Scary virus outbreak in China

mhardy6647

BlueFox wrote: »

There is one thing about this virus that perplexes me. The death rate is not high at all. I think it is around 2-3%, yet all governments are acting as if it is much higher. Not quite sure how to process that.

You and me both.
FWIW.

mhardy6647

Kex wrote: »

mhardy6647 wrote: »

...There is nothing that leads folks to making really poor decisions about investments than looking at one's holdings and thinking "Jeepers, I just lost fifty thousand dollars today"...

Many relevant observations in your post above, Mr. H., but truth be told: if one can truly say "Jeepers, I just lost fifty thousand dollars, then there would be a high probability that one would qualify as a HNWI (High Net Worth Individual, frequently defined as holding over $1 million in liquid assets (mostly meaning other than one’s residence), possibly even a VHNWI (V for “very”, or $5 million +), or even one of them nasty one percenters everyone loves to hate! 😳 (irrationally, one hastens to add, but that’s a long story)... in which case, one should know better, because:

• (A) One doesn’t really have too much to worry about in the grand scheme of things, and,
• (B) 50K is a small(ish) percentage of the aforementioned liquid assets, and finally,
• (C) One is likely to regain that loss within a reasonable timeframe.

So for the fearful investor (not a good combination, IMHO), the question remains: will Covid-19 significantly impact the world economy for more than just a few weeks?

Judging by the hifis "we" have and the cars "we" drive on this forum, I would assume many folks here fall into the categories you enumerate... or they're, perhaps, living beyond their means. That latter category of folks, I'd opine, has plenty to worry about -- but that was true before the current scare.

I believe (and I may be wrong) that Warren Buffett (or maybe H.L. Hunt or one of those other, old-school billionaires) once said that the difference between a rich person and a poor person was two cents.

A rich person, upon earning a dollar, spends 99 cents and saves a penny.
A poor person, upon earning a dollar, spends $1.01.

Apocryphal or not, I feel there's some profundity in that little aphorism.

I really don't mean to be glib, and I do sometimes ponder a future that involves living in a cardboard box and pushin' around a shopping cart. I don't think that this current virus scare is gonna be the straw that breaks the camel's back -- at least in our case.

Might it precipitate the long-overdue recession? Absolutely. Will the economy recover and thrive afterwards? Very, very likely.

Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future outcomes -- we can but play the percentages.

motorhead43026

^^Rich people hoard money, don't be fooled

mhardy6647

The really rich seem to hoard it until they realize that they and their descendents (if any) will never spend it all -- then some of them get pretty generous. To his credit, Bill Gates is one. Having had some dealings (albeit in only a supportive way) with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in a not so distant past life, I was pretty impressed by their interests and the resources they were eager to invest in them.

BlueFox

What is an ‘HNWI’?

Edit: Never mind. High Net Worth Individual. Thanks Google.

txcoastal1

BlueFox wrote: »

What is an ‘HNWI’?

Edit: Never mind. High Net Worth Individual. Thanks Google.

It was also explained above, and not in italics

pitdogg2

LOOK OUT Bud !!! You're going to hit by the sky...

Sit back fire up the bong and freakin relax my man

motorhead43026

mhardy6647 wrote: »

The really rich seem to hoard it until they realize that they and their descendents (if any) will never spend it all -- then some of them get pretty generous. To his credit, Bill Gates is one. Having had some dealings (albeit in only a supportive way) with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in a not so distant past life, I was pretty impressed by their interests and the resources they were eager to invest in them.

I should have made it clear I was referencing the likes of banks and corporations as the "rich". Those that dictate and benefit the most from government policy, not individuals.

And yes there are many ultra wealthy individuals that donate to the common good.

nooshinjohn

what Is happening to us... There used to be a day when only the military spoke in acronyms and hieroglyphics. Now everyone does it.

dromunds

I heard Bloomberg spent something over $300-400 million of his own money for television commercials, and then I heard yesterday that doesn't even amount to the interest payment on his holdings.

treitz3

That's like you or I spending a Benjamin. He's got some money, that's fo' sho'.

Tom

BlueFox

what Is happening to us... There used to be a day when only the military spoke in acronyms and hieroglyphics. Now everyone does it.

Yes, and they expect everyone to know the meaning of their acronyms.

Jstas

motorhead43026

Quite the selloff today. Volume was up 57% above the daily average.

mhardy6647

Kex wrote: »

mhardy6647 wrote: »

Judging by the hifis "we" have and the cars "we" drive on this forum, I would assume many folks here fall into the categories you enumerate...

Oh, neither cars nor audio gear are liquid assets, so, one can drive a $70K truck (leased or bought on credit) and buy $5K speakers, but still not be a HNWI... 😉

Sadly, that's true -- I wouldn't consider it a best practice, though.

I also forgot to mention houses... although my sense of house values is a little warped living in the Northeast. Pretty much anything reasonable is high six figures in this part of the world (which, of course, is bargain-priced for folks from the Bay Area). A very nice (ten million-ish) property up the hill from us was bought by some quite nice folks from the Bay Area a year or so back. They probably had a townhouse on the Peninsula

PS Not lookin' at the portfolio 'paper' valuation this afternoon

mhardy6647

Kex wrote: »

News update:

The French health ministry announced over the weekend that they released their last patient, who was cured and allowed to go home. He is not contagious, according to the communiqué.

