Scary virus outbreak in China

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  • Joey_V
    Joey_V Posts: 8,480
    edited February 2020
    Willow wrote: »
    Would be nice to hear Joey's perspective on this.

    I am not sure where this will head, hopefully COVID19 will dissipate as the season progresses, much like SARS and MERS just all of a sudden "poofed" and disappeared.

    I do have concerns about US spread and what it will do to the financial industry among others. I have less concern about overall death rate, but it is still significant.

    Comparatively, COVID19 is approximately 300x more deadly than influenza.
    But a magnitude less deadly than SARS and MERS.
    Though COVID19 is more contagious that SARS or MERS.

    I would be scared if it got around in the major metropolitan areas, it can easily overwhelm health systems and hospitals without a doubt.... especially in the US where people seek medical attention for something as simple as the common cold or flu. If it got a hold of a major metropolitan area, you will definitely see a shutdown of sorts, panic, and an over-reaction like nothing else.

    Coronavirus is a known virus, but this one is slightly different.

    On my end, I have ended all unneccessary purchases (audio gear etc) and am beginning to hoard cash, supplies, water, powdered milk (for kids), etc. One alarm and it'll make your category 5 hurricane panic at the coastal cities appear like prepping for a drizzle of rain.

    Not sure why I feel differently about this one, didn’t flinch with Ebola, sars, or mers. Maybe it’s because I’m older and softer. Or more than likely it’s because I have 3 toddlers.

    Post edited by Joey_V on
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  • Joey_V
    Joey_V Posts: 8,480
    edited February 2020
    After seeing the Eagles in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago, I decided to reread an article written by Doug Monroe in February 2016 that appeared in several Atlanta publications. The article describes his battle with a superbug. It mentioned the illness of Glenn Frey, and I had an "aha" moment when I read it the first time regarding that we have some control of our illnesses.

    When Glenn Frey died, most all of the media said it was because of “complications” of rheumatoid arthritis, ulcerative colitis and pneumonia. Glenn Frey was in the NYC hospital to have surgery because of ulcerative colitis. He never had the surgery because the pneumonia could not be stopped. The article says when you read an obituary that says someone died from “complications” from pneumonia, cancer or some other condition, it generally means they died from sepsis.

    Sepsis strikes 1.5 million Americans each year, killing 258,000 — more than breast cancer, prostate cancer and AIDS combined. Sepsis is the No. 1 reason patients are readmitted to hospitals. So far, Congress hasn’t allocated any funds to fight it.

    Reading this article was my first introduction to to the "why" of probiotics, especially one which is a yeast-based probiotic, Florastor. Many other probiotics are bacteria-based and their effectiveness can be diminished by antibiotics.

    A week or two later, I saw Florastor mentioned again in the office of an gastroenterologist prior to a colonoscopy of a friend. I purchased Florastor and starting taking it the next day.

    Bud, I think you may feel better re the corona virus if you read this article, especially since you have been hospitalized recently.


    Fixing to Die
    http://specials.myajc.com/fixing-to-die/
    Battle with deadly superbug upends writer’s life.
    He’s one of the lucky ones.

    Sepsis by definition is 2 abnormal vital signs and a source for infection. Technically having the flu and a heart rate of 100 and a temp of 100.4 meets sepsis definition but the mortality is low. Take Tylenol and keep hydrated and your vitals normalize.

    Applying sepsis to the appropriate population and type of infection is key.

    Congress? No. What you need is less over reaction and better providers and physicians. In addition, better to address the pretest probability of succumbing to infection by addressing the crux of the health issue in the United States, obesity, unhealthy habits, and reliance on medication for solving diseases.
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  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 32,756
    Imagine the stress that an outbreak in the US is going to put on the medical billing and insurance EOB industries! Oh the humanity.

    :#

  • Joey_V
    Joey_V Posts: 8,480
    mhardy6647 wrote: »
    Imagine the stress that an outbreak in the US is going to put on the medical billing and insurance EOB industries! Oh the humanity.

    :#

    I fail to see the humor in this.
    Magico, JL, Emm, ARC Ref 10 line, ARC Ref 10 phono, VPI, Lyra, Boulder, AQ Wel, SRA Scuttle Rack, Bluesound
  • tonyb
    tonyb Posts: 32,897
    edited February 2020
    Joey_V wrote: »

    Congress? No. What you need is less over reaction and better providers and physicians. In addition, better to address the pretest probability of succumbing to infection by addressing the crux of the health issue in the United States, obesity, unhealthy habits, and reliance on medication for solving diseases.[/quote]



    Well said Joey, but we both know....ain't gonna happen.
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  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 32,756
    edited February 2020
    Joey_V wrote: »
    mhardy6647 wrote: »
    Imagine the stress that an outbreak in the US is going to put on the medical billing and insurance EOB industries! Oh the humanity.

