Scary virus outbreak in China
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Yes, it appears to be getting worse in China. At some point it is going to break loose, and the US, and world, will be like China. At that point the US and world economy will collapse, so I need to check with my investment firm tomorrow, and get out of stocks and move into something more stable.
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Good grief. Enough with the doomsday scenario already...
AFAIK, only one person has died so far outside of China as a direct result of this virus. Y'all are starting to sound like the...
This is just the flavor of the month. *rolls eyes*
Tom
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Yes, it appears to be getting worse in China. At some point it is going to break loose, and the US, and world, will be like China. At that point the US and world economy will collapse, so I need to check with my investment firm tomorrow, and get out of stocks and move into something more stable.
Like guns and ammo?
And gold.Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel…….Samuel Johnson
Since we don’t know where we are going we have to stick together in case someone gets there….Ken Kesey
To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.
– Kevin Alfred Strom -
motorhead43026 wrote: »Yes, it appears to be getting worse in China. At some point it is going to break loose, and the US, and world, will be like China. At that point the US and world economy will collapse, so I need to check with my investment firm tomorrow, and get out of stocks and move into something more stable.
Like guns and ammo?
And gold.
Coffee, tobacco, and whiskey too...
Also hot sauce, anything is edible with hot sauce
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Why does anybody book a cruise? Seems so many people get stuck on a boat
With flu outbreaks. Sorry, if I wanted to be crammed on a boat with thousands of people I'd join the Navy."The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg." --Thomas Jefferson -
sucks2beme wrote: »Why does anybody book a cruise? Seems so many people get stuck on a boat
With flu outbreaks. Sorry, if I wanted to be crammed on a boat with thousands of people I'd join the Navy.
I don't get the fascination with cruises either. I've never been on one and really have no desire to go on one. But there are many young guys where I work who raid their 401K's to go on cruises so obviously we must be overlooking something
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ok, raiding 401k to cruise? That's doubling down on stupid.
Imagine being one of the people currently on lockdown for the next 18 days
and if positive, even longer. I don't think many employers are going to be
very happy with that. I saw an interview with one released from Japan.
They were tested, but didn't have results yet, then lied that they were cleared and
flew back to the US. They came down with it in flight. This is the stuff that
is going to bring it back to the US and start BIG problems. I'm hoping they
broke a law.
"The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg." --Thomas Jefferson -
sucks2beme wrote: »Why does anybody book a cruise? Seems so many people get stuck on a boat
With flu outbreaks. Sorry, if I wanted to be crammed on a boat with thousands of people I'd join the Navy.
Hot bunking and mostly men? I'd rather be on a cruise -
Signature line material right there, folks!sucks2beme wrote: »ok, raiding 401k to cruise? That's doubling down on stupid.
...
Hey, @Hermitism, think you can rustle up a "Signature Line Material" badge thingy for us some time (you know, while you're restin'...)?
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Oh, speaking of the folks returned to the US via charter flight(s) -- did y'all read about/see the accommodations they had? Since they were trying to maintain on-plane isolation of the virus-positive passengers, apparently a quick retrofit of a couple of air freight 747s was performed. No windows, portapotties, an isolation pod and quickly-installed seats. De luxe.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8011381/Isolation-chambers-installed-planes-bringing-400-Americans-Diamond-Princess.html -
sucks2beme wrote: »Why does anybody book a cruise? Seems so many people get stuck on a boat
With flu outbreaks. Sorry, if I wanted to be crammed on a boat with thousands of people I'd join the Navy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmGuy0jievs -
sucks2beme wrote: »Why does anybody book a cruise? Seems so many people get stuck on a boat
With flu outbreaks. Sorry, if I wanted to be crammed on a boat with thousands of people I'd join the Navy.
Thank you in advance for your service...
I was a Marine. Close enough. Short rides were all we had to deal with."The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg." --Thomas Jefferson -
Just off the phone with financial advisor. Turns out we are on same page since they are already planning on a stock market hit in the US from this disease. The question is how big. Anyway, now we are in a wait and see mode.Lumin X1 file player, Westminster Labs interconnect cable
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Stock market takes a hit if someone tweets the wrong thing. These things come and go, markets go down and up but this is not going to be the end of the world type of virus. Markets have corrections , that's like investing 101 isn't it.HT SYSTEM-
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markets go low, time to buy!
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The stock market(s) hate uncertainty. They don't mind bad news (or good news). Almost always, the response of the markets to an anticipated event is baked in by the time that event actually occurs.
We're - arguably - past peak uncertainty with this particular virus outbreak. So far, the markets have been surprisingly disinterested.
Not uninterested, but not over-interested, either.
at 3pm EST Apple's sales forecast adjustment was bad for them; has a little effect on the market so far (down 0.5% today, an hour before the close)
Like everything else, there're smart investments... and not so smart investments.
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The markets are headed down anyway. The FED announced they are ending repo purchases for awhile, so liquidity will dry up as a result. Never understood with such a good economy why this was a thing anyway, but it has helped drive/prop the market up beyond what it should be. The FED can always fire the Repo market back up at will.
Current stock market PE ratios to SP 500 earnings is 25.37% which is a bit rich.
