The Mystery of the Missing Triple 7

bikezappa

I think the forum has covered all the possibilities/options.

jflail2

Pops sounds convinced that it was a catastrophic mid-air explosion, caused by who knows what. The lack of information is starting to border on crazy. I'm surprised the crowd sourcing efforts haven't produced anything to this point (though understandably someone has to weed through all the chaff to get to the wheat of those crowd sourcing efforts.)

zingo

tonyb wrote: »

Sounds like a "lost" episode, sucked out of thin air into an alternate universe.

It's a terrible situation and I pray for the families, but my first thought was, "Wasn't this the plot of Lost?"

Face

The cell phone part intrigues me and leads me to believe the plane did safely land somewhere. As for the condition of the passengers, it's safe to assume most if not all of them won't be returning home.

FTGV

Chinese sat images may have it in the South China sea.

George Grand

I hope they find Darrin's remote with the airplane.

bikezappa

Interesting report on NPR by a expert on commercial planes today. This 777 had maintenance before the flight but it was not
completed by Boeing. There was reports that there was structural issues with the communication system. This system could have
broken and caused breach in the fuselage and decompression. If that occurs the plane is instructed to fly back to the terminal. There is not enough oxygen in the masks that drop down to get back. The 777 is a very sophisticated plane and if it loses communication it starts to automatically shut down other systems. It could have shut down the oxygen system. The last statement by the expert was my condolences to the family of the passengers.

George Grand

bikezappa wrote: »

Interesting report on NPR by a expert on commercial planes today. This 777 had maintenance before the flight but it was not
completed by Boeing. There was reports that there was structural issues with the communication system. This system could have
broken and caused breach in the fuselage and decompression. If that occurs the plane is instructed to fly back to the terminal. There is not enough oxygen in the masks that drop down to get back. The 777 is a very sophisticated plane and if it loses communication it starts to automatically shut down other systems. It could have shut down the oxygen system. The last statement by the expert was my condolences to the family of the passengers.

The first thing on the checklist for a rapid decompression is to get the airplane down below 14,000 feet where we don't require supplemental oxygen.

nooshinjohn

The type of rapid decompression that would occur at 35000 feet on this particular aircraft, based upon FAA documentation, would be sudden and catastrophic, resulting in the loss of the aircraft. There would be no airplane left to fly down to 14000 feet.

tonyb

Man, this story gets deeper and deeper. Now this morning they are saying the engines send data for maintenance reasons every 30 minutes, only they were still sending that data 4 hours after the plane went missing. Which gives them roughly another 2000 miles of flight. That can even put them at Pakistan's borders.

With the somewhat soft start on the search, misdirection of the search area, the timing of info released, this was a big operation with many involved....but for one plane ? Over such a distance ? Seems to me if you wanted a plane, one more local was readily available.

Another question for you aviation nuts....why does the ability to turn off the transponders even exist ? Why does a pilot need that ability to begin with ? Shouldn't it be an always on type of thing ? Just curious in this day and age we give pilots that option still.

This plane is on the ground somewhere as I previously thought. The people may be used as human shields to avoid it being shot down in a future use of that plane. My guess of a target.....Israel. That's a worse case scenario. Could also be a simple hijacking, ransom the passengers or make demands for release of captured terrorists. Who knows...but the south China sea seems more and more likely a big wild goose chase.

DaveHo

My understanding is that the transponders are manually turned off when the plane is at the terminal. If you think about it, there really isn't a good way to automate this. If they where turned on/off based upon air speed, engine thrust,or some other parameter that would mean they'd get turned off if the planed crashed which they don't want.

tonyb

So whats the downside to leaving them on all the time, even when parked ?

rpf65

Whatever happened, I really don't think it was some terrorist act. Most of the passengers were from China. Sorry, but that country will not negotiate. Not big news to anybody.

Go back to the transponder. If it can be switched off, it can be damaged in flight. As anybody on this site knows, a switch can fail, opening the circuit. If, somehow, the crew was able to make land, and there are survivors, the plane has to be located. People will think the odds of being found are better if they remain at the crash site.

Not really up on cell phone technology, but if call is made to a phone, and it isn't in a reception area, it's my experience that it will ring and then go to voice mail. Ringing phones mean very little.

No way satellite will ever be credited for finding this missing plane, unless it's commercial. Why would any government give away that kind of info.

