Scary virus outbreak in China
Comments
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Its an election year, folks. I would be very surprised if the market tanked.
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- A 10% market drop is considered a correction.
- A 20% drop is considered a bear market.
Look at the chart below, representing the S&P 500 (far more useful than the DJI 30 in my opinion, which is ridiculously narrow).- The correction at the end of 2018 (1) touched on bear market territory... That was painful! 🤕 It also provided multiple opportunities for the brave and courageous.
- The two major pullbacks early in 2019 (2) were also unpleasant, but anyone who couldn’t handle the pain from those simply should not be investing, because such pullbacks are inevitable, and in many cases, they can be a gift for entering the market.
- This week’s pullback (3) is peanuts in comparison. 🥜
Yeah, you're right -- the S&P is a better representation; I always default to the DJIA because I'm lazy
I am (still) none too worried about the markets... but we're (I think) sensibly diversified given our age and status (i.e., mostly retired).
When the stock market gets a little metastable, I always tell folks (including Mrs. H) don't look at your portfolios! There is nothing that leads folks to making really poor decisions about investments than looking at one's holdings and thinking "Jeepers, I just lost fifty thousand dollars today". Until you sell, it's a paper loss. It's not real -- until one does something with/about it. Sell when the asset's down, and now it's a real loss. Sometimes one needs some capital losses to write off capital gains for tax purposes. Sometimes.
Paper gains, likewise, ain't real.
For some reason, so many folks buy high, and sell low. Not a great long term strategy.Its an election year, folks. I would be very surprised if the market tanked.
oh it might, depending on what happens that first Tuesday in November.
Before then, naaah, not bloody likely. Not impossible, but not bloody likely.
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A Brit epidemiologist suggested a 24 day incubation.Don't take experimental gene therapies from known eugenicists.
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Many relevant observations in your post above, Mr. H., but truth be told: if one can truly say "Jeepers, I just lost fifty thousand dollars, then there would be a high probability that one would qualify as a HNWI (High Net Worth Individual, frequently defined as holding over $1 million in liquid assets (mostly meaning other than one’s residence), possibly even a VHNWI (V for “very”, or $5 million +), or even one of them nasty one percenters everyone loves to hate! 😳 (irrationally, one hastens to add, but that’s a long story)... in which case, one should know better, because:mhardy6647 wrote: »...There is nothing that leads folks to making really poor decisions about investments than looking at one's holdings and thinking "Jeepers, I just lost fifty thousand dollars today"...- (A) One doesn’t really have too much to worry about in the grand scheme of things, and,
- (B) 50K is a small(ish) percentage of the aforementioned liquid assets, and finally,
- (C) One is likely to regain that loss within a reasonable timeframe.
Alea jacta est! -
Got out of the market just in time. This is only going to get worse before it gets better, and no telling how long that will be. When it hits in the US is when the market will really drop out.
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There is one thing about this virus that perplexes me. The death rate is not high at all. I think it is around 2-3%, yet all governments are acting as if it is much higher. Not quite sure how to process that.Lumin X1 file player, Westminster Labs interconnect cable
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WHO: COVID-19 Not a PandemicThe World Health Organization said Monday that the coronavirus that broke out in Wuhan, China late last year is not a pandemic. Director General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the virus, named COVID-19, is not spreading in an uncontained way. "What we are seeing are epidemics in different parts of the world," he told reporters on a conference call. The WHO said earlier there are now 79,339 cases of COVID-19 in 30 countries and 2,619 deaths. The rapid uptick in the number of COVID-19 cases in Iran, Italy, and South Korea over the weekend sent markets tumbling Monday over concerns that the outbreak of the new coronavirus would turn into a pandemic.Alea jacta est!
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There is one thing about this virus that perplexes me. The death rate is not high at all. I think it is around 2-3%, yet all governments are acting as if it is much higher. Not quite sure how to process that.
You and me both.
