Economic Depression

MLZ

a_mattison wrote: »

I'm no politics expert, nor do I feel very strong about either candidate, but I can't stand generalizations... The tax plan that is semi-detailed on Obama's website shows a tax CUT for anybody making under $250,000 per year and tax rates will go back up to what they were in the 1990's for those making over $250,000 per year. That effects around 2% ish of the population.

http://www.barackobama.com/taxes/

Since small business owners and entrepreneurs create most jobs, and earn the most money, economists often look at the top marginal rate as to whether these high functioning types will run the risk and invest many hours in their businesses which create jobs.

If the potential return is more than halved (> 50% to taxes) the risk taken will look less attractive.

schwarcw

The **** part of our economy is that it is not just fueld by the sale of good and services, but also by the interest on the debt. If people quit buying with credit cards, many businesses would be in trouble. If people used credit cards just for the convenience of the purchase, paid off the balance each month and would buy only on a cash available basis, many banks and investors would be in big trouble. There is just not enough money in servicing mortgages, car loans, small business loans, etc. to satisfy the banks.

markmarc

last week I was talking with other teachers in the lunchroom saying that 8500 would be the bottom. Well, we're just about there. Now I'm guessing 7,000 as the panic selling hasn't let up.

i find it interesting that the ban on short selling financials was lifted today and the dow dropped 680 points. that ban needs to go back in, and the "Mark to Market" rule suspended. That might get the banks to claim a new liquidity and start loaning again.

schwarcw

halenhoang wrote: »

actually, during the depression years of the late 20's, United States had the lowest unemployment rate.. statistically....

Do your research, unemployment was over 25%, and that was just an estimate.

exalted512

carpenter wrote: »

This is a recession, and indeed, it has the potential to develop into a nasty one.
However, A recession, even a deep one, is still not a depression.
The (world's actually) economy is down with an incapacitating flu.
Not a massive stroke or a cardiac arrest (depression).
When a healthy person in infected with the flu, he can't go to work,
eat right, sleep well, there's pain,fever and headaches. not fun.
(a lot of people loosing their homes, jobs, and savings are threatened)
However, if treated properly (The governments and central banks take big action,
and do everything possible to ensure they better protect the pubic
in the future , and actually succeed in convincing folks of that),
the brain, heart, lungs and skeleton are not damaged.
After an inevitable painful hilling period (an unfortunate recession) the body recovers.

Actually, we are not in a recession.
-Cody

polky noob

I find all the talk of when things will bottom out interesting.How long do we think that federal reserve can continue just making up money to infuse into the market?Since leaving the gold standard in 1971 the only value that the dollar has is our confidence in it basically.What we are witnessing right now is basically a lose in confidence in the market.There is no magic number for when confidence in getting a return on your investment either long term or short term will return.We are being forced to return to a system based on true value rather than one based on derivatives.

stebesplace

Its such a shame we rely on a private firm (the federal reserve) to handle producing our money instead of the actual government. So when our government wants to borrow, that is dept + interest. So our federal income tax is really only being used to pay that dept, more so the interest. And now we think it just dandy to spend 700 BIL more on that, which is even MORE dept + interest that we will have to pay back, ohh yeah, 10 BIL a month on Iraq...

polky noob

exalted512 wrote: »

Actually, we are not in a recession.
-Cody

You cant continue to hold on to the 6 consecutive quarters or whatever definition they came up with the reality is the market has lost almost 6000 points since last year.

exalted512

Its actually only 2. And were still not in a depression.

Am I saying theres nothing wrong? Hell no. Theres a lot wrong. But most of it is because of false information and exaggeration from the media and the people that think they know what theyre talking about spouting bull **** and continuing to scare the holy hell out of the consumer.
-Cody

Kex

exalted512 wrote: »

Actually, we are not in a recession.
-Cody

Not yet, technically, but I would expect the next quarterly figures will say that we are. The figures will always trail the reality and right now, it tastes like it and it feels like it. When you see stocks like Best Buy and Starbuck's hit new lows, 25% lower than previous lows, in just two weeks, it's probably because nobody thinks anybody can afford to buy flat screen TV without credit and the pinch will hurt those expensive coffee sales too.

Larry Kudlow (CNBC) has been ranting about the Goldilocks economy for two years or more (I don't really watch his show), and how it's the "greatest story never told", but it has never felt right, and now the shoe has dropped at last IMO. The adjustment is nigh!

exalted512

Well, I'm not sure if they've released the 3rd quarter's GDP, but the first two were positive.

