Scary virus outbreak in China

deronb1

First I heard about China stealing the virus. Thought it originated over there from animals.

tonyb

Tom, I don't think that claim has been proven, so I dunno about throwing it out as fact.
I'd like to comment on that last paragraph but politics will enter big time.

treitz3

deronb1 wrote: »

First I heard about China stealing the virus. Thought it originated over there from animals.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/did-china-steal-coronavirus-canada-and-weaponize-it

https://www.theweek.in/news/world/2020/01/28/coronavirus-outbreak-a-result-of-chinese-biological-espionage.html

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/questions-surround-canadian-shipment-of-deadly-viruses-to-china-66254

Well, it looks like online history has already been re-written and the usual "fact checkers" that are usually proven wrong themselves are saying none of this happened. I guess at this point, there is merit in printed newspapers. They still have the articles. I first heard about this in December.

Anyhoo, we touched on this earlier in the thread. Believe what you want. They stole it or they didn't. Does not really matter what I or anybody else thinks if history gets rewritten live time. What matters is how did it get outside of a Level 4 Biohazard lab and "supposedly" end up in a food market about 20 miles away? Or have they re-written that too?

Tom

Gardenstater

Looks like there's a second case of community spread Corona Virus in the US now:

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/02/28/new-coronavirus-cases-in-northern-california-raise-alarm/23936667/

delkal

There was a paper on the viruses genetic sequence. They can tell it came out recently from a single source and has not mutated much. It was not a from a herd of sick animal carriers infecting different people. And one of the first cases was someone not associated to the meat market.

I thought the endangered animal meat market cover story was BS from the beginning. It was way to early in the epidemic for the Chinese to pinpoint the source and way to convenient to say it was from the Chinese eating rare and endangered animals. Trying to get people to stop eating endangered Pagolins is just more BS. They are not the carriers. It was weeks before the media even mentioned China's only official biosafety level 4 lab was 10 miles away from that meat market. Before that it was just the tin foil hat fringe mentioning it on message boards (and people laughing at them and saying they wear tin foil hats)

nooshinjohn

The report I read indicated that the virus started out as SARS, and the markers present indicated it had been manipulated in the lab with components of HIV. This is why the most effective treatments seem to be those designed to fight AIDS.

delkal

nooshinjohn wrote: »

The report I read indicated that the virus started out as SARS, and the markers present indicated it had been manipulated in the lab with components of HIV. This is why the most effective treatments seem to be those designed to fight AIDS.

Do you have a link? This doesn't sound probable.

But we will eventually find out if it was engineered by further sequencing of the virus. Scientist will be able to determine if a sequence matching another disease is spliced in. I wouldn't trust anything coming out of China but US labs should be able to tell.

My guess is they were studying a natural coronavirus strain and got sloppy. Someone or some animal got infected and got out.

Or if you really want some tin foil hat stuff how about this........someone was making some cash on the side selling the dead test animals to the meat market instead of incinerating them. We are talking about China.

BlueFox

Whether this virus was created in a lab, or is a mutation of an existing virus, is open for debate. Also, as a man-made virus it is pretty weak. However, at some point a man-made killer virus will be released either by a government, or a disgruntled person. The movie ‘12 Monkeys’ on this subject is excellent.

dragon1952

About the only way we can be better prepared is to have way better containment plans in place and then don't delay in using them. But even then there are just way too many incredibly stupid people out there.

tonyb

Tom, as time goes on every theory is gonna get shade thrown on it. This is China, truth and accountability just aren't going to happen. We may never know the full truth.

Imho....this was just a test, gather data on responses, infection paths, time it takes, etc. I highly doubt this was some sort of accident. Bio labs have many safe guards to prevent such things. Like Tom said, you just don't shove it in your lunchbox and walk out the front door of a bio lab. Many questions, not enough answers.

nooshinjohn

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/coronavirus-contains-hiv-insertions-stoking-fears-over-artificially-created-bioweapon

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-02-13/fighting-covid-19-with-drugs-targeting-hiv-malaria-ebola

tonyb

No Russ, it don't work like that. Lol

delkal

nooshinjohn wrote: »

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/coronavirus-contains-hiv-insertions-stoking-fears-over-artificially-created-bioweapon

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-02-13/fighting-covid-19-with-drugs-targeting-hiv-malaria-ebola

Interesting... thanks for the links. But after a little digging it appears that the Coronovirus / HIV hybrid idea had been disproven. The paper was originally published in a non peer reviewed journal and has been withdrawn.