FWIW. -
Many relevant observations in your post above, Mr. H., but truth be told: if one can truly say "Jeepers, I just lost fifty thousand dollars, then there would be a high probability that one would qualify as a HNWI (High Net Worth Individual, frequently defined as holding over $1 million in liquid assets (mostly meaning other than one’s residence), possibly even a VHNWI (V for “very”, or $5 million +), or even one of them nasty one percenters everyone loves to hate! 😳 (irrationally, one hastens to add, but that’s a long story)... in which case, one should know better, because:mhardy6647 wrote: »...There is nothing that leads folks to making really poor decisions about investments than looking at one's holdings and thinking "Jeepers, I just lost fifty thousand dollars today"...- (A) One doesn’t really have too much to worry about in the grand scheme of things, and,
- (B) 50K is a small(ish) percentage of the aforementioned liquid assets, and finally,
- (C) One is likely to regain that loss within a reasonable timeframe.
Judging by the hifis "we" have and the cars "we" drive on this forum, I would assume many folks here fall into the categories you enumerate... or they're, perhaps, living beyond their means. That latter category of folks, I'd opine, has plenty to worry about -- but that was true before the current scare.
I believe (and I may be wrong) that Warren Buffett (or maybe H.L. Hunt or one of those other, old-school billionaires) once said that the difference between a rich person and a poor person was two cents.
A rich person, upon earning a dollar, spends 99 cents and saves a penny.
A poor person, upon earning a dollar, spends $1.01.
Apocryphal or not, I feel there's some profundity in that little aphorism.
I really don't mean to be glib, and I do sometimes ponder a future that involves living in a cardboard box and pushin' around a shopping cart. I don't think that this current virus scare is gonna be the straw that breaks the camel's back -- at least in our case.
Might it precipitate the long-overdue recession? Absolutely. Will the economy recover and thrive afterwards? Very, very likely.
Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future outcomes -- we can but play the percentages.
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^^Rich people hoard money, don't be fooledThe best way to predict the future is to invent it.
It is imperative that we recognize that an opinion is not a fact. -
The really rich seem to hoard it until they realize that they and their descendents (if any) will never spend it all -- then some of them get pretty generous. To his credit, Bill Gates is one. Having had some dealings (albeit in only a supportive way) with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in a not so distant past life, I was pretty impressed by their interests and the resources they were eager to invest in them.
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Oh, neither cars nor audio gear are liquid assets, so, one can drive a $70K truck (leased or bought on credit) and buy $5K speakers, but still not be a HNWI... 😉mhardy6647 wrote: »Judging by the hifis "we" have and the cars "we" drive on this forum, I would assume many folks here fall into the categories you enumerate...Alea jacta est! -
News update:
The French health ministry announced over the weekend that they released their last patient, who was cured and allowed to go home. He is not contagious, according to the communiqué.
But since the market is spooked...
Potential for a Global Recession from COVID-19Alea jacta est! -
What is an ‘HNWI’?
Edit: Never mind. High Net Worth Individual. Thanks Google.Lumin X1 file player, Westminster Labs interconnect cable
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What is an ‘HNWI’?
Edit: Never mind. High Net Worth Individual. Thanks Google.
It was also explained above, and not in italics
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erat interfectorem cesar et **** dictatorem dicere a -
Explained in an earlier post:What is an ‘HNWI’?- HNWI = High Net Worth Individual, with liquid assets in excess of $1M
- VHNWI = Very High Net Worth Individual, with liquid assets in excess of $5M
- UHNWI = Ultra High Net Worth Individual, with liquid assets in excess of $30M
Alea jacta est! -
LOOK OUT Bud !!! You're going to hit by the sky...
Sit back fire up the bong and freakin relax my man
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mhardy6647 wrote: »The really rich seem to hoard it until they realize that they and their descendents (if any) will never spend it all -- then some of them get pretty generous. To his credit, Bill Gates is one. Having had some dealings (albeit in only a supportive way) with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in a not so distant past life, I was pretty impressed by their interests and the resources they were eager to invest in them.
I should have made it clear I was referencing the likes of banks and corporations as the "rich". Those that dictate and benefit the most from government policy, not individuals.
And yes there are many ultra wealthy individuals that donate to the common good.