But dear lord, does anyone think its going to get better if everyone is comparing this to the great depression? Its not going to get any better if people keep thinking its worse than it actually is. It is very bad, I'm not saying that. But were not anywhere near a great depression, not even close.
-Cody

Kex

exalted512 wrote: »

... But were not anywhere near a great depression, not even close.

Agree entirely, but we are dealing with so many unknowns and such huge numbers, that anything is possible.

Best case scenario: we're near the bottom.
Possible scenario: we still have 15-20% to go (was the last 50% drop in 1996 or 1974?)
Worst case: we have no idea where we are going and governments will eventually run out of rescue plans. It could take ten years ...

polky noob

Kex wrote: »

Agree entirely, but we are dealing with so many unknowns and such huge numbers, that anything is possible.

Best case scenario: we're near the bottom.
Possible scenario: we still have 15-20% to go (was the last 50% drop in 1996 or 1974?)
Worst case: we have no idea where we are going and governments will eventually run out of rescue plans. It could take ten years ...

Thats the thing if you are or were an investor what do you invest in right now?We have not even entered a panic really yet.Just a loss in confidence.

exalted512

If youre an investor, you dont really invest right now. if anything, pharmaceuticals. Unless, youre in for the long term, id start buying up tomorrow or next friday. If youre really looking for something this instant, id be looking at IBM or jpm, pharmaceutical companies are pretty steady reguardless of economic divisions, but i havent been looking too much into them
-Cody

m00npie

Just today, I received a pre-approved credit card mailing from....

Wamu!

All is well

PolkThug

Surviving brokerages are making a killing on the volume of trading right now. Approximately, the top 12 trading days of all time have been within the last 21 days. I've geared up to do a lot of buying in the next two weeks, equities today at 1998 prices!

Dennis Gardner

The main reason we haven't shown to be in a recession is that the Fed changed the rules of how we report under Greenspan. Costs of fuel and food isn't in the calculations anymore and that is definately 2 areas that I've seen increases in costs.

brettw22

As soon as I get a job again, I'm gonna be dumping a ton of money into the market. What better way to get huge buys in at low prices and then watch it go back up for a while.............

John30_30

schwarcw wrote: »

The **** part of our economy is that it is not just fueld by the sale of good and services, but also by the interest on the debt. If people quit buying with credit cards, many businesses would be in trouble. If people used credit cards just for the convenience of the purchase, paid off the balance each month and would buy only on a cash available basis, many banks and investors would be in big trouble. There is just not enough money in servicing mortgages, car loans, small business loans, etc. to satisfy the banks.

You know what banks call people who pay off their credit card debt in full each month?

Deadbeats. Skinbags. etc. They want the ones they can sink their claws into.

shack

stebesplace wrote: »

Its such a shame we rely on a private firm (the federal reserve) to handle producing our money instead of the actual government. So when our government wants to borrow, that is dept + interest. So our federal income tax is really only being used to pay that dept, more so the interest. And now we think it just dandy to spend 700 BIL more on that, which is even MORE dept + interest that we will have to pay back, ohh yeah, 10 BIL a month on Iraq...

It would be nice if you knew what you are talking about before you start typing such crap...You obviously don't understand the Fed and like many others don't understand what the so called bailout does.

The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It was founded by Congress in 1913 to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system. Over the years, its role in banking and the economy has expanded.

The Federal Reserve System is considered to be an independent central bank because its decisions do not have to be ratified by the President or anyone else in the executive branch of government. The System is, however,
subject to oversight by the U.S. Congress. The Federal Reserve must work within the framework of the overall objectives of economic and financial policy established by the government; therefore, the description of the System as “independent within the government” is more accurate.

There is nothing private about the Fed.

dorokusai

markmarc wrote: »

last week I was talking with other teachers in the lunchroom saying that 8500 would be the bottom. Well, we're just about there. Now I'm guessing 7,000 as the panic selling hasn't let up.

i find it interesting that the ban on short selling financials was lifted today and the dow dropped 680 points. that ban needs to go back in, and the "Mark to Market" rule suspended. That might get the banks to claim a new liquidity and start loaning again.

When I think economic advice, I think lunchroom chats with folks trying to drink more coffee so they don't kill students.

Shack makes my nether region come alive.

m00npie

dorokusai wrote: »

Shack makes my nether region come alive.

I pray I won't see your nether region next weekend

dorokusai

Everything you bought from me has spent time with my naked body. I don't know what they call it, but I love to rub myself on cold metal.