    :#

    I fail to see the humor in this.

    As do I.
    It wasn't meant to be funny.
    As far as I can tell, the infrastructure of hospitals (at least here in the Northeast) is in poor operational condition and this is particularly bad timing to stress it. Do you see it differently from your position?

    EDIT: As far as I can tell, huge amounts of money are spent top line, but at the bottom line, patient care level (e.g., nursing staff), staffing levels are kept low, stress levels are high, and pay is not fabulous -- due to vigorous cost-cutting by hospital managers. That's what we see, and hear in northern New England, at any rate We've lost numerous small regional hospitals in this area in the last couple of years -- again, I am not sure that the system can take much stress right now today.
    Maybe things are better where you work.

    We are fortunate to have Dartmouth Hitchcock (hospital & school of medicine) close by, but their resources are finite.


  • Viking64
    Viking64 Posts: 6,583
    mhardy6647 wrote: »
    We are fortunate to have Dartmouth Hitchcock (hospital & school of medicine) close by, but their resources are finite.

    I worked on a movie there. :o
  • BlueFox
    BlueFox Posts: 15,251
    Stock market just opened, and it is now down over 600 points.
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  • ^^ a vote of confidence in the new COVID-19 Czar?
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    The best way to predict the future is to invent it.

    It is imperative that we recognize that an opinion is not a fact.

    Imagine making politics your entire personality.
  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 32,756
    Viking64 wrote: »
    mhardy6647 wrote: »
    We are fortunate to have Dartmouth Hitchcock (hospital & school of medicine) close by, but their resources are finite.

    I worked on a movie there. :o

    The 'new' one on 120 or the old hospital in the center of town? I don't know how long you've been "up here" (at least in terms of your day job) :|
  • Selling volume on the DOW is already half the daily average volume in the first hour of trading. This could be the biggest down day of late yet.
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    Other; M10 series II, M7C's, Hafler XL600 amp, RB-980BX, Parasound HCA-1500 amp , P5 preamp, all in storage. All vintage Polk have had crossover rebuilds and tweeter upgrades.

    The best way to predict the future is to invent it.

    It is imperative that we recognize that an opinion is not a fact.

    Imagine making politics your entire personality.
  • BlueFox
    BlueFox Posts: 15,251
    I suspect this is nothing so far. Wait until the virus breaks out in this country. Then we will really see some declines. I am so glad I got out of the market right before this started. It took me 70 years, but I finally did something right with money. :)
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  • Viking64
    Viking64 Posts: 6,583
    mhardy6647 wrote: »
    The 'new' one on 120 or the old hospital in the center of town? I don't know how long you've been "up here" (at least in terms of your day job) :|

    It was high on a hill and surrounded by woods, so not in the center of town. It was shot in 1996.
  • kevhed72
    kevhed72 Posts: 4,926
    There are some long term stock deals out there....so the question is, do we do down further tomorrow as traders try to bail out before the weekend?
  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,853
    A cautious note for investors:

    Goldman Warns Customers
    Alea jacta est!
  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,853
    Better news from Wednesday:

    Apple Reopens 29 of 42 Stores in China

    And just today:

    Starbucks Reopens Most Stores in China

    If China is already showing signs of getting back to normal, despite 78,500 cases (33K of which have recovered), then even if cases in the U.S. rise to 600 or 6,000 (or worse), then it may not have as big an impact as feared.
    Alea jacta est!
  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,853
    P.S. From the Goldman article, they still expect the S&P to return to 3,400 by year end.
    Alea jacta est!
  • Kex wrote: »
    P.S. From the Goldman article, they still expect the S&P to return to 3,400 by year end.

    Well the FED will step back in full force into the repo market and there will interest rate cuts (who does that in the greatest economy ever) I suspect we might even see 30,000 on the DOW, a blow off top before the implosion. I won't be in this market come 2021 no matter who or what is in office.

    2% or less GDP for 2020, 1T in debt for 2020 and beyond. Remember when debt mattered I do, it was anytime before 2017.
    2 channel: Anthem 225 Integrated amp; Parasound Ztuner; TechnicsTT SL1350; Vincent PHO-8 phono pre; Marantz CD6005 spinner; Polk SDA2BTL's; LAT International speaker cables, ZU Mission IC's and power cables all into a PS Audio Dectet Power center.