Conclusion is simple. Some type of onboard failure, be it mechanical, electrical, or structural, and the plane will be discovered by a ship or aircraft.

rpf65

tonyb wrote: »

So whats the downside to leaving them on all the time, even when parked ?

First thought is information overload for the air traffic controllers.

helipilotdoug

tonyb wrote: »

So whats the downside to leaving them on all the time, even when parked ?

Transponders should turned to standby when an aircraft is not moving. With so many aircraft in such a small area, it clutters up the radar and makes it difficult for the controllers. Transponders should be on during taxi and flight, but not when the aircraft is parked.

mhardy6647

rpf65 wrote: »

Whatever happened, I really don't think it was some terrorist act. Most of the passengers were from China. Sorry, but that country will not negotiate. Not big news to anybody...

I don't think that "modern terrorism" has anything to do with negotiation. The "911 hijackers" had no interest in negotiation.

nooshinjohn

I have some speculation as to what is playing out, but it is only that. So far it fits the narrative of a Tom Clancy novel. Right now, every asset we (and much of the rest of the world) surely is focused on finding this bird before it finds it's way to its next destination.

Tornado Red

Another thing with the transponders, isn't there one plus a back up? My understanding is if there is a failure of the first one, the pilot needs the ability to shut it down completely and start up the second one.

ZLTFUL

nooshinjohn wrote: »

I have some speculation as to what is playing out, but it is only that. So far it fits the narrative of a Tom Clancy novel. Right now, every asset we (and much of the rest of the world) surely is focused on finding this bird before it finds it's way to its next destination.

Japanese hostile takeover? I can see that.

nooshinjohn

Tornado Red wrote: »

Another thing with the transponders, isn't there one plus a back up? My understanding is if there is a failure of the first one, the pilot needs the ability to shut it down completely and start up the second one.

This is just my idea, but if the issue is ground clutter when the transponders are on when aircraft are on the ground, why could they not be linked to either the altimeter to come on at a prescribed altitude or come on when the wheels come up?

In this case, it appears we have a pilot or two that have stolen an airplane, and they know every conceivable way to make this thing vanish without a trace. We think we know now that everything was normal, until they signed off with a "good night" message to ATC. The flight then changed directions as the transponder signal was lost. Rolls Royce reports that their turbines were sending data back to them for analysis for at least 4 to 5 hours after loss of contact with ATC.

The questions thus becomes why would the pilots steal the aircraft and for what purpose? Where could a plane the size of a 777ER fly to within the given range of the aircraft, and what kind of destructive force could it represent if it is in the wrong hands?

The next question is who has the capability to use it? If the seats are stripped out of it, this aircraft type can haul over 100 TONS of cargo nearly 5500 miles.

This comes from a place called Quetta....
QUETTA - The Frontier Corps has foiled a terror attempt as it seized more than 100 tons of explosives during a raid here on Tuesday.
During a briefing to the media personnel, FC Commandant Colonel Maqbool Ahmed said the forces seized a huge quantity of explosives in a raid at a warehouse in New Addah area. He said the 104,480 kg explosives recovered from the hideout included potassium chloride, aluminium chloride, improvised explosive devices, detonators, circuit wires and other ammunition. He said that 10 suspects have also been arrested during the operation that lasted for more than one hour.
“All suspects are being interrogated,” he said. He said the accused had made secret rooms and planted explosive materials to carryout subversive activities in Quetta. He said that similar kind of explosive material was used in Hazara Town bombing on April 16, which had left more than 100 people dead.
Suspects told investigators that potassium chlorate and ammonium chlorate were packed with wires and detonators into vehicles at the compound, he said.
In another development, law enforcement agencies arrested dozens of suspects during various raids and targeted operations in Quetta.
Being tipped off, Frontier Corps, Police and Anti Terrorist Force carried out joint raids in various parts including Sariab, Kili Qambrani, Sabzal, Satellite Town and Western Bypass, arresting dozens of suspects. “Security forces have arrested scores of accused involved in terror activities, kidnapping for ransom and robbery,” said a senior official of Home Department, adding that Afghan nationals are also among the arrested suspects. Sources said the operations have been carried due to the deteriorating law and order in the capital. The accused are being investigated, police said adding the persons found innocent would soon be released. It may be mentioned here that the crime ratio has gone up in Quetta as two FC personnel were killed and another wounded by armed men at Sariab Road a couple of days back...............



