Scary virus outbreak in China

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  • BlueFox
    BlueFox Posts: 15,251
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    So far there are 71,000 cases with 1800 deaths. Most of this is taking place in China, which is using draconian quarantine enforcement in trying to combat this disease. One thing I haven’t seen yet is the length of time to be sick and recover. That is, how long is a person sick before they recover. I assume people do recover from this illness.
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  • BlueFox
    BlueFox Posts: 15,251
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    Good question.
    Lumin X1 file player, Westminster Labs interconnect cable
    Sony XA-5400ES SACD; Pass XP-22 pre; X600.5 amps
    Magico S5 MKII Mcast Rose speakers; SPOD spikes

    Shunyata Triton v3/Typhon QR on source, Denali 2000 (2) on amps
    Shunyata Sigma XLR analog ICs, Sigma speaker cables
    Shunyata Sigma HC (2), Sigma Analog, Sigma Digital, Z Anaconda (3) power cables

    Mapleshade Samson V.3 four shelf solid maple rack, Micropoint brass footers
    Three 20 amp circuits.
  • nooshinjohn
    nooshinjohn Posts: 25,177
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    BlueFox wrote: »
    So far there are 71,000 cases with 1800 deaths. Most of this is taking place in China, which is using draconian quarantine enforcement in trying to combat this disease. One thing I haven’t seen yet is the length of time to be sick and recover. That is, how long is a person sick before they recover. I assume people do recover from this illness.

    The numbers China is reporting are drastically understated. Actual numbers are much higher with some estimates being in the 270,000 infected and 7500 dead.
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    “When once a Republic is corrupted, there is no possibility of remedying any of the growing evils but by removing the corruption and restoring its lost principles; every other correction is either useless or a new evil.”— Thomas Jefferson
  • BlueFox
    BlueFox Posts: 15,251
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    Yes, it appears to be getting worse in China. At some point it is going to break loose, and the US, and world, will be like China. At that point the US and world economy will collapse, so I need to check with my investment firm tomorrow, and get out of stocks and move into something more stable.
    Lumin X1 file player, Westminster Labs interconnect cable
    Sony XA-5400ES SACD; Pass XP-22 pre; X600.5 amps
    Magico S5 MKII Mcast Rose speakers; SPOD spikes

    Shunyata Triton v3/Typhon QR on source, Denali 2000 (2) on amps
    Shunyata Sigma XLR analog ICs, Sigma speaker cables
    Shunyata Sigma HC (2), Sigma Analog, Sigma Digital, Z Anaconda (3) power cables

    Mapleshade Samson V.3 four shelf solid maple rack, Micropoint brass footers
    Three 20 amp circuits.
  • audioluvr
    audioluvr Posts: 5,467
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    BlueFox wrote: »
    Yes, it appears to be getting worse in China. At some point it is going to break loose, and the US, and world, will be like China. At that point the US and world economy will collapse, so I need to check with my investment firm tomorrow, and get out of stocks and move into something more stable.

    Like guns and ammo?
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  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 18,481
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    Good grief. Enough with the doomsday scenario already...

    AFAIK, only one person has died so far outside of China as a direct result of this virus. Y'all are starting to sound like the...

    b2y0caukbano.png

    This is just the flavor of the month. *rolls eyes*

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • motorhead43026
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    audioluvr wrote: »
    BlueFox wrote: »
    Yes, it appears to be getting worse in China. At some point it is going to break loose, and the US, and world, will be like China. At that point the US and world economy will collapse, so I need to check with my investment firm tomorrow, and get out of stocks and move into something more stable.

    Like guns and ammo?

    And gold.
    2 channel: Anthem 225 Integrated amp; Parasound Ztuner; TechnicsTT SL1350; Vincent PHO-8 phono pre; Marantz CD6005 spinner; Polk SDA2BTL's; LAT International speaker cables, ZU Mission IC's and power cables all into a PS Audio Dectet Power center.

