Housing market's gonna crash

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  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 18,548
    edited August 2022
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    xschop wrote: »
    Stachybotris?

    Along with other varieties. A toxic mishmash of everything not healthy, really. It was absolutely disgusting. Apparently the home was flooding/constantly leaking with the A/C set on 63 since early April of this year. Sad thing, is this was a nice home 2 years ago. The leak (one of them) went from the attic, down 2 floors to the main floor. Estimated cost of mold abatement/rehab is at $105K for a home that, after completed, will only be worth $175K.

    Back to the topic of the thread. I keep seeing article after article about the housing market crashing but on the flip side, I also see the same for a housing rebound and for housing to drop a little bit in the short term but retain most of the inflated value we have all seen over the course of the past few years.

    What that tells me is that no one knows exactly what in the heck is going to happen (even the "experts" contradict themselves. I personally think it will crash but I do not think it will be as severe as it was in '07/'08. That said, availability will start going up with foreclosures being right around the corner for many.

    And then throw in continuing higher interest rates? Availability shouldn't be an issue. Affordability will be for those who want to move or for first time buyers.

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • sucks2beme
    sucks2beme Posts: 5,571
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    If the average family can't afford the average home, trouble.
    Some markets are already there with the interest hikes.
    And a lot of cities are cashing in on higher appraisals.
    Tax hikes are at record levels in many places.
    That one two punch is going to hit some people very hard.


    "The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg." --Thomas Jefferson
  • aprazer402
    aprazer402 Posts: 3,120
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    yt6eobnkpdku.jpg

    Back in 2016 I found this assortment of chemicals in a heated detached garage that was partitioned into three rooms, a kitchen and a room for heating reptiles, plus parking for two vehicles. The house was a foreclosure, its finished basement had black mold everywhere. Are these common ingredients for making something evil?

    I have photos of hundreds of homes with very bad mold. Some had mold hanging down from the ceiling like stalactites in spirals 3"-4" diameter, 4-6 ft long in a variety of colors, reds and greens mostly.
  • xschop
    xschop Posts: 4,795
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    I remember the '08 crash foreclosure story where the guy let loose a couple hundred pound pigs in the property as a "gift" to the bank.
    Don't take experimental gene therapies from known eugenicists.
  • Irish83
    Irish83 Posts: 5
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    The market is certainly cooling off and all indicators show we heading for a crash. I agree with previous comments that investment groups are really driving prices up on rental properties which gives the impression that market will remain high. Look at the current houses on the market (DOM), Avg. purchase price, it only seems to get higher, which means that homes are selling as fast and not getting big bucks from the housing boom.
    Save your money and use any extra to pay down your principal balance.
  • polrbehr
    polrbehr Posts: 2,826
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    According to Zillow (appropriate snicker here), my home has risen in value by 1.3% in the last 30 days, and has steadily done so for quite some time save for a sharp decline in Sept 2020 which saw it drop to just over $400k. But it rose almost immediately after that and has not stopped since.
    I understand this is not an indication of the issues nationwide, nor do I really care since this is my end-game home and will likely be my daughters' one day. Even so, I am still waiting for the correction to happen and wonder how bad it will drop the value.
    So, are you willing to put forth a little effort or are you happy sitting in your skeptical poo pile?


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  • Emlyn
    Emlyn Posts: 4,415
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    Commercial real estate is more likely to have major problems than residential. Many companies and the people who work for them have figured out they don't need to have people sitting in office buildings to work anymore. Supply and demand. Housing demand is still high and unlike in some countries the US population is forecast to grow a lot. The problem I still see in my area is too few places on the market and too few being built too slowly.
  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 18,548
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    New housing in my area is doing the same thing it did during the last bru-haha. Builders are wrapping up what they are building now or just leaving the site as-is.

    Cleared neighborhoods with underground infrastructure are there but no recent activity at all. The last time this happened, it took about 8 years for anyone to start resuming construction.

    I am PM'ing a new construction house that was estimated to take 4 months to complete. Because of supply issues, we are now 2 months into it and a month behind. There is nothing anyone (at our level) can do about it either. Materials to build are scarce right now.

    Case in point, we still have yet to find a concrete drain pipe for the end of the drive. We temporarily put in a steel one and (no surprise here) the HOA instantaneously sent us a love letter, stating that it had to be concrete. Yeah, no sheet, Sherlock! That's what was spec'd but it is unobtainable right now and production for more will not start for another 6 months.

    The homeowners are completely aware that there will be changes with the price and what they want. We just found out that their shingle selection isn't available anymore (sold out) and no word yet on when production will resume.

    Makes things frustrating for everyone.

