Japan shook with 8.8 Quake and Hit By Tsunami

JustinHEMI

You're welcome!

I am happy to offer an operator's take on what is going on, without the spin.

Thoughts and prayers for all involved, and to my fellow Japanese operators.

greyford1979

fatchowmein wrote: »

Thanks, Justin, for pulling back the curtains and giving us a peak sort to speak. Learned a lot today.

Prayers to those affected. Those photos and videos are heartbreaking.

Any news on how the supply of drinking water was affected?

I saw one picture with an old man with his face in his hands crying and it brought me to tears:frown: My fiance's friend just got back from visiting her sister over there a week ago, Saturday...Her sister is fine but shook up as one could imagine:frown: Very heartbreaking indeed.

nooshinjohn

I just heard from a friend at the Subaru plant that her family is all safe. Her friend at work however has not heard from anyone in her family. Not a word from her brothers, sisters, parents and not a word from her husband's family either... twenty-seven people in all, just GONE. This is a tragedy of epic proportion. My deepest sympathy and prayers go out to the great nation of Japan, her people and the families of those lost.

[Deleted User]

JustinHEMI wrote: »

This is what myself and my collegues can't figure out... why are they blowing up these secondary containments? Based on our procedures, there is no reason for this.

But, we aren't there, so the debate continues.

Justin

Justin - As the other poster said, Kudos for keeping us educated and informed. The situation in Japan is very tragic, I hope for the very best possible outcome for every one living there and affected by this.

Janne

JustinHEMI wrote: »

This is what myself and my collegues can't figure out... why are they blowing up these secondary containments? Based on our procedures, there is no reason for this.

But, we aren't there, so the debate continues.

Justin

It is blowing up because the situation is out of control. To me it did not really look like controlled explosions. TEPCO has lied about safety issues before. If the US carrier can detect radiation far out in the sea the situation around the plant is probably a lot worse than they pretend it is.

JustinHEMI

Janne wrote: »

It is blowing up because the situation is out of control. To me it did not really look like controlled explosions. TEPCO has lied about safety issues before. If the US carrier can detect radiation far out in the sea the situation around the plant is probably a lot worse than they pretend it is.

Yeah, I been trying to not monday morning quarterback them since I am not there, but the fact of the matter is that the technical updates that are being put out by TEPCO are not jiving with what I know about how to combat these casualties.

I predicted a full 8 hours before it happened, the problems with unit 2, based on what I knew.

Now, I am starting to be more willing to say that it doesn't quite seem that they know what they are doing. This is evidenced by the fact that we are sending people from the NRC to give them technical advice. If you ask me, they should gather up some operators to send over as well... I'd volunteer.

Anyway, Unit 2 isn't looking good, but I don't have all the details to make an educated statement about just how bad off they are, yet.

Justin

JustinHEMI

http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/news_images/pdf/ENGNEWS01_1300189582P.pdf

cheddar

Janne wrote: »

It is blowing up because the situation is out of control. To me it did not really look like controlled explosions. TEPCO has lied about safety issues before. If the US carrier can detect radiation far out in the sea the situation around the plant is probably a lot worse than they pretend it is.

They are not intentionally pushing buttons to cause the explosions. They are doing things that they know have a high risk of explosion, like venting the reactors, because the alternative of a core meltdown would be even worse than the atmospheric release of radiation caused by the venting and explosion. And with the radiation in the atmosphere, it all depends on where the wind is blowing. In this case carrying it right over the naval units. They are already saying publicly that radiation levels around the plant are at the level dangerous to human health even beyond the radius of the initial evacuation. And people are being advised not to go outside. I would imagine this is an impossible order to obey or even receive for many of the tsunami survivors in isolated coastal communities. The Fukushima region of Japan is not very populated or well serviced by things like train lines (think lots of mountain agricultural villages), especially on the coast compared to what we normally think of as Tokyo and the like (although the center of the prefecture has a bullet train line, carrying people to Sendai in the neighboring prefecture and to cities further north). Probably a big reason they decided to put the reactors there in the first place.

