Housing market's gonna crash
Comments
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In Florida housing market still high. Transplants from other states keeping it high.
People are fleeing from the blue to the red. -
True. Where can you go when you’re in the middle of the Pacific? Find like-minded folk ... whereverAC Regenerator PS Audio PerfectWave Power Plant 10
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The Petro-Dollar is done. BRICS will put the proverbial nail in the hyper-inflated $.Don't take experimental gene therapies from known eugenicists.
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The Petro-Dollar is done. BRICS will put the proverbial nail in the hyper-inflated $.
when?
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When eggs reach $2 EA. So in Cantafordya, next week.Don't take experimental gene therapies from known eugenicists.
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Been happening...
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erat interfectorem cesar et **** dictatorem dicere a -
Speakers: Polk Lsim, ATC SCM19 v2, NHT SuperzeroSpeaker Cables: DH Labs, Transparent, Wireworld, Canare, Monster: Beer budget, Bose ears
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Had a few friends leave Hawaii. I mean indigenous, locals who have lived here all their life. Hawaii is a blue travesty, literally. Will have to leave it there before someone gets butthurt.
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Wow! I didn't know about HI.
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The nail has been set and pounded a few times. Soon the $ won't be the WRC for a number of reasons, but mainly hyper-inflation and the destabilized part of the opposite side of the hemisphere. NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine and Putin about to pull the trigger. I guess when you can buy a couple chickens cheaper than a dozen eggs is when the dollar is worthless... No too far from it.Don't take experimental gene therapies from known eugenicists. -
Wow! I didn't know about HI.
Yeah, wasn't always this way. Same as California where I grew up during the 60s & 70s. Cali used to be a nice place. Not anymore. I enlisted in the military after high school and got stationed here in Hawaii back in 1980. Loved it here. met my wife of 43yrs now here. When I got discharged from the Army, I stayed. A certain collective has certainly screwed things up for the worse in paradise for sure. Only by God's grace are we able to hang on to make ends meet. -
Could be worse. Could be living in Turkey.
I'm fed up too.
Problem with the world is:
1. There are too many people.
2. The wealthy are greedy and could care less about everyone else.
3. The politicians are wealthy and compulsive liars( all sides) (see #2)
4. The media is dividing our nation and creating a hateful nation. I hate that...
5. Regardless of what people are trying to do to help (the economy, the environment, the infrastructure, the security of our nation, the elderly, etc. etc., there are huge profits to be made and poor unsuspecting people to be exploited and that's okay because everyone else is doing it.
6. There is no ELE type asteroid barreling towards earth to make it all better.
Edit:
7. Beer is not free nor easy to make.Gustard X26 Pro DAC
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So, read this today.
Pretty bleak.
Also, there's implications here that because of aggressive rate hikes intended to cut inflation due to the housing market bubble and the gubmint printing money, the only reason the housing bubble hasn't crashed yet is price stabilization. The housing prices have plateaued and it's not because the market has found balance. It's because the cooling of the credit markets due to higher risks for borrowers means less applications for loans and subsequently less competition driving values up.
The feds haven't cut inflation, they've just staved it off so it doesn't coincide with the election cycle
https://fortune.com/2023/06/15/economy-recession-federal-reserve-powell-deutsche-bank-hard-landing/
Expert Moron Extraordinaire
You're just jealous 'cause the voices don't talk to you! -
This one is similar and not behind a paywall.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2023/06/15/recession-inevitable-deutsche-bank/70327467007/ -
Geez, sorry, wasn't behind a pay wall earlier.Expert Moron Extraordinaire
You're just jealous 'cause the voices don't talk to you! -
The German economy is kind of struggling -- and officially in recession (because they define recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth... which we don't... anymore
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The economy in the US is -- really, really odd these days.
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We've had 3 consecutive quarters of negative growth and shaping up for a 4th.Expert Moron Extraordinaire
You're just jealous 'cause the voices don't talk to you! -
... and the stock market's through the roof.
Go figure.
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mhardy6647 wrote: »... and the stock market's through the roof.
Go figure.
I think it's being driven up on purpose by all this free money the Gov't has been printing. It is an illusion which is going to make the fall that much harder.The Gear... Carver "Statement" Mono-blocks, Mcintosh C2300 Arcam AVR20, Oppo UDP-203 4K Blu-ray player, Sony XBR70x850B 4k, Polk Audio Legend L800 with height modules, L400 Center Channel Polk audio AB800 "in-wall" surrounds. Marantz MM7025 stereo amp. Simaudio Moon 680d DSD
“When once a Republic is corrupted, there is no possibility of remedying any of the growing evils but by removing the corruption and restoring its lost principles; every other correction is either useless or a new evil.”— Thomas Jefferson -
The Fortune article is available to Apple News subscribers.Deutsche Bank’s top minds put U.S. recession chance near 100%—and say avoiding a hard landing would be ‘historically unprecedented’
It appears as if U.S. economists may have popped the Champagne corks on a soft landing too early—at least according to Deutsche Bank.
The German multinational bank’s top research team believes Washington has sparked a boom-bust cycle that now is nearing its end stage. In its house view, the recession slated to arrive as soon as October is the inevitable consequence of a series of aggressive rate hikes designed to extinguish the very flames of inflation that policymakers ignited through their own actions during the COVID pandemic.
“Avoiding a hard landing would be historically unprecedented,” warned group chief economist David Folkerts-Landau in a research report titled The Clock Is Ticking, published on Wednesday.
This bleak view contrasts with recent investor bullishness as well as the belief that the Federal Reserve has seemingly pulled off the impossible by cooling an overheated economy without sparking a recession, leaving only deflated asset prices as collateral damage—a “non-recession recession” as private equity firm Apollo Global Management called it last month.
