Scary virus outbreak in China

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  • F1nut
    F1nut Posts: 46,296
    She's an idiot for waiting 12 days to get medical attention.
    Political Correctness'.........defined

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  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,452
    It’s possible that she has no healthcare coverage, or coverage with a high co-pay, possibly a plan with 100% copay until a minimum out-of-pocket has been met.
    Alea jacta est!
  • BlueFox
    BlueFox Posts: 14,795
    daddyjt wrote: »
    I’m telling you, this virus is going to run it’s course - it’s got too much of a head start.

    That is the current issue. Nobody knows how long it will continue. Will it subside with warm weather? Will it mutate into a more fatal virus? Nobody knows.
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  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,452
    The real issue is that everyone with half a brain knows that the numbers reported in the U.S. are far below reality. That’s part of the reason the market is so turbulent.
    Alea jacta est!
  • Gardenstater
    Gardenstater Posts: 2,028
    edited March 2020
    daddyjt wrote: »
    aprazer402 wrote: »
    ...But to protect the community, who investigates these infected persons contacts for the past two weeks? The medical professionals shouldn't have to, they have patients to treat.

    There simply isn’t the depth within the system to investigate even this one case. Think about it - she’s been sick for twelve (12) days. Within that 12 days, let’s say she’s had contact with 60 people (5 per day, x 12 days). That’s probably WAY low, but just for example, the 5 she contacted on her first day each contact 5 (25) others, then those 25 each contact 5 (125), and so on... and that’s just from her day one. You’re talking thousands of people, and that’s just from HER.

    I’m telling you, this virus is going to run it’s course - it’s got too much of a head start.

    According to the CDC website, healthcare providers are supposed to report PUI (Persons Under Investigation) to their local and State Health Departments, so I guess the question is what are they doing and are they understaffed/overwhelmed?

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-criteria.html

    https://www.cste.org/page/EpiOnCall

    Here's an article about how it was handled back in late Jan in WA:

    https://www.wsna.org/news/2020/update-on-statewide-response-to-2019-novel-coronavirus-contact-investigation-continues

    NJ Dept. of Health link for healthcare professionals (my state):

    https://www.nj.gov/health/cd/topics/covid2019_professionals.shtml
    https://www.nj.gov/health/cd/reporting/
    Post edited by Gardenstater on
    George / NJ

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  • kevhed72
    kevhed72 Posts: 4,507
    Kex wrote: »
    It’s possible that she has no healthcare coverage, or coverage with a high co-pay, possibly a plan with 100% copay until a minimum out-of-pocket has been met.
    I know from first hand experience many people with serious healthcare issues avoid the doctor or ER because of the high costs involved, but thats a whole other issue nobody is willing to tackle....except maybe for Amazon? Weird world we live in....

  • tonyb
    tonyb Posts: 32,359
    Thanks Garden and Halen for posting more details on the kits. Still, one would think that the same process used in a lab for detecting the coronavirus, is also used to confirm other contagious viruses.

    and if so, wouldn't these kits be more universal in their application across the board ? If so....one has to ask, why the heck we don't have a stockpile of them unless they can't be stored for periods of time. This isn't going to be the last virus to come around, I think we all know that.

    My brother has a trip to Sicily in May, has to re-think that. If any of you are planning a trip, airlines are discounting flights big time. Not you old folks, you stay home under the covers with a flashlight. :)
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  • Gardenstater
    Gardenstater Posts: 2,028
    According to the CDC website, healthcare providers are supposed to report PUI (Persons Under Investigation) to their local and State Health Departments, so I guess the question is what are they doing and are they understaffed/overwhelmed?

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-criteria.html

    https://www.cste.org/page/EpiOnCall

    Here's an article about how it was handled back in late Jan in WA:

    https://www.wsna.org/news/2020/update-on-statewide-response-to-2019-novel-coronavirus-contact-investigation-continues

    NJ Dept. of Health link for healthcare professionals (my state):

    https://www.nj.gov/health/cd/topics/covid2019_professionals.shtml
    George / NJ

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  • Gardenstater
    Gardenstater Posts: 2,028
    Be careful with editing your posts. It seems like there is a risk that Vanilla will make your whole post go POOF ! Just happened to me again.
    George / NJ

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  • tonyb
    tonyb Posts: 32,359
    It's an impossible task, for a country our size and the travel in and out that happens daily, to completely protect everyone against infectious diseases/viruses. It's also impossible to test everyone, especially since this type of virus can test negative one day, and the same person can have it again after being declared cured.

