Scary virus outbreak in China

kevhed72

nooshinjohn wrote: »

"The best estimates now of the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 is somewhere between 0.1 percent and 1 percent," said Brett Giroir, an assistant secretary at the Department of Health and Human Services, at a press conference yesterday. The good news is that as more testing data comes in, the lower the mortality rate for COVID-19 falls."


Yep... truly scary stuff. The common flu is deadlier that these numbers.

The mortality rate from a non US based source put the mortality rate closer to 3 percent, which makes one wonder why our government may possibly lowball this important number (?)

Gardenstater

If you look at the actual Chinese situation, the deathrate has come way down. It was initially bad because they were overwhelmed and had to turn people away from healthcare and testing and didn't know as much about how best to treat it. Also, the initial cases were the older people and people with pre-existing conditions, so that skewed the data. I posted a link to an article about this. So our estimates of the deathrate are highly inflated at this point in time because they are based upon the Chinese data which is being misinterpreted.

I don't see anyone saying this is trivial though........

xschop

1) It all boils down to whom is "misinterpreting" data.
2) As an aside, an Elisa-based test would be faster than an RT-pcr based test, if one exists.
3) And on a lighter note, all the TP shortage stems from someone posting on the net that "Things are about to get ****"

BlueBirdMusic

All Hospital Beds In The US Will Be Filled With Patients 'By About May 8th' Due To Coronavirus: Analysis

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/all-hospital-beds-us-will-be-filled-coronavirus-patients-about-may-8th-according-analysis

tonyb

Hey, if your gonna be put under lock down, what better place than Italy. You can lock me down on a coastal town anytime.....for any reason. I may book a flight just for that reason.

Gardenstater

Well we have 436 confirmed cases now in US, whereas I think we had 102 late Mon night last week, but the testing is rolling out in a big way now so that 102 figure was falsely deflated. Lets say we keep doing 4x every week..........on second thought lets not !!!

Gardenstater

xschop wrote: »

1) It all boils down to whom is "misinterpreting" data.
2) As an aside, an Elisa-based test would be faster than an RT-pcr based test, if one exists.
3) And on a lighter note, all the TP shortage stems from someone posting on the net that "Things are about to get ****"

"There are 3 kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics" - phrase popularized by Mark Twain


Here's the article I referenced earlier:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/03/809904660/why-the-death-rate-from-coronavirus-is-plunging-in-china

Here's one excerpt:

Still, it's worth noting that even after China got the death rate down to 0.7%, or even 0.4%, that's still about four to seven times greater than the death rate for seasonal flu. (The rate for the flu is about 0.1% — or 1 in 1,000 patients.)

verb

treitz3 wrote: »

Roy, it ain't like that. While the death rate is low (unless you are old and with pre-existing illness)? It's doom and gloom presented by many folks.

You and I have a .9 percent of being offed by this thing. Whoopdie-do! We have a higher percentage of dying if we cross certain roads. Some folks love to live in fear. In fact, I would swear they thrive on it.

I don't get it but I will say that the media is WAAAAAYYY over-hyping this thing. To the point of being ridiculous. Good to see you posting, my friend!

Tom

If it bleeds, it reads. It does seem IMO that the media is way over hyping this issue. For many reasons (not to go over them here), but for me, I'm not that worried.

Precautions? Sure I will. Probably things I should have done every year during the flu season, but never did.

treitz3

My wife told me yesterday that she isn't too worried and she can't quite figure out why because when she watches the news, all hell is breaking loose and events all over the world are getting cancelled. She just ain't skeert! Either am I.

Now is it on our minds? Obviously but we are not obsessing over it.

Tom

deronb1

nooshinjohn wrote: »

Yep... he just ate something with too much grease.

If "Battlefield Earth" didn't kill him, nothing will.

mrbigbluelight

As Doris Day would say, "Que sera, sera".

Joey_V

Got an email from work, if I get exposed to corona at work, I'll be quarantined for 2 weeks.

And they said don't even try to apply for workmen's comp.

Kinda insulting.

BlueFox

I wonder how much longer before it really takes off in the US. Also, it will be interesting how the stock market behaves next week. Stay tuned.

motorhead43026

Joey_V wrote: »

Got an email from work, if I get exposed to corona at work, I'll be quarantined for 2 weeks.

And they said don't even try to apply for workmen's comp.

Kinda insulting.

This is one of the very real downsides of this situation. What if many of our medical caregivers are quarantined. They are stretched pretty thin as is.