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • sucks2beme
    sucks2beme Posts: 5,571
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    No price drop here. But houses are taking a bit longer to sell.
    Around Dallas Ft Worth builders are back to incentives to
    move inventory. That's a sure sign of the market slow down.
    My wife is still on builder's mailing lists from her real estate
    career in DFW.
    "The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg." --Thomas Jefferson
  • GlennDog
    GlennDog Posts: 3,105
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    treitz3 wrote: »
    new construction that was estimated to take 4 months to complete. Because of supply issues, we are now 2 months into it and a month behind. There is nothing anyone (at our level) can do about it either. Materials to build are scarce right now.

    Makes things frustrating for everyone.

    Brother, this takes frustrating to a whole new level.

    Unfortunately, the house next-door was sold to a **** bag six years ago. The house sat vacant for a couple years till he could find somebody to rent it out to for top dollar. He’s a foreigner and it appears he only uses foreign help… All of which are unskilled, or lacking skills and roll the way they did from whence they came.

    One of his “contractors”… Did this…
    hitmnsv2xjqn.png
    lb4bhspfoafy.png


    MF’r wouldn’t make it like-new ... and when he did send somebody out ...4 months later, it was an elderly cancer patient/surviver and some snot nose teenager, still wet behind the ears

    March 1 of last year they pushed over the ranch and started cobbling together a McMansion.
    I’m pretty sure the building company‘s name is called Three Stooges Construction Co.

    General lumber and roof trusses have sat in the yard for months on end. Literally, one web of one of the trusses was so black with mold you could spot it from 1000 feet.

    I’ve got a short video of them trying to lift a wall… then it starts to buckle/fold in half and they have to lower it and start again

    Needless to say, construction has halted, who knows why. This **** is tight AF with a buck. I don’t know if he won’t open up his wallet or he’s burned too many bridges and there’re liens up the butt on his property. Different contractors” constantly.

    One guy showed up on Sunday Fourth of July weekend 5 pm… Another showed up on July 4 about the same time of day. They all show up for a couple of hours, kick up some dust, make a lot of noise and leave in short order


    Example of unsatisfied tree removal service
    f0bjq78c3fu1.png

    Currently, this is the view from GlennDog Estates for the last several months
    6gtir3s1kml7.jpeg
    gfaug94czqai.jpeg

    Here I am 18 months later . . .

    Sorry for the derail . . . . But I’m spitting 16D nails!





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  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 18,548
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    Wow. He has lost every bit of profit with just the construction mortgage after 18 months. So sorry this has to happen right next to you. He still has a LONG way to go too.

    Gotta admit though, that, "Pay your bills" sign did crack me up.

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • F1nut
    F1nut Posts: 49,993
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    Kex wrote: »
    Troll.

    Indeed you are.
    Political Correctness'.........defined

    "A doctrine fostered by a delusional, illogical minority and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a t-u-r-d by the clean end."


    President of Club Polk

  • GlennDog
    GlennDog Posts: 3,105
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    Hope to connect with y’all at Troy’s . . . I mean TLWs home
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    Pre Cary SLP-05
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  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 18,548
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    SAAaaaaaWEEEET!!! B)

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • Jstas
    Jstas Posts: 14,743
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    Expert Moron Extraordinaire

    You're just jealous 'cause the voices don't talk to you!
  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 33,272
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    Kind of off topic :# but the title of this thread makes me think of The Far Side every time I see it reappear on the "recent messages" list.
    tyqzy12v64b4.png

  • audioluvr
    audioluvr Posts: 5,483
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  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 18,548
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    Talking about the housing market is part of the American dream. Political affiliation plays NO part in this. Only the policies of those in charge do.

    Your tactic, as I see it, is to get this thread shut down.

    This tactic will not achieve its goal, unless a moderator does not see your attempts to shut it down for what it is. This is the end result, the end of the story.

    The plain fact of the matter is that housing is vaguely important to many in this country. Whetr or not you are an American citizen or even if you are....let;s just say that you aren't "legal". People still need housing and the current trend isn't looking so hot right now.

    I have no beef with you. In fact, I have no beef with anyone, especially after seeing so many of my friends and their animals dying over the course of the last week. With that said, I do have a problem with your last post.

    You edited it to include me after my last post. You dropped my number within my moniker (my guess is to insult me). This is trolling at it's finest. Why people would do this escapes me but it is what it is. Some people just....well, I'll leave that alone.

    You are still more than welcome at Polkfest this year and if so? I look forward to meeting you.

    With that said? Your post was......well, a "tad" bit hypocritical. To say the least.