Janne

The problem with the whole story is that it has gone from everything is under control to buildings popping every second day. Don't worry there is no leakage. Ops! The Americans detected radiation out at sea. Ops! now the levels are higher in Tokyo. What will the next Ops be?

cheddar

JustinHEMI wrote: »

Now, I am starting to be more willing to say that it doesn't quite seem that they know what they are doing. This is evidenced by the fact that we are sending people from the NRC to give them technical advice. If you ask me, they should gather up some operators to send over as well... I'd volunteer.

Anyway, Unit 2 isn't looking good, but I don't have all the details to make an educated statement about just how bad off they are, yet.

Justin

I think they are way off the procedural check list by now. It would appear that a combination of equipment failure and possibly human error like you suggest has created a perfect storm spiraling out of control. IIRC, that's what happened at TMI as well. Things that operators didn't expect happened, were misinterpreted, and events moved faster than operators could adapt and they lost control. That may be why the US has better procedures in place now as you suggest.

I would imagine the same thing is happening here, just on a vastly magnified scale. Now even a reactor that was shut down for maintenance before the quake is reported releasing large amounts of radiation from its fuel rod storage pool after a fire. It would seem that either the quake and/or tsunami that followed took out enough systems so that all the reactors are having problems to one extent or another. Regardless of being operational or not before the quake. I would think it's a situation that no operator could completely train for, even if some of our procedures might have helped them lessen some of the problems they are having.

cheddar

Janne wrote: »

The problem with the whole story is that it has gone from everything is under control to buildings popping every second day. Don't worry there is no leakage. Ops! The Americans detected radiation out at sea. Ops! now the levels are higher in Tokyo. What will the next Ops be?

I doubt even the operators on the ground fully understand all the faults in their equipment that the quake/tsunami caused as I suggested above. The first two explosions were predictable based on the emergency procedures they were doing at the time. And it was also known that the plume was blowing out to sea and was reported as such. I'm not saying they aren't intentionally trying to prevent widespread panic by not releasing the most alarming information. But some of the things you're criticizing were reported beforehand.

NotaSuv

Amazing how fast the water rises in this footage......and this is just one little area among many hard hit.....


<iframe title="YouTube video player" width="640" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/GpuLlIrUYsI&quot; frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

bobman1235

Janne wrote: »

The problem with the whole story is that it has gone from everything is under control to buildings popping every second day. Don't worry there is no leakage. Ops! The Americans detected radiation out at sea. Ops! now the levels are higher in Tokyo. What will the next Ops be?

Black Ops? PsyOps?

Seriously, what exactly would you like them to say? "Everyone panic, ****'s going DOWN!" They're doing what they can, evacuating areas that are in danger....

Erik Tracy

Sobering pictures of the power of a tsunami:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/13/world/asia/satellite-photos-japan-before-and-after-tsunami.html

In the middle of each picture is a vertical line/slider - use your mouse to drag the slider left and right to see the before/after effects of the tsunami.

:eek::frown:

megasat16

With this rising radiation threat, I think the Japanese people and the Government are coping it extremely well under the intense pressure and shortage of everything.

I also believe the Government might have to put the threat of Nuclear under the lid for some extent. As it is developing issues and require constant battling of heat and pressure, the Government wouldn't naturally want to scare anyone left alive there. After all, they have this daunting task of search and rescue which is even more bigger threat than the radiation threat. If the announce any probably news that it'll get worse, this will be a hellish situation for distribution of food and water, and search and rescue mission as well as pulling bodies for cremations.

If I am to express my own opinions, I think the Nuke Operators there are doing extremely well given that fact that they don't know what is going on and don't have a clear picture of the damages occurred, and their contingency plans has failed. They also working in the harsh environment.

Even if they have never fully thought of the magnitude of the disaster they are facing, I am sure they would have hashed out the Tsunami and Quake drill many times before since they are Japanese.