    Other; M10 series II, M7C's, Hafler XL600 amp, RB-980BX, Parasound HCA-1500 amp , P5 preamp, all in storage. All vintage Polk have had crossover rebuilds and tweeter upgrades.

    The best way to predict the future is to invent it.

    It is imperative that we recognize that an opinion is not a fact.

    Imagine making politics your entire personality.
  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 32,756
    I think they moved to the Lebanon site (just a wee bit off 120) ca. 1993. It is a very nice campus; nice hospital, in fact.
  • Viking64
    Viking64 Posts: 6,583
    edited February 2020
    mhardy6647 wrote: »
    I think they moved to the Lebanon site (just a wee bit off 120) ca. 1993. It is a very nice campus; nice hospital, in fact.

    Alright, now I have to ask you: Have you ever heard of Lander's Restaurant? I know it is before your time there, but it was quite famous back in the 60s/70s.

    Circa 1970, my brothers and I were obsessed with the idea of eating there because they had "Shish Kebob". HAHAHAHA

    z4l86i0mij9s.jpg

    Fancy then/now image:

    ywds8p45wug4.jpg


    And keeping on topic: I believe no one ever caught the West Nile Corona Virus SARS Bird Flu, or even the NH is #1 Breathe Free Or Die Old Man on the Mountain Bubonic Chronic Flu in that restaurant. :)
  • xschop
    xschop Posts: 4,483
    Only stocks soaring are Gilead and Moderna. So predictable.
    Don't take experimental gene therapies from known eugenicists.
  • xschop
    xschop Posts: 4,483
    Milito wrote: »
    Coronavirus infects woman in Japan for the second time, a first in the country.

    https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-infects-woman-in-japan-for-the-second-time-a-first-in-the-country

    A first, as this one is a chimera. There are reports inside China of this very phenomenon happening as we speak.
    Don't take experimental gene therapies from known eugenicists.
  • BlueFox
    BlueFox Posts: 15,251
    The virus is thought to be like the cold. You can catch it over and over. This is scary since it has the ability to kill.
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  • Viking64
    Viking64 Posts: 6,583
    xschop wrote: »
    Moderna.

    That's what they call the Ferrari 360 in England.

    2zc6fzjyueyb.jpg
  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,853
    Still, the number of new cases in China over the last two days are fewer than the rest of the world.

    But then NYC have stated that the test kits they have received from CDC are not reliable, so they need new test kits. If that’s true, the number of cases identified in some parts of the U.S. could be artificially low, because of an inability to test reliably.
    Alea jacta est!
  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 32,756
    edited February 2020
    Viking64 wrote: »
    ...

    And keeping on topic: I believe no one ever caught the West Nile Corona Virus SARS Bird Flu, or even the NH is #1 Breathe Free Or Die Old Man on the Mountain Bubonic Chronic Flu in that restaurant. :)
    Yes I remember Landers, Owl's Nest, and Jesse's. The latter is still with us, and still not bad.
    Maybe I'll start an Upper Valley thread and see who/what turns up.

    Bad day on Wall Street again today, to close on topic :)


  • Polkitup2
    Polkitup2 Posts: 1,614
    kevhed72 wrote: »
    There are some long term stock deals out there....so the question is, do we do down further tomorrow as traders try to bail out before the weekend?

    It may drop more tomorrow, but a year from now it will be back to where it was or higher so I am buying...
  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,853
    Regarding the market’s precipitous drop this week:
    • Now the fastest 10% drop in history, ever.
    • Two of the ten fastest 10% drops in history occurred in February and November of 2018 (those were related to tariffs and trade).
    • Prior to 2018, the most recent of the fastest 10% drops in history occurred in November of 2007, thirteen years ago.
    Alea jacta est!
  • xschop
    xschop Posts: 4,483
    edited February 2020
    Kex wrote: »
    Still, the number of new cases in China over the last two days are fewer than the rest of the world.

    But then NYC have stated that the test kits they have received from CDC are not reliable, so they need new test kits. If that’s true, the number of cases identified in some parts of the U.S. could be artificially low, because of an inability to test reliably.

    False positives or false negatives. A conundrum.

    The real #s telling the truth are from S. Korea. Surely they're not Over-reporting. Someone's surely Under-reporting.
    Don't take experimental gene therapies from known eugenicists.
  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,853
    Reading This report from Reuters, the number of cases in the U.S. is practically impossible to know. If accurate, only 500 cases had been tested as of February 23, and access to test kits remains woefully limited.
    Alea jacta est!
This discussion has been closed.