    Other; M10 series II, M7C's, Hafler XL600 amp, RB-980BX, Parasound HCA-1500 amp , P5 preamp, all in storage. All vintage Polk have had crossover rebuilds and tweeter upgrades.

    The best way to predict the future is to invent it.

    It is imperative that we recognize that an opinion is not a fact.

    Imagine making politics your entire personality.
  • txcoastal1
    txcoastal1 Posts: 13,138
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    audioluvr wrote: »
    BlueFox wrote: »
    Yes, it appears to be getting worse in China. At some point it is going to break loose, and the US, and world, will be like China. At that point the US and world economy will collapse, so I need to check with my investment firm tomorrow, and get out of stocks and move into something more stable.

    Like guns and ammo?

    And gold.

    Coffee, tobacco, and whiskey too...

    Also hot sauce, anything is edible with hot sauce
    2-channel: Modwright KWI-200 Integrated, Dynaudio C1-II Signatures
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    erat interfectorem cesar et **** dictatorem dicere a
  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 18,481
    edited February 2020
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    N/M

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • sucks2beme
    sucks2beme Posts: 5,566
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    Why does anybody book a cruise? Seems so many people get stuck on a boat
    With flu outbreaks. Sorry, if I wanted to be crammed on a boat with thousands of people I'd join the Navy.
    "The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg." --Thomas Jefferson
  • motorstereo
    motorstereo Posts: 2,060
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    sucks2beme wrote: »
    Why does anybody book a cruise? Seems so many people get stuck on a boat
    With flu outbreaks. Sorry, if I wanted to be crammed on a boat with thousands of people I'd join the Navy.

    I don't get the fascination with cruises either. I've never been on one and really have no desire to go on one. But there are many young guys where I work who raid their 401K's to go on cruises so obviously we must be overlooking something :#
  • sucks2beme
    sucks2beme Posts: 5,566
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    ok, raiding 401k to cruise? That's doubling down on stupid.
    Imagine being one of the people currently on lockdown for the next 18 days
    and if positive, even longer. I don't think many employers are going to be
    very happy with that. I saw an interview with one released from Japan.
    They were tested, but didn't have results yet, then lied that they were cleared and
    flew back to the US. They came down with it in flight. This is the stuff that
    is going to bring it back to the US and start BIG problems. I'm hoping they
    broke a law.
    "The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg." --Thomas Jefferson
  • Willow
    Willow Posts: 10,894
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    sucks2beme wrote: »
    Why does anybody book a cruise? Seems so many people get stuck on a boat
    With flu outbreaks. Sorry, if I wanted to be crammed on a boat with thousands of people I'd join the Navy.

    Hot bunking and mostly men? I'd rather be on a cruise
  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 33,187
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    sucks2beme wrote: »
    ok, raiding 401k to cruise? That's doubling down on stupid.
    ...
    Signature line material right there, folks!

    Hey, @Hermitism, think you can rustle up a "Signature Line Material" badge thingy for us some time (you know, while you're restin'...)?

    B)

  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 33,187
    edited February 2020
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    Oh, speaking of the folks returned to the US via charter flight(s) -- did y'all read about/see the accommodations they had? Since they were trying to maintain on-plane isolation of the virus-positive passengers, apparently a quick retrofit of a couple of air freight 747s was performed. No windows, portapotties, an isolation pod and quickly-installed seats. De luxe.

    bw371ki40xtn.png
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8011381/Isolation-chambers-installed-planes-bringing-400-Americans-Diamond-Princess.html
  • Viking64
    Viking64 Posts: 6,733
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    sucks2beme wrote: »
    Why does anybody book a cruise? Seems so many people get stuck on a boat
    With flu outbreaks. Sorry, if I wanted to be crammed on a boat with thousands of people I'd join the Navy.

    :s

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmGuy0jievs
  • sucks2beme
    sucks2beme Posts: 5,566
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    la2vegas wrote: »
    sucks2beme wrote: »
    Why does anybody book a cruise? Seems so many people get stuck on a boat
    With flu outbreaks. Sorry, if I wanted to be crammed on a boat with thousands of people I'd join the Navy.