From a follow up article. https://bioworld.com/articles/433087-article-headline

“From everything I’ve looked at, there is zero evidence for genetic engineering; it looks like normal evolution,” said Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, who has been using genomes sequences taken from patient samples to track the spread of the virus since Jan. 11.

“Thousands of mutations are distributed across the genome. If you’re engineering something, you wouldn’t do that. There are no signals for biological engineering. It looks like natural evolution,” Bedford told attendees of the AAAS meeting on Feb. 14.

Bedford also decried a paper published on the Biorxiv preprint server by scientists at the Indian Institutes of Technology, pointing to an “uncanny similarity” between COVID-19 and HIV. They claimed to have identified four insertions in the spike glycoprotein of COVID-19, through which the virus binds to the host cell, that are not present in other coronaviruses, but which looked the same as key structural proteins of HIV-1, a finding that they said “is unlikely to be fortuitous in nature.”

The research “was very shoddily done,” Bedford said. “The sequence differences are not unique to COVID-19. Closely related [bat] coronaviruses have these chunks as well. They are small motifs used by nature over and over again.”

The paper was swiftly withdrawn from Biorxiv, but the allegations continue to have a life of their own on social media, with stories headlined “Scientists confirm” COVID-19 is “man-made.”

BlueFox

Thanks delkal. Good response.

tonyb

China has only one level 4 bio lab for handling these types of viruses. Word is, the animals they do various tests on, are suppose to be cremated. Unless you want to make extra money and sell them to the street markets.....which some have done.

So the infected animals, and who knows what they are infected with, wind up in numerous people's bodies.

This seems to be the most likely explanation, most believable anyway. Except for....if your the only level4 bio lab in the country, and animals are being sold on the side, out the door, and nobody notices ? Or they do and don't care? If they don't care, why are they working around dangerous viruses? Recipe for an even bigger disaster.

maxward

News conference this evening indicates that there is one presumed case in Oregon (yet to be confirmed). Supposedly the person had no contact with people who may have been exposed. The person is hospitalized and heath authorities have traced possible contacts to an elementary school.

halen

I suspect AOC has posted a lot in this thread.

audioluvr

So I'm hoping high end audio will be really cheap when this is all said and done.

Tony M

audioluvr wrote: »

So I'm hoping high end audio will be really cheap when this is all said and done.

Yea, you call in your order. You then tell them when you will show up. They put it just outside the door before you show up.

or...

Amazon keeps on shipping to our doors. No signing for the items anymore and No returns though.

BlueFox

Sometimes I grocery shop on Amazon, and that is how they deliver.

Joey_V

With the market falling, there will be some deals to be had in audio. Good for buyers.

Toolfan66

Man my 401k was kicked in the nuts hard this week.. Ouch....

mhardy6647

Toolfan66 wrote: »

Man my 401k was kicked in the nuts hard this week.. Ouch....

As long as you're not retiring in the next, say, six weeks, it's not a huge deal, you know? It's a paper loss. You didn't have that money last week -- and you don't have it this week, either. You just don't have less of it.

In all seriousness, if one is a ways from retirement, it won't likely do much damage. If one is close to retirement, one's investment mix should be biased away from higher-risk vehicles like stocks and towards 'income' investments.

I feel bad because we were just getting ready to 'gift' some appreciated stock to our church for something -- now I am tempted to hold off for a while. Appreciated stock is a nice, painless way to be charitable and also avoid some capital gains! Everybody wins (but the Tax Bureau, that is)! We have some long-held stock in which our basis is virtually zero.
Just thought I'd throw that in, speaking of stock

Now, mind you, that doesn't mean that the next (I dunno) six or twelve months is gonna be all rainbows and unicorns... but the past couple of centuries suggest that the economy chugs along in the long term. And (I'd opine*) that the economy is the important parameter here, and the stock market is not the economy, and vice versa.

Massive shifts in population growth could shift that, of course -- but, again, so far so good.

_________________
* And what are my economics credentials? I hear you ask -- well... none... although our daughter is an economist.

motorstereo

mhardy6647 wrote: »

Toolfan66 wrote: »

Man my 401k was kicked in the nuts hard this week.. Ouch....

As long as you're not retiring in the next, say, six weeks, it's not a huge deal, you know? It's a paper loss. You didn't have that money last week -- and you don't have it this week, either. You just don't have less of it.

In all seriousness, if one is a ways from retirement, it won't likely do much damage. If one is close to retirement, one's investment mix should be biased away from higher-risk vehicles like stocks and towards 'income' investments.