    We going to shut tight the borders, nobody in or out, no trade of goods. Cancel all overseas flights, all shipping goods at ports, use of paper money and coins. You'll never stop the spread, but you can slow it down. Pretty much what everyone is doing right now.

    Read a few stories about some who were suppose to self quarantine and instead went to parties. How irresponsible can you be. Makes ya want to punch these people....with a glove on of course.
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  • Gardenstater
    Gardenstater Posts: 2,028
    tonyb wrote: »
    Thanks Garden and Halen for posting more details on the kits. Still, one would think that the same process used in a lab for detecting the coronavirus, is also used to confirm other contagious viruses.

    and if so, wouldn't these kits be more universal in their application across the board ? If so....one has to ask, why the heck we don't have a stockpile of them unless they can't be stored for periods of time. This isn't going to be the last virus to come around, I think we all know that.

    My brother has a trip to Sicily in May, has to re-think that. If any of you are planning a trip, airlines are discounting flights big time. Not you old folks, you stay home under the covers with a flashlight. :)

    I'm pretty sure the nature of the PCR testing where you are identifying a particular DNA strand makes the test kits for a particular virus totally the opposite of universal. joeyv or others with more knowledge can correct me if I'm wrong but I think those Primer/Probe Reagents that are in Box#1 are developed using the particular virus to be detected and are specific to that virus.
    George / NJ

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    Martin Logan Dynamo sub w/6ft 14awg Power Cord
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    Custom Vibration Isolation Speaker Stands and Sub Platform
  • tonyb
    tonyb Posts: 32,359
    tonyb wrote: »
    Thanks Garden and Halen for posting more details on the kits. Still, one would think that the same process used in a lab for detecting the coronavirus, is also used to confirm other contagious viruses.

    and if so, wouldn't these kits be more universal in their application across the board ? If so....one has to ask, why the heck we don't have a stockpile of them unless they can't be stored for periods of time. This isn't going to be the last virus to come around, I think we all know that.

    My brother has a trip to Sicily in May, has to re-think that. If any of you are planning a trip, airlines are discounting flights big time. Not you old folks, you stay home under the covers with a flashlight. :)

    I'm pretty sure the nature of the PCR testing where you are identifying a particular DNA strand makes the test kits for a particular virus totally the opposite of universal. joeyv or others with more knowledge can correct me if I'm wrong but I think those Primer/Probe Reagents that are in Box#1 are developed using the particular virus to be detected and are specific to that virus.

    Could be, I dunno. If they are specific to a virus, then you can't really make a kit until a particular virus becomes a problem. Then it becomes a manufacturing issue and how quick you can churn them out, right ? Which might explain some lag in the availability of kits here, aside from the dumb decisions of the CDC to use their own.
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  • verb
    verb Posts: 9,925
    I went to our state's Heath & Human Services website for the first time, ever. Michigan is clear, so far:
    d72e44r11ifa.png

    To date, there are no confirmed COVID-19 cases in Michigan. As of March 4, eight people have been tested for COVOD-19 in the state; five by CDC and three by MDHHS.
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  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 14,673
    Serious question here....how long does this virus live in air? Does anyone know or has it been reported yet?

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~

    ~ I have found excellence ~

    ~ The best way to enjoy digital music reproduction is to never listen to good analogue reproduction ~

  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 28,258
    The way PCR (polymerase chain reaction) works is that each test is specific for a unique DNA (or, in the case of these viruses, DNA 'reverse transcribed' from RNA, RT-PCR) sequence for that pathogen. This requires two primers that are complementary to the DNA sequences that are used as the diagnostic for the pathogen being tested for. The size (length) and precise DNA sequence of the primers used and the conditions for denaturing and re-annealing the DNA strands for each organism or virus sequence to be tested for has to be carefully selected and tuned to minimize false negatives (which are 'worst case' for a diagnostic). A false positive is preferable to a false negative in diagnostic tests like this -- because a false positive can always be retested. A false negative walks out the door and infects his/her friends and acquaintances! :(

    What's cool about PCR is it uses the biochemical DNA replication machinery to amplify the signal, so the tests are almost unbelievably sensitive. They're also automated and reasonably fast and as precise as biology allows them to be. The test can also
    quantitative (qPCR). I'll spare y'all the details unless you really want to know.

  • deronb1
    deronb1 Posts: 5,039
    Thanks Doc! Now my head hurts!
  • Emlyn
    Emlyn Posts: 3,245
    treitz3 wrote: »
    Serious question here....how long does this virus live in air? Does anyone know or has it been reported yet?