Germany’s only bulge bracket bank uses an indicator that attempts to measure the probability of a recession in the next 12 months. Currently it is handicapping the chances of a contraction in U.S. economic activity “near 100%”—in other words, a virtual certainty. But in order for this to occur, one thing has to happen first: Consumers must exhaust the last of their savings stored up from COVID lockdowns.
“These will not be depleted until nearer year-end,” Folkerts-Landau wrote, so “things are going to script for our Q4 recession timeline.”
Additional headwinds in the latter half of the year will come from the government mandate for college graduates to resume repaying their federal student debt. For more than the past three years, there has been a moratorium on payments and interest accrual in place owing to the pandemic.
Germany’s only bulge bracket bank uses an indicator that attempts to measure the probability of a recession in the next 12 months. Currently it is handicapping the chances of a contraction in U.S. economic activity “near 100%”—in other words, a virtual certainty. But in order for this to occur, one thing has to happen first: Consumers must exhaust the last of their savings stored up from COVID lockdowns.
“These will not be depleted until nearer year-end,” Folkerts-Landau wrote, so “things are going to script for our Q4 recession timeline.”
Additional headwinds in the latter half of the year will come from the government mandate for college graduates to resume repaying their federal student debt. For more than the past three years, there has been a moratorium on payments and interest accrual in place owing to the pandemic.
Fed reversal expected for March with ‘aggressive’ easing to come
Worse, Deutsche estimates the United States will stay there in the year to come—just as the November presidential election campaign kicks off with the Iowa caucus. In fact, it believes the U.S. will be the only leading industrial nation to see its economy shrink in 2024, when activity will contract by four-tenths of a percent after adjusting for inflation. By comparison, it should still grow by 1.4% this year, according to Folkerts-Landau’s team.
Other G7 countries have little reason to cheer either, though. The rosiest 2024 performance could top out at a tepid 0.8% in Japan, while both Germany and the eurozone as a whole should expand at a rate of just half of one percent.
Deutsche believes that businesses and consumers have not yet adjusted to the current higher interest-rate regime, following a decade or more with rates either negative or effectively zero, as well as near-continuous quantitative easing across the U.S. and Europe.
Geopolitical tensions, in particular with regard to the war in Ukraine, as well as food price inflation from a possible El Niño weather phenomenon could pose additional curveballs that are difficult to calculate but could have major implications for growth.
Markets might however brush the disappointing performance aside, as the bank expects the Federal Reserve will embark on an “aggressive” policy-easing cycle starting in March that brings the Fed funds rate from its 5.4% terminal level down to 2.625% in the third quarter. On Wednesday, the Fed did not hike for the first time after 10 straight meetings.
As a result, the S&P 500—which typically prices in future developments roughly six months in advance—should finish this year at 4,500, up from 4,373 currently and 3,840 at the start of this year.
“We expect the grind higher to be choppy,” Deutsche cautioned.Alea jacta est! -
It's a very sloppy analysis.
First of all, if correct, a 0.4% contraction is hardly worthy of such a hyperbolic headline. What's so "hard" about -0.4%?!
Secondly, even that is far from certain. Unemployment remains at historically low levels. If people are employed, they will be spending money, just as they are now. If they are spending money, any recession is far from certain. Corporations continue to enjoy extraordinarily healthy balance sheets.
Finally, if we manage to "land" with a contraction of a mere 0.4% while there is the closest thing to World War III being waged in Europe since 1945, and, per the author of the Deutsche Bank report, Europe manages to grow its economy in 2024 (even by a modest amount), I'd say that's quite a miraculous story under the circumstances.Alea jacta est! -
This one is similar and not behind a paywall.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2023/06/15/recession-inevitable-deutsche-bank/70327467007/
The USA Today article is perhaps more balanced in how it portrays the contents of the same report.Alea jacta est! -
Where was this decided? AFAIK, two consecutive quarters of contraction is still a recession by the standard definition.mhardy6647 wrote: »...because they define recession as two consecutive quarters of negative growth... which we don't... anymore
Alea jacta est! -
mhardy6647 wrote: »The German economy is kind of struggling...
The fact that ANY economy in Western Europe might be merely "struggling" is a miracle in and of itself, under the circumstances.Alea jacta est! -
Housing market here has held steady. But the rental market has
fallen on hard times. Rental housing rents are falling and houses
are vacant longer.
Restaurant prices are out of control. I'm sure more people will
be staying home. A sit down meal is going to cost $60 for two.
And that's watching the budget.
"The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg." --Thomas Jefferson -
The stock market is propped up by cost of goods....ie we are not selling more we are just paying more.
2-channel: Modwright KWI-200 Integrated, Dynaudio C1-II Signatures
Desktop rig: LSi7, Polk 110sub, Dayens Ampino amp, W4S DAC/pre, Sonos, JRiver
Gear on standby: Melody 101 tube pre, Unison Research Simply Italy Integrated
Gone to new homes: (Matt Polk's)Threshold Stasis SA12e monoblocks, Pass XA30.5 amp, Usher MD2 speakers, Dynaudio C4 platinum speakers, Modwright LS100 (voltz), Simaudio 780D DAC
erat interfectorem cesar et **** dictatorem dicere a -
Peter no longer has anything to rob, Paul will not be getting paid.Don't take experimental gene therapies from known eugenicists.
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The stock market reality is things are set up so that there's a
Steady increase in money coming in. So prices go up.
Gone are the old guidelines of stock price to profit ratios.
Now that everyone is an investor the sky is the limit.
So let the good times roll.
"The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg." --Thomas Jefferson -
401k investments.....