Having said that, the chances are that the Japanese operators may not have as many training and emergency strategy or responses like our US operators.

So, if they would allow our operators to help, there may be a better chance of things (radiation) getting under the hood.

On the other hand, it might not be the case at all. What they are facing may be the unprecedented magnitude of multiple crisis we could never imaging before and there is no one can prepare for such a reality.

In order for an operator to fix and get things back under control, the disaster need to fall into place where the backup plans are thought out and put into place. But when the backup and well thought out plans fails, the Chaos theory ensures and the ability to think logically based on what is going on inside the reactor and accessing the damage is half the battle.

Well, I will keep sending good vibes their way.

My neighbor and I briefly spoke about this tragedy last Sunday and he asked me would we have radiation cloud flew over our sky and I said NO, it can't be. We are too far away and things are not going to be bad as in Chernobyl.

Now, I am going to talk strictly hypothetical and paranoia case and total speculation here - I am hoping that the case of radioactive cloud blowing toward us will never happen, but if it does happen, I hope the U.S Government will send a rainman on a plane to disperse the radioactive cloud to rain in the Pacific before it reaches us.

NotaSuv

Erik Tracy wrote: »

Sobering pictures of the power of a tsunami:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/03/13/world/asia/satellite-photos-japan-before-and-after-tsunami.html

In the middle of each picture is a vertical line/slider - use your mouse to drag the slider left and right to see the before/after effects of the tsunami.

:eek::frown:

saw those this morning on MSN...... amazing contrasts......

dkg999

I thought I saw a news blurb that they had raised the Japan quake from the initially reported 8.8 to a solid 9.0?

The nuke situation, IMHO, is the perfect storm of the best planned for disaster scenarios being combined with unforseeable (at the time in the '70's when GE built the reactors) events. I keep reading how this tsunami occured so fast after the quake and that the water speeds were so high and that this type of scenario was never considered in the disaster plans. According to a CNN radio broadcast if the quake had occured 3 weeks from now those reactors would have been shut down on a planned decommissioning.

megasat16

A few new developments in the nuke reactors

1. Radiation levels are decreasing so it appears no more leakage around the reactors and it's a very welcoming sign.

2. Reactor 4 fuel storage caught another fire again. I hope it doesn't do anything bad again.

3. I missed it somehow but it appears a volcano 950 miles from epicenter also erupted but it may not be connected to the 9.0 (yeah, officially upgraded to 9.0 from 8.9) quake.

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/mar/13/world/la-fgw-japan-quake-volcano-20110314

inspiredsports

One thing I'm simply baffled by is that our news programs are now running almost trial-like questioning of the Japanese nuclear regulators.

How in the world could a 40-year old plant not perfectly withstanding a 1,000 year maximum threshold event (9.0 quake) be the responsibility of the regulatory system?

nooshinjohn

megasat16 wrote: »

I missed it somehow but it appears a volcano 950 miles from epicenter also erupted but it may not be connected to the 9.0 (yeah, officially upgraded to 9.0 from 8.9) quake.

Yeah... no chance whatsoever they are related.:rolleyes: The entire northern region of the country shifted three feet. Yep... not related at all. I just love to hear scientists speculate about things that they really don't yet understand, and pass them off as if they know more than they really do. I have no doubt in my mind that within the next couple years there will be a major quake in California, due to the huge pressures generated by this event in Japan. The entire 'Ring of Fire" needs to be seen as an integrated disaster zone, and people that choose to live upon it need to be prepared for the worst, as it will come without warning.

vc69

Glad you cleared all of that up for us John. :rolleyes:

Outfitter03

Read online today that San Onofre's seismic design rating was a 7.0. That is not all that high for SO CAL. Diablo Canyon is at least a 7.5. Looks like they are calling for some more study.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/mar/15/regulators-want-new-study-san-onofres-earthquake-r/

Always interesting to arm chair quarterback actions of others but I believe the operators are doing everything they can in Japan and betting their own lives on it. I am sure that the remaining staff are probably there for the duration and hopefully will be able to keep their dose rates low enough to pull through. Many of those battling the Chernobyl disaster weren't so lucky and the mortality rate was extremely high looking three years after the incident.