    Tom

    It's not entirely clear yet because it is still being studied, but there have been studies of other coronaviruses that give clues. From what I have read from the CDC, the main transmission source is through airborne droplets between people in close contact. Like on cruise ships! Once no longer airborne in droplets, the virus can remain live on hard surfaces for minutes or days depending on the temperature and humidity environment. Sunlight kills it. If people wash their hands often and avoid touching their faces while out and about that surface to person transmission risk goes way way down. It also helps to avoid touching things with bare hands that many other people touch throughout the day such as door handles and elevator buttons. These rules go for anything though, not just a coronavirus.


  • verb
    verb Posts: 9,925
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  • motorhead43026
    motorhead43026 Posts: 3,824
    edited March 2020
    GDP for the year 2020 was forecast to be in the 2% range until this virus came about. It is now forecasted to be in the 1.3% range for 2020, this mostly due to a supply chain interruptions.

    People are going to quit spending as things deteriorate. Of course the FED will slash rates and fire up the QE printing presses. It won't work this time, cash will be king again. Throw in a little physical gold for good measure.


    Oh, and wash your hands and don't touch your face.




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  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 14,673
    treitz3 wrote: »
    Serious question here....how long does this virus live in air? Does anyone know or has it been reported yet?
    Emlyn wrote: »
    It's not entirely clear yet because it is still being studied, but there have been studies of other coronaviruses that give clues. From what I have read from the CDC, the main transmission source is through airborne droplets between people in close contact. Like on cruise ships! Once no longer airborne in droplets, the virus can remain live on hard surfaces for minutes or days depending on the temperature and humidity environment. Sunlight kills it. If people wash their hands often and avoid touching their faces while out and about that surface to person transmission risk goes way way down. It also helps to avoid touching things with bare hands that many other people touch throughout the day such as door handles and elevator buttons. These rules go for anything though, not just a coronavirus.

    Minutes or days sounds good. I was thinking about bubble wrap being manufactured and it possibly spreading that way. If it's only a couple of days, then no worries. Thanks,

    Tom




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  • verb
    verb Posts: 9,925
    I have to chuckle a bit, as Sam's Club was completely out of toilet paper! Well, that sparked a bit of panic with the Mrs and we had to make another stop. I'm thinking, my goodness, we already have a bunch at home (At least one of those big packs from Sam's), but, I did not argue, just went with it! :smile:
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  • daddyjt
    daddyjt Posts: 1,470
    verb wrote: »
    ....I did not argue, just went with it! :smile:

    You sir, are wise beyond your years.
    Forget “Build Back Better” - Just put it back the way you found it… ~ Anonymous


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  • BlueFox
    BlueFox Posts: 14,795
    ‘On Friday, the virus hit a new milestone, infecting more than 100,000 people worldwide, far more than those sickened by SARS, MERS or Ebola in recent years.’

    https://time.com/5798797/un-who-coronavirus-outbreak-classification/
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  • deronb1
    deronb1 Posts: 5,039
    BlueFox wrote: »
    ‘On Friday, the virus hit a new milestone, infecting more than 100,000 people worldwide, far more than those sickened by SARS, MERS or Ebola in recent years.’

    https://time.com/5798797/un-who-coronavirus-outbreak-classification/

    Que REM....
  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,452
    edited March 2020
    Alea jacta est!
  • F1nut
    F1nut Posts: 46,296
    Italy's quarantine is hardly what the headline makes it out to be.
    What are the measures?
    Night clubs, gyms, swimming pools, museums and ski resorts will be closed.

    Restaurants and cafes can open but customers must sit at least a metre apart.

    People will be told to stay home as much as possible
    Political Correctness'.........defined

    "A doctrine fostered by a delusional, illogical minority and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a t-u-r-d by the clean end."


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  • Willow
    Willow Posts: 10,444
    The virus is said to live up to 2 weeks on phones. Only a couple hours on steel/metal.
    But I'm not concerned.
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  • F1nut
    F1nut Posts: 46,296
    edited March 2020
    Political Correctness'.........defined

    "A doctrine fostered by a delusional, illogical minority and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a t-u-r-d by the clean end."


    President of Club Polk

  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 14,673
    Violet oil will soon skyrocket to $1,000.00 per ounce. Oh, the humanity!

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~

    ~ I have found excellence ~

    ~ The best way to enjoy digital music reproduction is to never listen to good analogue reproduction ~

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