Housing market's gonna crash

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  • GlennDog
    GlennDog Posts: 3,120
    edited June 2023
    ..
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  • aprazer402
    aprazer402 Posts: 3,145
    edited June 2023
    As of tonight in the Omaha metro area I made a search for only single-family detached residences (no condos or town homes) the MLS shows:

    Only 1063 active listings, of which 524 are new construction and 539 are existing homes.

    The 524 new construction have an average list price of $557,347 with an average of 89 days on market.
    The 539 existing homes have an average list price of $516,446 with an average of 19 days on market.

    There are 498 pending sales of new construction, average LP $521,482, average 39 days on market.
    There are 1032 pending sales of existing homes, average LP $356,016, average 8 days on market.

    There are only 108 active listings of existing homes between $200,000 and $300,000.
    There are only 85 active listings of existing homes listed for less that $200,000.

    The lowest priced new homes are tract-built split-entry (or split-foyer, or bi-level) whatever your market calls them. Smallest have 1242 SF GLA, probably 300 sf finished basement, two car garage, right at $290,000, then upward very fast from there, depending on location, extras...

    So our market is strong, even residential rental is strong, hard to find a decent apartment for less than $1,500/month. Very low vacancy rates.

    Commercial, industrial are strong a lot going up (Google, Amazon, Mutual of Omaha (new skyscraper in the CBD)...
    However, retail and office space (for sale and for lease) have an over supply.

    So things are okay here for now. Just not enough home inventory. Still seeing multiple offers with
    escalation clauses, buyers waiving inspections and appraisal gaps.

    Obviously your area could be drastically different.



    Post edited by aprazer402 on
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  • ken brydson
    ken brydson Posts: 8,752
    $290k in the PNW has wheels or is a complete tear down...
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  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 5,175
    According to Zillow, prices in my area bottomed in January 2023. They are already almost back to the peak values of April 2022.
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  • audioluvr
    audioluvr Posts: 5,578
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  • huggies
    huggies Posts: 149
    edited June 2023
    Housing market will be fine. My home is about back to its peak. AZ home market getting hot again. The commercial real estate sector though is about to come crashing down real hard.
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  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 33,766
    ^^^ That does seem to be in the cards (as they say) -- heard a piece on Marketplace tonight talking about the uncertainty of commercial real estate.
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  • xschop
    xschop Posts: 5,000
    Commercial real estate relies on commerce, of which has come to an abrupt and artificial lull.
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  • pitdogg2
    pitdogg2 Posts: 25,412
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/airbnb-revenue-collapse-sparks-housing-market-crash-fears/ar-AA1d9eGz?
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  • tonyb
    tonyb Posts: 32,957
    While commercial real estate will and is taking a dump, corporations are slowly laying off people in rounds. Once that gains momentum, and people can't pay their mortgages....boom, the private sector housing will come down. Inflation looks to have no relief in the near future also adding to the hurt.

    If nobody has noticed lately, most our problems are engineered, created, until you've had enough and comply, or stfu.
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  • xschop
    xschop Posts: 5,000
    Look on the bright side, a bunch of keyboard trolls will be moved out their basements by sheriff evictions.
    Don't take experimental gene therapies from known eugenicists.
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  • sucks2beme
    sucks2beme Posts: 5,601
    A quick look at real estate in other places I've lived,
    I don't see falling prices yet. Not sure why. You'd
    think high interest and a stagnant GNP would cool
    the market quickly. The signs are there, yet it hasn't
    hit the market much, except for some $$$ areas of
    California and Florida.
    "The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg." --Thomas Jefferson
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  • aprazer402
    aprazer402 Posts: 3,145
    I see a lot of older homeowners that refinanced at 2%-3% 1-2 years ago that are staying put rather than moving up or lateral because they have such a great interest rate not available today. So less sellers (housing inventory) and still high demand keeps prices up. For now that is. I wish I could predict what's going to happen. Don't we all!
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  • GlennDog
    GlennDog Posts: 3,120
    edited June 2023
    Buyers here in the metro Detroit area are over-bidding by 10-20% and waving contingencies . . . NUTS
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  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 19,004
    Might I interject and speculate that it is the millions that are coming across our borders that have something to do with it?

    They are shipped everywhere and need a roof over their heads.