    Thank you in advance for your service...

    I was a Marine. Close enough. Short rides were all we had to deal with.
    "The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg." --Thomas Jefferson
  • BlueFox
    BlueFox Posts: 15,251
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    Just off the phone with financial advisor. Turns out we are on same page since they are already planning on a stock market hit in the US from this disease. The question is how big. Anyway, now we are in a wait and see mode.
    Lumin X1 file player, Westminster Labs interconnect cable
    Sony XA-5400ES SACD; Pass XP-22 pre; X600.5 amps
    Magico S5 MKII Mcast Rose speakers; SPOD spikes

    Shunyata Triton v3/Typhon QR on source, Denali 2000 (2) on amps
    Shunyata Sigma XLR analog ICs, Sigma speaker cables
    Shunyata Sigma HC (2), Sigma Analog, Sigma Digital, Z Anaconda (3) power cables

    Mapleshade Samson V.3 four shelf solid maple rack, Micropoint brass footers
    Three 20 amp circuits.
  • nooshinjohn
    nooshinjohn Posts: 25,177
    edited February 2020
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    never mind.... nothing to see here.
    The Gear... Carver "Statement" Mono-blocks, Mcintosh C2300 Arcam AVR20, Oppo UDP-203 4K Blu-ray player, Sony XBR70x850B 4k, Polk Audio Legend L800 with height modules, L400 Center Channel Polk audio AB800 "in-wall" surrounds. Marantz MM7025 stereo amp. Simaudio Moon 680d DSD

    “When once a Republic is corrupted, there is no possibility of remedying any of the growing evils but by removing the corruption and restoring its lost principles; every other correction is either useless or a new evil.”— Thomas Jefferson
  • tonyb
    tonyb Posts: 32,911
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    Stock market takes a hit if someone tweets the wrong thing. These things come and go, markets go down and up but this is not going to be the end of the world type of virus. Markets have corrections , that's like investing 101 isn't it.
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  • Willow
    Willow Posts: 10,894
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    markets go low, time to buy!
  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 33,187
    edited February 2020
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    The stock market(s) hate uncertainty. They don't mind bad news (or good news). Almost always, the response of the markets to an anticipated event is baked in by the time that event actually occurs.

    We're - arguably - past peak uncertainty with this particular virus outbreak. So far, the markets have been surprisingly disinterested.
    Not uninterested, but not over-interested, either.

    at 3pm EST Apple's sales forecast adjustment was bad for them; has a little effect on the market so far (down 0.5% today, an hour before the close)

    z3kglnv6qkmi.png

    Like everything else, there're smart investments... and not so smart investments.

  • motorhead43026
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    The markets are headed down anyway. The FED announced they are ending repo purchases for awhile, so liquidity will dry up as a result. Never understood with such a good economy why this was a thing anyway, but it has helped drive/prop the market up beyond what it should be. The FED can always fire the Repo market back up at will.

    Current stock market PE ratios to SP 500 earnings is 25.37% which is a bit rich.

    GDP for 2019 came it at 2.1% , 2020 is projected (before China's problems) to be 1.9%. if there are supply chain interruptions GDP could take a hit, hard to project now and before what's in the pipeline is used up this China thing could be over, only time will tell.

    I am sure the calls for interest rate cuts will get louder if things start going to far south. We have an election coming up in case you've been asleep.


    2 channel: Anthem 225 Integrated amp; Parasound Ztuner; TechnicsTT SL1350; Vincent PHO-8 phono pre; Marantz CD6005 spinner; Polk SDA2BTL's; LAT International speaker cables, ZU Mission IC's and power cables all into a PS Audio Dectet Power center.

    Other; M10 series II, M7C's, Hafler XL600 amp, RB-980BX, Parasound HCA-1500 amp , P5 preamp, all in storage. All vintage Polk have had crossover rebuilds and tweeter upgrades.

