Scary virus outbreak in China

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  • Viking64
    Viking64 Posts: 6,727
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    Kex wrote: »
    in hospital.

    QUITE!


    (No, that isn't a misspelling of "quiet". ) :p
  • dromunds
    dromunds Posts: 9,993
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    Its an election year, folks. I would be very surprised if the market tanked.
  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 33,163
    edited February 2020
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    Kex wrote: »
    1. A 10% market drop is considered a correction.
    2. A 20% drop is considered a bear market.
    We are nowhere near those levels. In fact, there were a couple of pullbacks in 2019 that were far worse than this one thus far, and we witnessed something significantly more painful at the end of 2018 (the worst pullback since the Great Recession in 08/09).

    Look at the chart below, representing the S&P 500 (far more useful than the DJI 30 in my opinion, which is ridiculously narrow).
    • The correction at the end of 2018 (1) touched on bear market territory... That was painful! 🤕 It also provided multiple opportunities for the brave and courageous.
    • The two major pullbacks early in 2019 (2) were also unpleasant, but anyone who couldn’t handle the pain from those simply should not be investing, because such pullbacks are inevitable, and in many cases, they can be a gift for entering the market.
    • This week’s pullback (3) is peanuts in comparison. 🥜

    o2yj99wtad43.jpeg

    Yeah, you're right -- the S&P is a better representation; I always default to the DJIA because I'm lazy :p

    I am (still) none too worried about the markets... but we're (I think) sensibly diversified given our age and status (i.e., mostly retired).

    When the stock market gets a little metastable, I always tell folks (including Mrs. H) don't look at your portfolios! There is nothing that leads folks to making really poor decisions about investments than looking at one's holdings and thinking "Jeepers, I just lost fifty thousand dollars today". Until you sell, it's a paper loss. It's not real -- until one does something with/about it. Sell when the asset's down, and now it's a real loss. Sometimes one needs some capital losses to write off capital gains for tax purposes. Sometimes.

    Paper gains, likewise, ain't real. :)

    For some reason, so many folks buy high, and sell low. Not a great long term strategy.

    dromunds wrote: »
    Its an election year, folks. I would be very surprised if the market tanked.

    oh it might, depending on what happens that first Tuesday in November.
    Before then, naaah, not bloody likely. Not impossible, but not bloody likely.
    :|

  • xschop
    xschop Posts: 4,755
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    A Brit epidemiologist suggested a 24 day incubation.
    Don't take experimental gene therapies from known eugenicists.
  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,943
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    mhardy6647 wrote: »
    ...There is nothing that leads folks to making really poor decisions about investments than looking at one's holdings and thinking "Jeepers, I just lost fifty thousand dollars today"...
    Many relevant observations in your post above, Mr. H., but truth be told: if one can truly say "Jeepers, I just lost fifty thousand dollars, then there would be a high probability that one would qualify as a HNWI (High Net Worth Individual, frequently defined as holding over $1 million in liquid assets (mostly meaning other than one’s residence), possibly even a VHNWI (V for “very”, or $5 million +), or even one of them nasty one percenters everyone loves to hate! 😳 (irrationally, one hastens to add, but that’s a long story)... in which case, one should know better, because:
    • (A) One doesn’t really have too much to worry about in the grand scheme of things, and,
    • (B) 50K is a small(ish) percentage of the aforementioned liquid assets, and finally,
    • (C) One is likely to regain that loss within a reasonable timeframe.
    So for the fearful investor (not a good combination, IMHO), the question remains: will Covid-19 significantly impact the world economy for more than just a few weeks?
    Alea jacta est!
  • BlueFox
    BlueFox Posts: 15,251
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    Got out of the market just in time. This is only going to get worse before it gets better, and no telling how long that will be. When it hits in the US is when the market will really drop out.