Looks like the not so costly lesson to be learned is having contingency plans for portable, locally generated power with a sustainable fuel supply. This must be mounted on high ground not in a low lying area right behind the sea wall like in Japan.

The explosions have been caused by hydrogen gas. The Zircaloy fuel cladding has a high affinity for oxygen, particularly when extremely hot. It literally robs the oxygen atoms out of the water and steam causing a release and buildup of hydrogen gas. When the very, very hot steam hydrogen gas mixture was vented into an oxygen rich environment (air) the explosions were the result.

nooshinjohn

vc69 wrote: »

Glad you cleared all of that up for us John. :rolleyes:

I do what I can.


Maybe someone with Geologic knowledge can chime in, but is it possible that the volcanic activity at Shinmoedake caused the earthquake? The volcano has been active for a couple months now...

BlueFox

megasat16 wrote: »

A few new developments in the nuke reactors

1. Radiation levels are decreasing so it appears no more leakage around the reactors and it's a very welcoming sign.

We all wish, but not quite.

"Japan suspended operations to prevent a stricken nuclear plant from melting down Wednesday after a surge in radiation made it too dangerous for workers to remain at the facility."

So, are they just going to let it meltdown, and then deal with the mess?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_japan_earthquake

cheddar

Yep, just saw this on the news. The CNN guys couldn't believe it and thought there must be an error in translation. If true, we don't need Justin to tell us things have just gone to some sort of worst case scenario. Those workers were the only thing holding the fires back and keeping the cores in water.

cheddar

*edit*

JustinHEMI

I am not sure how "suspending work" translates into just allowing them to melt?

The latest update indicates sea water is still flowing. It does say the workers involved were evacuated, but that doesn't mean they turned off injection.

http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/news_images/pdf/ENGNEWS01_1300252224P.pdf

Evacuating the workers is prudent.

Lets just take it one step at a time.

It looks to me like the gonzo journalism is melding all the problems together into one. They wouldn't be dropping water from heli's to cool the reactors... as they are contain in thick steel vessels. They would, however, drop water from heli's to put out the the fires around the spent fuel pools and perhaps to recover any uncovered spent fuel.

The spent fuel pools are another problem in and of themselves.

Justin

cheddar

JustinHEMI wrote: »

The latest update indicates sea water is still flowing. It does say the workers involved were evacuated, but that doesn't mean they turned off injection.

http://www.jaif.or.jp/english/news_images/pdf/ENGNEWS01_1300252224P.pdf

Evacuating the workers is prudent.

Lets just take it one step at a time.

It looks to me like the gonzo journalism is melding all the problems together into one. They wouldn't be dropping water from heli's to cool the reactors... as they are contain in thick steel vessels. They would, however, drop water from heli's to put out the the fires around the spent fuel pools and perhaps to recover any uncovered spent fuel.

The spent fuel pools are another problem in and of themselves.

Justin

I'm actually reading conflicting reports now that they are sending workers back in as the radiation level drops. But information is rather fluid now, so who knows what is actually happening.

While they may not be turning off systems, it does appear that fires and other items need a lot of attention from workers on site. I know we don't really have all the information we need to make judgments about what is actually happening, but it appears that it remains an ongoing possibility that the equipment may not be able to keep up with the problems they keep having. And that even the spent fuel pools are in danger of boiling off. I can't imagine it is good news that there may be extended periods when there is no one on site to take care of things like putting out fires or adding water to the spent fuel pools.

cheddar

And I guess just a question about your latest pdf, even with injection continuing, it still appears they are having trouble keeping water levels where they need to be. And that they may have lost containment integrity on two of the reactors. And the spent fuel pools in the damaged unit 4 with all the fires is open to the environment. Am I reading this correctly?

Ron-P

We see stuff like that is so many Hollywood films, it so difficult to believe it's real.