But since the market is spooked...

Potential for a Global Recession from COVID-19

Cured, you say?
I mean, maybe they dosed him with something, but I imagine his (or her) immune system did most of the heavy lifting.

mhardy6647

Kex wrote: »

mhardy6647 wrote: »

PS Not lookin' at the portfolio 'paper' valuation this afternoon

Step away from the computer, Mrs. H.! Step away from the computer! 😉

She just sat down and started leafin' through hers
She needs to be cured of that bad habit (ahem)

EDIT: She peeked

I chided her when she told me the number. I chided her.
She did note, though (and I concur!) that she's glad we sold some stock last week to help recharge our cash reserves for the year.

BlueFox

Market down 1000 today. Will it recover tomorrow, or continue down? The real question is when will this virus strike the US? I suspect when that happens the market will really collapse.

mhardy6647

nooshinjohn wrote: »

what Is happening to us... There used to be a day when only the military spoke in acronyms and hieroglyphics. Now everyone does it.

Try bein' a scientist some time.
Or read the abstract to our son's PhD thesis in mathematics. There are a few groupings of letters that I can reliably identify as words.

pitdogg2

Thank God we do not have the Flu here...... Can you just imagine what kind of pandemonium a good Flu outbreak could wreck ???

OH wait many more are dying from the flu here....

never mind.... carry on The Sky is falling look OUT...

treitz3

Gotta love all the doomsday crap...

Tom

kevhed72

As the late, great Al Czervik once said....BUY BUY BUY! It also seems many media outfits are doing their usual fear mongering to boost ratings.

txcoastal1

Bear markets are for the rich
Buy Buy Buy is correct

xschop

Isn't there a Netflix series called Pandemic that mimics current situation?

Bill And Melinda Gates Behind Global Pandemic Excercise Focusing On Coronavirus

Meanwhile, on Oct. 18, 2019, also before the outbreak, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and the World Economic Forum co-hosted an event in NYC where “policymakers, business leaders, and health officials” worked together on a simulated coronavirus outbreak.

Titled the “Event 201” pandemic, the high-level pandemic exercise “dropped participants right in the midst of an uncontrolled coronavirus outbreak that was spreading like wildfire out of South America to wreak worldwide havoc.”

“In the simulation, CAPS (the coronavirus) resulted in a death toll of 65 million people within 18 months,” according to John Hopkins University.

A video highlight reel from the event shows fictional newscasters from “GNN” discuss how the hypothetical immune-resistant virus (nicknamed CAPS) was crippling trade and travel, sending the global economy into freefall.

It just so happens that a professor from Imperial College London recently warned the coronavirus has the same kill rate as the Spanish flu, which claimed the lives of 20-50 million people in 1918.

marvda1

pitdogg2 wrote: »

Thank God we do not have the Flu here...... Can you just imagine what kind of pandemonium a good Flu outbreak could wreck ???

OH wait many more are dying from the flu here....

never mind.... carry on The Sky is falling look OUT...

don't mention the flu, you'll get jumped on to start your own thread.

come to think of it the person who jumped on me for mentioning the flu has turned the thread into a financial thread

pitdogg2

IIRC that Spanish flu killed those who had the best immune systems as their body went overboard to combat it which resulted in their death.

tonyb

xschop wrote: »

It just so happens that a professor from Imperial College London recently warned the coronavirus has the same kill rate as the Spanish flu, which claimed the lives of 20-50 million people in 1918.

There is no where near the same kill rate. Roughly 80k cases so far worldwide of the CV, and I don't think we hit 100 deaths yet.

The flu is actually a better comparison. 14k have died from the flu and both viruses kill those with weakened immune systems. Puts the elderly at high risk.

halen

tonyb wrote: »

xschop wrote: »

It just so happens that a professor from Imperial College London recently warned the coronavirus has the same kill rate as the Spanish flu, which claimed the lives of 20-50 million people in 1918.

There is no where near the same kill rate. Roughly 80k cases so far worldwide of the CV, and I don't think we hit 100 deaths yet.

The flu is actually a better comparison. 14k have died from the flu and both viruses kill those with weakened immune systems. Puts the elderly at high risk.

I would also say toddlers.

xschop

tonyb wrote: »

xschop wrote: »

It just so happens that a professor from Imperial College London recently warned the coronavirus has the same kill rate as the Spanish flu, which claimed the lives of 20-50 million people in 1918.

There is no where near the same kill rate. Roughly 80k cases so far worldwide of the CV, and I don't think we hit 100 deaths yet.

The flu is actually a better comparison. 14k have died from the flu and both viruses kill those with weakened immune systems. Puts the elderly at high risk.

Let's hope not. That was a quote from Intellihub website. However, if such a similar pandemic arose now, the % of population then compared to world pop. now, the numbers could be close.

tonyb

Never say never, right. A global pandemic could happen but highly unlikely at this point. Could be what we are witnessing is trial runs. Devious minds will do devious things to accomplish their goals.