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  • BlueFox
    BlueFox Posts: 15,251
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    There is one thing about this virus that perplexes me. The death rate is not high at all. I think it is around 2-3%, yet all governments are acting as if it is much higher. Not quite sure how to process that.
    Lumin X1 file player, Westminster Labs interconnect cable
    Sony XA-5400ES SACD; Pass XP-22 pre; X600.5 amps
    Magico S5 MKII Mcast Rose speakers; SPOD spikes

    Shunyata Triton v3/Typhon QR on source, Denali 2000 (2) on amps
    Shunyata Sigma XLR analog ICs, Sigma speaker cables
    Shunyata Sigma HC (2), Sigma Analog, Sigma Digital, Z Anaconda (3) power cables

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  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,943
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    WHO: COVID-19 Not a Pandemic
    The World Health Organization said Monday that the coronavirus that broke out in Wuhan, China late last year is not a pandemic. Director General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the virus, named COVID-19, is not spreading in an uncontained way. "What we are seeing are epidemics in different parts of the world," he told reporters on a conference call. The WHO said earlier there are now 79,339 cases of COVID-19 in 30 countries and 2,619 deaths. The rapid uptick in the number of COVID-19 cases in Iran, Italy, and South Korea over the weekend sent markets tumbling Monday over concerns that the outbreak of the new coronavirus would turn into a pandemic.
    Alea jacta est!
  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 33,163
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    BlueFox wrote: »
    There is one thing about this virus that perplexes me. The death rate is not high at all. I think it is around 2-3%, yet all governments are acting as if it is much higher. Not quite sure how to process that.

    You and me both.
    FWIW.
  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 33,163
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    Kex wrote: »
    mhardy6647 wrote: »
    ...There is nothing that leads folks to making really poor decisions about investments than looking at one's holdings and thinking "Jeepers, I just lost fifty thousand dollars today"...
    Many relevant observations in your post above, Mr. H., but truth be told: if one can truly say "Jeepers, I just lost fifty thousand dollars, then there would be a high probability that one would qualify as a HNWI (High Net Worth Individual, frequently defined as holding over $1 million in liquid assets (mostly meaning other than one’s residence), possibly even a VHNWI (V for “very”, or $5 million +), or even one of them nasty one percenters everyone loves to hate! 😳 (irrationally, one hastens to add, but that’s a long story)... in which case, one should know better, because:
    • (A) One doesn’t really have too much to worry about in the grand scheme of things, and,
    • (B) 50K is a small(ish) percentage of the aforementioned liquid assets, and finally,
    • (C) One is likely to regain that loss within a reasonable timeframe.
    So for the fearful investor (not a good combination, IMHO), the question remains: will Covid-19 significantly impact the world economy for more than just a few weeks?

    Judging by the hifis "we" have and the cars "we" drive on this forum, I would assume many folks here fall into the categories you enumerate... or they're, perhaps, living beyond their means. That latter category of folks, I'd opine, has plenty to worry about -- but that was true before the current scare.

    I believe (and I may be wrong) that Warren Buffett (or maybe H.L. Hunt or one of those other, old-school billionaires) once said that the difference between a rich person and a poor person was two cents.

    A rich person, upon earning a dollar, spends 99 cents and saves a penny.
    A poor person, upon earning a dollar, spends $1.01.

    Apocryphal or not, I feel there's some profundity in that little aphorism.

    I really don't mean to be glib, and I do sometimes ponder a future that involves living in a cardboard box and pushin' around a shopping cart. I don't think that this current virus scare is gonna be the straw that breaks the camel's back -- at least in our case.

    Might it precipitate the long-overdue recession? Absolutely. Will the economy recover and thrive afterwards? Very, very likely.

    Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future outcomes -- we can but play the percentages.

  • motorhead43026
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    ^^Rich people hoard money, don't be fooled
    2 channel: Anthem 225 Integrated amp; Parasound Ztuner; TechnicsTT SL1350; Vincent PHO-8 phono pre; Marantz CD6005 spinner; Polk SDA2BTL's; LAT International speaker cables, ZU Mission IC's and power cables all into a PS Audio Dectet Power center.

    Other; M10 series II, M7C's, Hafler XL600 amp, RB-980BX, Parasound HCA-1500 amp , P5 preamp, all in storage. All vintage Polk have had crossover rebuilds and tweeter upgrades.

    The best way to predict the future is to invent it.

    It is imperative that we recognize that an opinion is not a fact.