SKsolutions

The Federal Reserve is the most private bank. Congress, nor the President has any control over it. A vague report every so often, does not constitute "oversight". There is not one Congressman that has EVER been to a Fed meeting. Like, EVER. That's as private as it gets. Being a checking account for the .gov doesn't make it any less a private group of bankers. The contraction of the money supply during the margin calls of the last crash, which ended up prolonging the Depression, is proof enough that there is no .gov control, and that the Fed only acts in it's own best interest. They made Billions in the Depression buying other banks out at pennies on the dollar. Sound familiar? It's good for business, . . . like endless wars. It is the most evil enterprise on the face of the planet. Only those who are misinformed or those that benefit, would defend it.

Our fathers fought the Revolution, in a large part, to separate us from the Central Bank of England. The colonists and founders knew about the perils of Central Banking, and wrote the Constitution very carefully to strictly forbid it. Apparently, not carefully enough. The Fed Act, was a bill written by bankers, for bankers. It was not of the Legislature. So, two days before Christmas in 1913, a bill written in secret, was 'voted' on by only those that were instructed to be there and while Congress was not in session. This was all done in return for unlimited campaign contributions to Woodrow Wilson. Later, he lamented: "I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men (the Fed). We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the civilized world. No longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men." W.W.

stebesplace

shack wrote: »

It would be nice if you knew what you are talking about before you start typing such crap...You obviously don't understand the Fed and like many others don't understand what the so called bailout does.

The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It was founded by Congress in 1913 to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system. Over the years, its role in banking and the economy has expanded.

The Federal Reserve System is considered to be an independent central bank because its decisions do not have to be ratified by the President or anyone else in the executive branch of government. The System is, however,
subject to oversight by the U.S. Congress. The Federal Reserve must work within the framework of the overall objectives of economic and financial policy established by the government; therefore, the description of the System as “independent within the government” is more accurate.

There is nothing private about the Fed.

So you must feel its alright that (and read SKsolutions post above) our banking system is run by a select few individuals, all private bankers of course, who can dictate who gets rich, where money goes, how much our government can get, and for each dollar spent, taxk on interest as debt - right out the door, etc.? I genuinely want to know if you agree that the Federal Reserve is a GOOD thing, and that we NEED it, even in times like this? And I quote, from our $1 bill: "This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private"

What does that even really mean? Certainly doesn't sound like gold or silver backed money, especially not since the Fed makes our money, adds interest, and then charges us through the IRS, which is all an exception given the 16th amendment of the Constitution. Its all a big scam in this country, and we all buy into it. You, me, everyone. When you pay your federal taxes, where does that money go? It goes into the interest associated with borrowed money from the Fed, which is about as Federal as Federal Express (not my quote). This is all textbook material. This was the premise on how this country, this system, was built.

Who thinks this is a good idea?

stebesplace

shack wrote: »

Hopefully everyone will learn from this...quit being greedy, work hard and earn what you have and forget the "get rich quick" strategies, live within your means, understand what you invest in, and on..an on...and on...

I couldn't edit my previous post, quoting you on this, but i couldn't agree more on this fact. It really hits home that so many people take advantage of others, try to get rich quick, but in the end, screw themselves, and many other people in the process. I know its Hollywood, but the movie Wallstreet comes to mind in this situation...

Ricardo

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hoosier21

bobman1235 wrote: »

My 401k is down over 30% year to date. 30%!

Just 30%, mine is down 38%

kgingras

shack wrote: »

The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It was founded by Congress in 1913 to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system. Over the years, its role in banking and the economy has expanded.

There is nothing private about the Fed.

LOL. You need to read up on some history. When it was founded, planned and discussed on Jekyll island, JPM amongst other bankers were heavily represented (Henry Davison & Benjamin Strong). Other founding members represented Rockefeller and the Rothchild's. I don't think it's a coincidence that JPM benefited from this crisis. Although we don't have access to the Financial Statements of the quasi-private Federal Reserve System, I'm pretty sure they are also making record profits these days - paid for by the USA. Coincidence? Is it a coincidence that they massively gain market share due to those events?

jdhdiggs

Jstas wrote: »

DING! Fries are done.

Hey John, Do I mock you for the way you do your IT work? No? Ok, then you might want to back off when discussing something you know very little about m'kay sport? Thanks! :rolleyes:

Sorry I don't want to start going through the detailed analysis for everyone but I do have real work to do...