Gardenstater

Kex wrote: »

Italy has now leapfrogged South Korea as the world’s second highest concentration of cases detected. Almost 7.5K, with 366 deaths. Their death toll is therefore approximately 5%.

France and Germany have both exceeded 1K cases each, with 19 deaths in France, and none in Germany (so much lower percentages than Italy, but still almost 2% in France).

The IATA is warning that airlines might lose over $110 billion in 2020 from lost revenue. Norwegian Air Shuttle, in particular, has lost 70% of its value. The airline relied heavily on the 787 and the 737 MAX for their expansion plans. The 787 experienced extended groundings last year because of engine faults, so Norwegian cut routes, and replaced other aircraft with “wet” leased aircraft that were more Inefficient to operate.

Italy may have a not so good healthcare system. Even South Korea only has a 0.7% death rate so far and they have pretty much the same number of cases.

F1nut

Proves the WHO doesn't know squat.

BlueFox

Kex wrote: »

Joey_V wrote: »

Got an email from work, if I get exposed to corona at work, I'll be quarantined for 2 weeks.

We have been told not only to cancel all meetings and business trips, but also, that if any personal travel is expected, that we must self quarantine for two weeks upon our return.

Kex, is that travel outside the US, or travel anywhere?

Gardenstater

Kex wrote: »

Gardenstater wrote: »

Italy may have a not so good healthcare system. Even South Korea only has a 0.7% death rate so far and they have pretty much the same number of cases.

That’s a rather arbitrary statement, but proves your point earlier about lies and statistics (statistics don’t lie, but one can interpret them differently according to the point that one wishes to make).

In fact, Italians enjoy universal healthcare, and their healthcare system is regarded by the World Health Organization as the second best in the world after France. Italy has the world's sixth highest life expectancy

I guess you missed the word *may*. Further info, that we don't have would probably shed a lot of light on the situation, like perhaps they had a disproportionate number of patients that fell in the over 80 or pre-existing conditions crowds.

Gardenstater

I just want to make clear that I too am very much concerned for anyone who becomes a victim of this virus and my heart goes out to them and their families. Everyone is concerned with survival, both literally and financially.

nooshinjohn

So far it is likely more people have died while driving to the store to hoard toilet paper, rubbing alcohol and hand sanitizer than have died because of the virus. The media in this country has blood on their hands.

txcoastal1

Many colleges and Universities are relying on outside class activities

The issue will become a real PITA when it enters our public school systems with 3 months left in the school year

Dennis Gardner

Northern Italy claims that ICUs are overburdened with 10% of all hospitalizations requiring breathing machines. They simply don't have that type of space or equipment to handle this type of infection rate.

BlueFox

nooshinjohn wrote: »

So far it is likely more people have died while driving to the store to hoard toilet paper, rubbing alcohol and hand sanitizer than have died because of the virus. The media in this country has blood on their hands.

Virus cases at 520 in 30 states in the US at 4:30 PM on Sunday. It seems to be accelerating each day. Should be in all 50 states by end of day tomorrow. At some point it will really take off.

treitz3

Tom

Gardenstater

Sorry I couldn't help it.......S&P 500 Futures down 4.8%. Here comes the panic. Gold only up 1.7%

indyhawg

BlueFox

Gardenstater wrote: »

Sorry I couldn't help it.......S&P 500 Futures down 4.8%. Here comes the panic. Gold only up 1.7%

I have never understood the ‘Futures’ market. If the stock market is closed then what is being bought and sold? Or is this another market that runs 7/24 a week?

pitdogg2

Joey_V wrote: »

Got an email from work, if I get exposed to corona at work, I'll be quarantined for 2 weeks.

And they said don't even try to apply for workmen's comp.

Kinda insulting.

Sounds like disability to me.

daddyjt

BlueFox wrote: »

nooshinjohn wrote: »

So far it is likely more people have died while driving to the store to hoard toilet paper, rubbing alcohol and hand sanitizer than have died because of the virus. The media in this country has blood on their hands.

Virus cases at 520 in 30 states in the US at 4:30 PM on Sunday. It seems to be accelerating each day. Should be in all 50 states by end of day tomorrow. At some point it will really take off.

Pretty safe to say it was in all 50 states several days ago. Exponential progression should show (reported) cases in the millions within 7-10 days, if they test that many people.

Gardenstater

It certainly did not progress that rapidly in China, however they are in the unique position of being able to deny people's freedoms, such as freedom of movement and travel.