    Imagine making politics your entire personality.
  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 33,163
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    The really rich seem to hoard it until they realize that they and their descendents (if any) will never spend it all -- then some of them get pretty generous. To his credit, Bill Gates is one. Having had some dealings (albeit in only a supportive way) with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in a not so distant past life, I was pretty impressed by their interests and the resources they were eager to invest in them.
  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,943
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    mhardy6647 wrote: »
    Judging by the hifis "we" have and the cars "we" drive on this forum, I would assume many folks here fall into the categories you enumerate...
    Oh, neither cars nor audio gear are liquid assets, so, one can drive a $70K truck (leased or bought on credit) and buy $5K speakers, but still not be a HNWI... 😉
    Alea jacta est!
  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,943
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    News update:

    The French health ministry announced over the weekend that they released their last patient, who was cured and allowed to go home. He is not contagious, according to the communiqué.

    But since the market is spooked...

    Potential for a Global Recession from COVID-19
    Alea jacta est!
  • BlueFox
    BlueFox Posts: 15,251
    edited February 2020
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    What is an ‘HNWI’?

    Edit: Never mind. High Net Worth Individual. Thanks Google.
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  • txcoastal1
    txcoastal1 Posts: 13,137
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    BlueFox wrote: »
    What is an ‘HNWI’?

    Edit: Never mind. High Net Worth Individual. Thanks Google.

    It was also explained above, and not in italics

    2-channel: Modwright KWI-200 Integrated, Dynaudio C1-II Signatures
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    erat interfectorem cesar et **** dictatorem dicere a
  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,943
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    BlueFox wrote: »
    What is an ‘HNWI’?
    Explained in an earlier post:
    • HNWI = High Net Worth Individual, with liquid assets in excess of $1M
    • VHNWI = Very High Net Worth Individual, with liquid assets in excess of $5M
    • UHNWI = Ultra High Net Worth Individual, with liquid assets in excess of $30M
    Liquid assets do not include a primary residence, vehicles, audio gear, or anything else that would take time to liquidate. Investments can typically be liquidated in seconds (well, investments managed by a financial advisor, or mutual funds might take 24 hours or longer).
    Alea jacta est!
  • pitdogg2
    pitdogg2 Posts: 24,670
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    LOOK OUT Bud !!! You're going to hit by the sky...

    Sit back fire up the bong and freakin relax my man B)
  • motorhead43026
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    mhardy6647 wrote: »
    The really rich seem to hoard it until they realize that they and their descendents (if any) will never spend it all -- then some of them get pretty generous. To his credit, Bill Gates is one. Having had some dealings (albeit in only a supportive way) with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in a not so distant past life, I was pretty impressed by their interests and the resources they were eager to invest in them.


    I should have made it clear I was referencing the likes of banks and corporations as the "rich". Those that dictate and benefit the most from government policy, not individuals.

    And yes there are many ultra wealthy individuals that donate to the common good.
    2 channel: Anthem 225 Integrated amp; Parasound Ztuner; TechnicsTT SL1350; Vincent PHO-8 phono pre; Marantz CD6005 spinner; Polk SDA2BTL's; LAT International speaker cables, ZU Mission IC's and power cables all into a PS Audio Dectet Power center.

    Other; M10 series II, M7C's, Hafler XL600 amp, RB-980BX, Parasound HCA-1500 amp , P5 preamp, all in storage. All vintage Polk have had crossover rebuilds and tweeter upgrades.

    The best way to predict the future is to invent it.

    It is imperative that we recognize that an opinion is not a fact.

    Imagine making politics your entire personality.
  • nooshinjohn
    nooshinjohn Posts: 25,169
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    what Is happening to us... There used to be a day when only the military spoke in acronyms and hieroglyphics. Now everyone does it.
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  • dromunds
    dromunds Posts: 9,993
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    I heard Bloomberg spent something over $300-400 million of his own money for television commercials, and then I heard yesterday that doesn't even amount to the interest payment on his holdings.
  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 18,473
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    That's like you or I spending a Benjamin. He's got some money, that's fo' sho'.

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • BlueFox
    BlueFox Posts: 15,251
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    what Is happening to us... There used to be a day when only the military spoke in acronyms and hieroglyphics. Now everyone does it.