    Tom
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  • engtaz
    engtaz Posts: 7,663
    Once foreclosures start, then it will crash. People won't be able to sustain the overprice mortgages. Just like the last time.
    engtaz

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  • sucks2beme
    sucks2beme Posts: 5,601
    Given current prices and rental costs, I don't see many immigrants
    showing up in my neighborhood. Of course, some landlords may start piling
    Large groups in houses. This is going to cause some real pushback.
    The current situation of just dropping off bus loads off here and there
    Is insanity.
    "The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg." --Thomas Jefferson
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  • skipshot12
    skipshot12 Posts: 1,157
    Keiko wrote: »
    engtaz wrote: »
    In Florida housing market still high. Transplants from other states keeping it high.

    People are fleeing from the blue to the red.

    My brother just left visiting us from Florida. One of the guys he works with at KSC just got his new homeowners quote for next year.... went from $3500 to $10,000. Insurance company said it was to cover for the loses of recent canes. My brother's insurance doubled for next year. Needless to say they're dropping and shopping.
    Glad I left when I left 😬
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  • xschop
    xschop Posts: 5,000
    treitz3 wrote: »
    Might I interject and speculate that it is the millions that are coming across our borders that have something to do with it?

    They are shipped everywhere and need a roof over their heads.

    Tom

    Just like what is happening in France as we speak.
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  • VR3
    VR3 Posts: 28,611
    edited July 2023
    I tried finding a newer map but no luck.

    The short term rental market definitely skews the overall market in a big way

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  • billbillw
    billbillw Posts: 6,741
    VR3 wrote: »
    I tried finding a newer map but no luck.

    The short term rental market definitely skews the overall market in a big way

    5an9s1dc59nd.jpg


    I'm sure it has gotten worse over the last 7 years. During the buying frenzy in 2021-2022 before interest rates went up, I read that something like 60% of the sales were going to investment buyers. That's on top of all the investment buyers that scooped up the majority of foreclosures between 2009-2013. It has become immensely harder to buy your own home in the last couple years.
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  • VR3
    VR3 Posts: 28,611
    I would be curious to know if I buyers count as investment companies. I only say that because in 2020 and 2021, zillow, redfin, open door, offerpad, etc were buying as tremendous amount of property. Statistically, less then 20% of what they bought was resold to a rental company/REIT.

    This would skew those numbers tremendously.

    But the Airbnb issue is huge I believe in many markets.
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  • xschop
    xschop Posts: 5,000
    edited July 2023
    Blackrock has now effectively cornered the market and will keep squeezing until there's no blood to let.

    https://slate.com/business/2021/06/blackrock-invitation-houses-investment-firms-real-estate.html
    Don't take experimental gene therapies from known eugenicists.
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  • odcics2
    odcics2 Posts: 331
    Had a 12% mortgage in 1981.
    Kids today have it easy!
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  • VR3
    VR3 Posts: 28,611
    edited July 2023
    So tired of reading people comparing then to now. Joking or not it's tiresome lol

    Median income 1981 $22,390
    inflation adjusted 2023 $74,910.93
    Median house value 1981 68,900
    Inflation adjusted $230,520.91

    Median income 2023 $56,940
    Median home value $348,853

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  • odcics2
    odcics2 Posts: 331
    I was sole support, making $15K a year for the family.
    House was $46K.
    Put 20% down.

    That was a lot of money at the time.

    So tired about people rambling about medians.
    Not everyone is rich!
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  • VR3
    VR3 Posts: 28,611
    So you were making 45k and bought a house for essentially 150k... That's pretty reasonable

    When I bought my house in 09 I paid 80k, 2 bed 1 bath. That same size house today is close to 200k in my area

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  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 19,004
    Our mortgage is about 1200/mo for 3K SF, sitting on over an acre and we don't have to pay for water/sewer because we are on a well. The cheapest apartment right now in our area is barely 900SF and the last time I checked, rents out at 1850/MO plus water/sewer.

    How are young people supposed to wing it when they first start out? Let alone, save up for the 20% down with rent rates and mortgage rates/purchase prices so damned high?

    It's not like they can have roommates in a 900SF apartment.....

    Tom
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  • odcics2
    odcics2 Posts: 331
    VR3 wrote: »
    So you were making 45k and bought a house for essentially 150k... That's pretty reasonable

    When I bought my house in 09 I paid 80k, 2 bed 1 bath. That same size house today is close to 200k in my area
    I never liked being in debt.
    Had used cars for many years.
    I remember that first house being around 950 SF.

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  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 33,766
    treitz3 wrote: »
    ...
    How are young people supposed to wing it when they first start out? Let alone, save up for the 20% down with rent rates and mortgage rates/purchase prices so damned high?

    It's not like they can have roommates in a 900SF apartment.....

    Tom

    Well, not large-ish roommates, at any rate. :#


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