I feel bad because we were just getting ready to 'gift' some appreciated stock to our church for something -- now I am tempted to hold off for a while. Appreciated stock is a nice, painless way to be charitable and also avoid some capital gains! Everybody wins (but the Tax Bureau, that is)! We have some long-held stock in which our basis is virtually zero.
Just thought I'd throw that in, speaking of stock

Now, mind you, that doesn't mean that the next (I dunno) six or twelve months is gonna be all rainbows and unicorns... but the past couple of centuries suggest that the economy chugs along in the long term. And (I'd opine*) that the economy is the important parameter here, and the stock market is not the economy, and vice versa.

Massive shifts in population growth could shift that, of course -- but, again, so far so good.

_________________
* And what are my economics credentials? I hear you ask -- well... none... although our daughter is an economist.

Thank you Doc; you made me feel a little bit better about the walloping my 401k took last week. I never thought of it that way as you can't lose something you really didn't have but it makes sense.

xschop

motorstereo wrote: »

mhardy6647 wrote: »

Toolfan66 wrote: »

Man my 401k was kicked in the nuts hard this week.. Ouch....

As long as you're not retiring in the next, say, six weeks, it's not a huge deal, you know? It's a paper loss. You didn't have that money last week -- and you don't have it this week, either. You just don't have less of it.

In all seriousness, if one is a ways from retirement, it won't likely do much damage. If one is close to retirement, one's investment mix should be biased away from higher-risk vehicles like stocks and towards 'income' investments.

I feel bad because we were just getting ready to 'gift' some appreciated stock to our church for something -- now I am tempted to hold off for a while. Appreciated stock is a nice, painless way to be charitable and also avoid some capital gains! Everybody wins (but the Tax Bureau, that is)! We have some long-held stock in which our basis is virtually zero.
Just thought I'd throw that in, speaking of stock

Now, mind you, that doesn't mean that the next (I dunno) six or twelve months is gonna be all rainbows and unicorns... but the past couple of centuries suggest that the economy chugs along in the long term. And (I'd opine*) that the economy is the important parameter here, and the stock market is not the economy, and vice versa.

Massive shifts in population growth could shift that, of course -- but, again, so far so good.

_________________
* And what are my economics credentials? I hear you ask -- well... none... although our daughter is an economist.

Thank you Doc; you made me feel a little bit better about the walloping my 401k took last week. I never thought of it that way as you can't lose something you really didn't have but it makes sense.

You lost the time invested, is all.

Joey_V

Just make sure you’re still contributing to your 401k, especially during a slide. That way you buy low.

BlueBirdMusic

Anyone heading to Las Vegas?

Gardenstater

“I think there’s a strong possibility that there’s local transmission going in California,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “In other words, the virus is spreading within California, and I think there’s a possibility other states are in the same boat — they just haven’t recognized that yet.”

Coronavirus is spreading through three more communities on the West Coast

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/a-second-case-of-coronavirus-found-through-spread-in-california/2020/02/28/ae53c93a-5a77-11ea-9b35-def5a027d470_story.html

This isn't going to help the stock market this coming week. Bear market will be at -20%.

Gardenstater

Anyone have ideas on stocks to buy that should benefit (yikes) from corona virus contagion that could continue to get caught up in the panic selling? We can't buy more audio equipment if we're broke.

Seeking alpha article:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4328476-stocks-to-watch-time-for-coronavirus-offense-defense?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=cost-ge-stocks-to-watch-time-for-coronavirus-offense-or-defense&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_content=link-2


"Investors have a lot to digest after panic over the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak sent the market tumbling to its worst weekly loss since 2008 and the 10-year Treasury yield to a record low. While the week ahead could include some coordinated actions by central banks to soothe anxiety, there are also likely to be more earnings warnings from multinationals across sectors. It could also be another volatile week for companies perceived as coronavirus plays such as iBio (NYSEMKT:IBIO), Alpha Pro Tech (NYSEMKT:APT), Lakeland Industries (NASDAQ:LAKE), Vaxart (NASDAQ:VXRT), Co-Diagnostics (NASDAQ:CODX), Inovio Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:INO), Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BCRX), Cocrystal Pharma (NASDAQ:COCP), Vir Biotechnology (NASDAQ:VIR), Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD), Qiagen (NYSE:QGEN), Owens & Minor (NYSE:OMI), Altimmune ((NASDAQ:ALT) and Allied Healthcare Products (NASDAQ:AHPI). On the economic calendar, PMI prints from across the world will be watched closely, as well as reports on durable goods orders and the February employment report. Amid all the market turmoil, energy sector eyes will be focused on Vienna as ministers gather to assess the economic situation and make a decision on output."

sucks2beme

yes. it's coming. No it's not world ending.
That's not a surprise. Every city will have it at some point.
I'm going to catch it. I'll deal with it. There- reality check complete.