    Yes, and they expect everyone to know the meaning of their acronyms. :)
    Lumin X1 file player, Westminster Labs interconnect cable
    Sony XA-5400ES SACD; Pass XP-22 pre; X600.5 amps
    Magico S5 MKII Mcast Rose speakers; SPOD spikes

    Shunyata Triton v3/Typhon QR on source, Denali 2000 (2) on amps
    Shunyata Sigma XLR analog ICs, Sigma speaker cables
    Shunyata Sigma HC (2), Sigma Analog, Sigma Digital, Z Anaconda (3) power cables

    Mapleshade Samson V.3 four shelf solid maple rack, Micropoint brass footers
    Three 20 amp circuits.
  • Jstas
    Jstas Posts: 14,718
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    old.jpg
    Expert Moron Extraordinaire

    You're just jealous 'cause the voices don't talk to you!
  • motorhead43026
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    Quite the selloff today. Volume was up 57% above the daily average.
    2 channel: Anthem 225 Integrated amp; Parasound Ztuner; TechnicsTT SL1350; Vincent PHO-8 phono pre; Marantz CD6005 spinner; Polk SDA2BTL's; LAT International speaker cables, ZU Mission IC's and power cables all into a PS Audio Dectet Power center.

    Other; M10 series II, M7C's, Hafler XL600 amp, RB-980BX, Parasound HCA-1500 amp , P5 preamp, all in storage. All vintage Polk have had crossover rebuilds and tweeter upgrades.

    The best way to predict the future is to invent it.

    It is imperative that we recognize that an opinion is not a fact.

    Imagine making politics your entire personality.
  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,943
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    The financial ramifications from the coronavirus are impossible to pinpoint because no one knows how long this will last or how far it will spread. The virus is too unpredictable to make accurate assertions about the markets or global economy. And even if we did know the full extent of the potential damage, you never know how the market will react to the news. Any prognostications as to the economic or market impact at this point would be complete guesses.

    It’s easy to tell people not to panic when something like this flares up but the truth is panicking is never the right move to make when it comes to managing your money. Trying to predict the unpredictable has one predictable outcome—it increases the odds of making a mistake with your portfolio.

    The S&P 500 is just 4% from all-time highs. So instead of panicking, the best move to make right now would be a reassessment of your pain threshold in the markets. If you can’t handle the gyrations involved from the uncertainty surrounding something like this when markets are near all-time highs, there’s no way you’ll be able to stay the course when markets get hit for real.

    Making changes to your investment stance based on news headlines is rarely the right move. But sometimes the news headlines can provide a dose of reality for those investors who miscalibrated their tolerance for volatility and potential losses in the markets.

    Extract from Fortune Article
    Alea jacta est!
  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 33,163
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    Kex wrote: »
    mhardy6647 wrote: »
    Judging by the hifis "we" have and the cars "we" drive on this forum, I would assume many folks here fall into the categories you enumerate...
    Oh, neither cars nor audio gear are liquid assets, so, one can drive a $70K truck (leased or bought on credit) and buy $5K speakers, but still not be a HNWI... 😉

    Sadly, that's true -- I wouldn't consider it a best practice, though. :(

    I also forgot to mention houses... although my sense of house values is a little warped living in the Northeast. Pretty much anything reasonable is high six figures in this part of the world (which, of course, is bargain-priced for folks from the Bay Area). A very nice (ten million-ish) property up the hill from us was bought by some quite nice folks from the Bay Area a year or so back. They probably had a townhouse on the Peninsula ;)

    PS Not lookin' at the portfolio 'paper' valuation this afternoon ;)
  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 33,163
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    Kex wrote: »
    News update:

    The French health ministry announced over the weekend that they released their last patient, who was cured and allowed to go home. He is not contagious, according to the communiqué.

    But since the market is spooked...

    Potential for a Global Recession from COVID-19

    Cured, you say?
    I mean, maybe they dosed him with something, but I imagine his (or her) immune system did most of the heavy lifting. :|

  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,943
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    mhardy6647 wrote: »
    Cured, you say?
    I mean, maybe they dosed him with something, but I imagine his (or her) immune system did most of the heavy lifting. :|
    Maybe not the best choice of words. Would you prefer “recovered”? 😉

    In any case, from the twelve cases reported in that country, one aged Chinese tourist died. Everyone else has since recovered (MH Approved Terminology™). At least one patient in Bordeaux is thought to have received an anti-viral treatment from Gilead Sciences of Fremont (CA), but it’s not clear what role that might have played in his recovery (MH Approved Terminology™).
    Alea jacta est!
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