GDP for 2019 came it at 2.1% , 2020 is projected (before China's problems) to be 1.9%. if there are supply chain interruptions GDP could take a hit, hard to project now and before what's in the pipeline is used up this China thing could be over, only time will tell.
I am sure the calls for interest rate cuts will get louder if things start going to far south. We have an election coming up in case you've been asleep.
Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel…….Samuel Johnson
Since we don’t know where we are going we have to stick together in case someone gets there….Ken Kesey
To learn who rules over you, simply find out who you are not allowed to criticize.
– Kevin Alfred Strom -
^^^ Yup.
Longest US economic expansion ever (as of July 2019)... so, yeah, gettin' to be time for a correction/recession.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/07/02/americas-economic-expansion-is-now-the-longest-on-record
Just remember the mantra:
The stock market is not the economy, and the economy is not the stock market.
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Just off the phone with financial advisor. Turns out we are on same page since they are already planning on a stock market hit in the US from this disease. The question is how big. Anyway, now we are in a wait and see mode.
Looks like it is starting. Got out just in time. It might briefly recover, but once this virus breaks loose and hits this country then it will get worse for the stock market. Of course, that is minor compared to the effect on society this virus will have.
This is for Thursday, and today (Friday) it is continuing.
“U.S. stocks are falling on Thursday as a jittery Wall Street continues to eye the expansion of the coronavirus around the world.
Dow bulls are nervously watching what could be a new base camp for the disease in Daegu, South Korea.
The city of 2.5 million residents faces a possible quarantine.
The Dow Jones dropped sharply on Thursday, and the sudden 400 point dip left Wall Street scratching its head.”
https://www.ccn.com/this-is-why-the-dow-jones-unexpectedly-dove-on-thursday/Lumin X1 file player, Westminster Labs interconnect cable
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A long (long) disruption in the supply chain will have some effect on the market and maybe (??) even the global economy. I reckon that whether "the virus" is in the US or not (in an epidemic way) is, financially, secondary, because we don't have much to do with the global supply chain any more (sadly).
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some other virus "news", FWIW:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext
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If you get a Chinese virus and become cured, you can still get it again 2 hours later.
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Its an election year, folks. I would be very surprised if the market tanked.
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- A 10% market drop is considered a correction.
- A 20% drop is considered a bear market.
Look at the chart below, representing the S&P 500 (far more useful than the DJI 30 in my opinion, which is ridiculously narrow).- The correction at the end of 2018 (1) touched on bear market territory... That was painful! 🤕 It also provided multiple opportunities for the brave and courageous.
- The two major pullbacks early in 2019 (2) were also unpleasant, but anyone who couldn’t handle the pain from those simply should not be investing, because such pullbacks are inevitable, and in many cases, they can be a gift for entering the market.
- This week’s pullback (3) is peanuts in comparison. 🥜
Yeah, you're right -- the S&P is a better representation; I always default to the DJIA because I'm lazy
I am (still) none too worried about the markets... but we're (I think) sensibly diversified given our age and status (i.e., mostly retired).
When the stock market gets a little metastable, I always tell folks (including Mrs. H) don't look at your portfolios! There is nothing that leads folks to making really poor decisions about investments than looking at one's holdings and thinking "Jeepers, I just lost fifty thousand dollars today". Until you sell, it's a paper loss. It's not real -- until one does something with/about it. Sell when the asset's down, and now it's a real loss. Sometimes one needs some capital losses to write off capital gains for tax purposes. Sometimes.
Paper gains, likewise, ain't real.
For some reason, so many folks buy high, and sell low. Not a great long term strategy.Its an election year, folks. I would be very surprised if the market tanked.
oh it might, depending on what happens that first Tuesday in November.
Before then, naaah, not bloody likely. Not impossible, but not bloody likely.
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A Brit epidemiologist suggested a 24 day incubation.Don't take experimental gene therapies from known eugenicists.
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Got out of the market just in time. This is only going to get worse before it gets better, and no telling how long that will be. When it hits in the US is when the market will really drop out.
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Magico S5 MKII Mcast Rose speakers; SPOD spikes
Shunyata Triton v3/Typhon QR on source, Denali 2000 (2) on amps
Shunyata Sigma XLR analog ICs, Sigma speaker cables
Shunyata Sigma HC (2), Sigma Analog, Sigma Digital, Z Anaconda (3) power cables
Mapleshade Samson V.3 four shelf solid maple rack, Micropoint brass footers
Three 20 amp circuits. -
There is one thing about this virus that perplexes me. The death rate is not high at all. I think it is around 2-3%, yet all governments are acting as if it is much higher. Not quite sure how to process that.Lumin X1 file player, Westminster Labs interconnect cable
Sony XA-5400ES SACD; Pass XP-22 pre; X600.5 amps
Magico S5 MKII Mcast Rose speakers; SPOD spikes
Shunyata Triton v3/Typhon QR on source, Denali 2000 (2) on amps
Shunyata Sigma XLR analog ICs, Sigma speaker cables
Shunyata Sigma HC (2), Sigma Analog, Sigma Digital, Z Anaconda (3) power cables
Mapleshade Samson V.3 four shelf solid maple rack, Micropoint brass footers
Three 20 amp circuits.
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