They need to find this plane.

nooshinjohn

One last thing... the plane could be anywhere by now, but somewhere like Pakistan was well within range of this aircraft when it went wheels up out of Kuala Lumpur, as was North Korea.

Erik Tracy

Why would Boeing decline to comment on the statement that the engine transponders indicated a flight time of 5 hours - longer than when contact with the plane's transpsonders stopped?

I don't understand why they would not release what information they have.

adabro

It doesn't seem like any of the info released has been verified - every time some new claim is published it's discounted by someone else.

Seems like the only thing they know for sure is that 'it's missing'.

dkg999

If the plane has not crashed, and other scenarios are more accurate, then there is a high value to having whoever took the plane and is monitoring the media thinking that the search is an episode of the keystone cops. I feel sorry for the lone US citizen on the plane, however that does give the US a reason to have a special forces team standing by to rectify the situation.

stretchl

tonyb wrote: »

Indonesia is a hot bed of radical Muslim wackado's.

Nothing personal, dude, but this is one of the most inaccurate statements I've read in a long time.

Have you ever BEEN to Indonesia?

Damn, here I go down another rat hole thanks to nooshinwhatever... when will I learn?

stretchl

ps - If any of you conspiracy theorists are up for it I'll consider wagering any amount of money that the damned plane is not in Indonesia. Any takers?

tonyb

stretchl wrote: »

Nothing personal, dude, but this is one of the most inaccurate statements I've read in a long time.

Have you ever BEEN to Indonesia?

Damn, here I go down another rat hole thanks to nooshinwhatever... when will I learn?

Inaccurate ? How so ? I don't have to go to Alaska to know it's cold....do I ?

Indonesia holds the highest concentration of Muslims anywhere on the globe. That's a fact. Are they all radicals...no, but a growing portion is.

According to the Indonesian police, 55 terror suspects have been killed and 583 have been arrested during the period 2000-2010. The Indonesian government stresses the importance of combating terrorist cells within the country and finds itself in close cooperation with the United States and the Australian Federal Police to topple terrorists. In 2003 a special counter-terrorism squad, called Densus 88, was established (and is part of the Indonesian National Police). Densus 88 is funded by the American government and is trained by the CIA, FBI and US Secret Service. This unit has had considerable success in weakening the Jema'ah Islamiyah network.

The current various terrorist cells in Indonesia seem to operate independently from each other forming splinter groups. This is a change from the past; radical Muslims now prefer to operate in smaller networks instead of bigger ones (on a national scale) as it is much more difficult for the authorities to trace such smaller networks. Another difference with the past is that all these terrorist cells seem to have changed tactics regarding the target of their attacks. Previously, targets consisted mainly of western or foreign people and symbols of the western world, such as embassies and certain nightclubs or hotels that are frequently visited or owned by westerners. Since 2010, however, more and more attacks are directed towards symbols of the Indonesian state. In 2011 multiple attacks on Indonesian police officers happened throughout Indonesia, probably in reaction to the many arrests made by Densus 88.

Another new extremist organization in Indonesia is the Jemaah Anshorut Tauhid (JAT). It was founded by Abu Bakar Ba’asyir (co-founder of Jemaah Islamiyah) in 2008 and has been added to the US terror list in 2012 for multiple coordinated attacks against Indonesian civilians, police and military personnel. In September 2011 a suicide bomber of the JAT detonated explosives in a church in Central Java, wounding several people. The Indonesian police have also uncovered additional suicide plots (across Indonesia) by this group.


I believe I called it a "hotbed" of radical wackjobs.... didn't say the whole darn place was one. Next....

tonyb

As far as where the plane is....anyones guess at this point. No sense arguing over stupid stuff that nobody knows for sure.

stretchl

Tony, friend... you just proved that you need to get out more.

Googling and pasting from the first result you find does not constitute thoughtful debate.

http://www.indonesia-investments.com/nl/doing-business/risicos/radicale-islam/item245

audiocr381ve

stretchl wrote: »

Tony, friend... you just proved that you need to get out more.

Googling and pasting from the first result you find does not constitute thoughtful debate.

http://www.indonesia-investments.com/nl/doing-business/risicos/radicale-islam/item245

Yikes.

Very strange situation indeed.