The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
It is imperative that we recognize that an opinion is not a fact. -
what Is happening to us... There used to be a day when only the military spoke in acronyms and hieroglyphics. Now everyone does it.The Gear... Carver "Statement" Mono-blocks, Mcintosh C2300 Arcam AVR20, Oppo UDP-203 4K Blu-ray player, Sony XBR70x850B 4k, Polk Audio Legend L800 with height modules, L400 Center Channel Polk audio AB800 "in-wall" surrounds. Marantz MM7025 stereo amp. Simaudio Moon 680d DSD
“When once a Republic is corrupted, there is no possibility of remedying any of the growing evils but by removing the corruption and restoring its lost principles; every other correction is either useless or a new evil.”— Thomas Jefferson -
I heard Bloomberg spent something over $300-400 million of his own money for television commercials, and then I heard yesterday that doesn't even amount to the interest payment on his holdings.
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That's like you or I spending a Benjamin. He's got some money, that's fo' sho'.
Tom~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~ -
what Is happening to us... There used to be a day when only the military spoke in acronyms and hieroglyphics. Now everyone does it.
Yes, and they expect everyone to know the meaning of their acronyms. Lumin X1 file player, Westminster Labs interconnect cable
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Expert Moron Extraordinaire
You're just jealous 'cause the voices don't talk to you! -
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Quite the selloff today. Volume was up 57% above the daily average.The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
It is imperative that we recognize that an opinion is not a fact. -
The financial ramifications from the coronavirus are impossible to pinpoint because no one knows how long this will last or how far it will spread. The virus is too unpredictable to make accurate assertions about the markets or global economy. And even if we did know the full extent of the potential damage, you never know how the market will react to the news. Any prognostications as to the economic or market impact at this point would be complete guesses.
It’s easy to tell people not to panic when something like this flares up but the truth is panicking is never the right move to make when it comes to managing your money. Trying to predict the unpredictable has one predictable outcome—it increases the odds of making a mistake with your portfolio.
The S&P 500 is just 4% from all-time highs. So instead of panicking, the best move to make right now would be a reassessment of your pain threshold in the markets. If you can’t handle the gyrations involved from the uncertainty surrounding something like this when markets are near all-time highs, there’s no way you’ll be able to stay the course when markets get hit for real.
Making changes to your investment stance based on news headlines is rarely the right move. But sometimes the news headlines can provide a dose of reality for those investors who miscalibrated their tolerance for volatility and potential losses in the markets.
Extract from Fortune ArticleAlea jacta est! -
Oh, neither cars nor audio gear are liquid assets, so, one can drive a $70K truck (leased or bought on credit) and buy $5K speakers, but still not be a HNWI... 😉mhardy6647 wrote: »Judging by the hifis "we" have and the cars "we" drive on this forum, I would assume many folks here fall into the categories you enumerate...
Sadly, that's true -- I wouldn't consider it a best practice, though.
I also forgot to mention houses... although my sense of house values is a little warped living in the Northeast. Pretty much anything reasonable is high six figures in this part of the world (which, of course, is bargain-priced for folks from the Bay Area). A very nice (ten million-ish) property up the hill from us was bought by some quite nice folks from the Bay Area a year or so back. They probably had a townhouse on the Peninsula
PS Not lookin' at the portfolio 'paper' valuation this afternoon
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News update:
The French health ministry announced over the weekend that they released their last patient, who was cured and allowed to go home. He is not contagious, according to the communiqué.
But since the market is spooked...
Potential for a Global Recession from COVID-19
Cured, you say?
I mean, maybe they dosed him with something, but I imagine his (or her) immune system did most of the heavy lifting.
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Maybe not the best choice of words. Would you prefer “recovered”? 😉mhardy6647 wrote: »Cured, you say?
I mean, maybe they dosed him with something, but I imagine his (or her) immune system did most of the heavy lifting.
In any case, from the twelve cases reported in that country, one aged Chinese tourist died. Everyone else has since recovered (MH Approved Terminology™). At least one patient in Bordeaux is thought to have received an anti-viral treatment from Gilead Sciences of Fremont (CA), but it’s not clear what role that might have played in his recovery (MH Approved Terminology™).Alea jacta est!
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