    The best way to predict the future is to invent it.

    It is imperative that we recognize that an opinion is not a fact.

    Imagine making politics your entire personality.
  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 33,187
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    ^^^ Yup.

    Longest US economic expansion ever (as of July 2019)... so, yeah, gettin' to be time for a correction/recession.
    https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/07/02/americas-economic-expansion-is-now-the-longest-on-record

    Just remember the mantra:
    The stock market is not the economy, and the economy is not the stock market.


  • BlueFox
    BlueFox Posts: 15,251
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    BlueFox wrote: »
    Just off the phone with financial advisor. Turns out we are on same page since they are already planning on a stock market hit in the US from this disease. The question is how big. Anyway, now we are in a wait and see mode.

    Looks like it is starting. Got out just in time. It might briefly recover, but once this virus breaks loose and hits this country then it will get worse for the stock market. Of course, that is minor compared to the effect on society this virus will have.

    This is for Thursday, and today (Friday) it is continuing.

    “U.S. stocks are falling on Thursday as a jittery Wall Street continues to eye the expansion of the coronavirus around the world.

    Dow bulls are nervously watching what could be a new base camp for the disease in Daegu, South Korea.

    The city of 2.5 million residents faces a possible quarantine.
    The Dow Jones dropped sharply on Thursday, and the sudden 400 point dip left Wall Street scratching its head.”

    https://www.ccn.com/this-is-why-the-dow-jones-unexpectedly-dove-on-thursday/
    Lumin X1 file player, Westminster Labs interconnect cable
    Sony XA-5400ES SACD; Pass XP-22 pre; X600.5 amps
    Magico S5 MKII Mcast Rose speakers; SPOD spikes

    Shunyata Triton v3/Typhon QR on source, Denali 2000 (2) on amps
    Shunyata Sigma XLR analog ICs, Sigma speaker cables
    Shunyata Sigma HC (2), Sigma Analog, Sigma Digital, Z Anaconda (3) power cables

    Mapleshade Samson V.3 four shelf solid maple rack, Micropoint brass footers
    Three 20 amp circuits.
  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 33,187
    edited February 2020
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    A long (long) disruption in the supply chain will have some effect on the market and maybe (??) even the global economy. I reckon that whether "the virus" is in the US or not (in an epidemic way) is, financially, secondary, because we don't have much to do with the global supply chain any more (sadly).
  • Viking64
    Viking64 Posts: 6,733
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    If you get a Chinese virus and become cured, you can still get it again 2 hours later.
  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,943
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    1. A 10% market drop is considered a correction.
    2. A 20% drop is considered a bear market.
    We are nowhere near those levels. In fact, there were a couple of pullbacks in 2019 that were far worse than this one thus far, and we witnessed something significantly more painful at the end of 2018 (the worst pullback since the Great Recession in 08/09).

    Look at the chart below, representing the S&P 500 (far more useful than the DJI 30 in my opinion, which is ridiculously narrow).
    • The correction at the end of 2018 (1) touched on bear market territory... That was painful! 🤕 It also provided multiple opportunities for the brave and courageous.
    • The two major pullbacks early in 2019 (2) were also unpleasant, but anyone who couldn’t handle the pain from those simply should not be investing, because such pullbacks are inevitable, and in many cases, they can be a gift for entering the market.
    • This week’s pullback (3) is peanuts in comparison. 🥜

    o2yj99wtad43.jpeg
    Alea jacta est!
  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,943
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    Also of interest...

    Some British tourists made the news for bringing the Covid-19 virus to a ski resort in France, where six were infected (all but one staying in the same rented chalet). In total, twelve cases have been declared in France. Of those, an 80 year old Chinese tourist has died (his daughter, traveling with him, survived).

    Other than the death of the tourist, out of the twelve, there is only ONE patient still in hospital. Everyone else has been released.
    Alea jacta est!
This discussion has been closed.