    Tom

    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • nooshinjohn
    nooshinjohn Posts: 25,213
    edited September 2022
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    @anonymouse... saying that we don't respect diversity is a cop out and a cover for your own lack of acceptance of the views of others. What you are attempting to do is create your own echo chamber in which the thoughts and beliefs you and your comrades find agreeable are the only ones allowed to be expressed. I for one, will never bend or compromise my beliefs to appease anyone. I also do not expect or insist that you do. Our love for all things audio brought us all together, but it is the family atmosphere and at times lively discourse that made this place thrive.

    You and people like you, those that are of a more coddled state of mind, that find others with whom you disagree and therefore must try to silence at all costs, that have driven away good members and continue to bring the forum down.

    I personally do not want you gone, or anyone else for that matter, but I would like you to check in the mirror and see the true reflection of intolerance.
    The Gear... Carver "Statement" Mono-blocks, Mcintosh C2300 Arcam AVR20, Oppo UDP-203 4K Blu-ray player, Sony XBR70x850B 4k, Polk Audio Legend L800 with height modules, L400 Center Channel Polk audio AB800 "in-wall" surrounds. Marantz MM7025 stereo amp. Simaudio Moon 680d DSD

    “When once a Republic is corrupted, there is no possibility of remedying any of the growing evils but by removing the corruption and restoring its lost principles; every other correction is either useless or a new evil.”— Thomas Jefferson
  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 18,548
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    anonymouse wrote: »
    I received a private message from Sound United about their desire to keep this forum productive, welcoming, friendly and apolitical. @Keiko @audioluvr @txcoastal1@treitz3 keep that in mind. I will not be silent as right wingers try their usual tactics to dominate this forum. But I promise you, if you keep your wounded grievance politics off this forum and keep to audio and apolitical topics, I will respect you, Right now, you are skating on thin ice. You have been notified!

    FWIW, in all of my years (close to decades here) at Club Polk? I have been notified only one time of being out of line with regards to the rules. One time. That's it....and I honestly earned that warning.

    Domination of a forum is the absolute LAST thing on my mind and that's actually laughable with ANY of the founding members, long standing members or (I would argue) many of the newer members of this forum.

    Geeez, really? If any of us dominated? We wouldn't learn a damned thing about audio. We would be like 1/2 the other blah forums out there learning nothing but..... Get real, dude.

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 18,548
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    anonymouse wrote: »
    To keep my viewpoints in one place, I am editing this post to respond to @treitz3's post below.

    @treitz3 feels I edit my posts to troll him. I'm sorry he feels this way. I just call out bad behavior when I see it and to not waste your time. I agree that the housing market is part of the American dream. Where this thread drifts off into la la land is in the innuendo - the typical grievance and wounds blaming gubment - which is just an inch away from blaming one gubment or another. I am not trying to insult @treitz2 or @treitz3;

    I am calling out the people who are creating a hostile environment as I see them. As I said, if SoundUnited decides I do not belong here, so be it. I've been here a decade, and I love Polk and value this forum. It saddens me that less than 10 people have turned this place into a political mess.

    Drop it while you are behind. Take a step back. Take a look at the forest through the trees.

    It may make a world of difference. Hinting toward policy or Gub'ment is one thing. Outright talking about blatent politics is another and against Club Polk Rules. My point was that if you are to call out political talk and in the same post? Call members of this forum, "Right Wingers"?

    That is the very definition of hypocrisy.

    For the record, I have NO/ZERO affiliation. I rely on common sense and what is good for this country, period. End of story. Capiche?

    Tom



    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 18,548
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    @anonymouse - Unless you are rskvan or whatever that asshat's moniker was? You are more than welcome to come to Polkfest. People are MUCH different in person than they are online.

    With that said, I do believe that this thread has derailed enough. Time to get back on track.

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • txcoastal1
    txcoastal1 Posts: 13,145
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    anonymouse wrote: »
    I received a private message from Sound United about their desire to keep this forum productive, welcoming, friendly and apolitical. @Keiko @audioluvr @txcoastal1@treitz3 keep that in mind. I will not be silent as right wingers try their usual tactics to dominate this forum. But I promise you, if you keep your wounded grievance politics off this forum and keep to audio and apolitical topics, I will respect you, Right now, you are skating on thin ice. You have been notified!

    Please post one attack from me. I post from govt type websites with factual data. Your post never contain any substance other than attacks …no data just deflection like your comment above

    You cannot ever stay on topic
    I never want to silence anyone. Please post some data so we can discuss or don’t post anything at all
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  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 18,548
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    I now see that his post has been edited yet again. And again. And again.

    If you are going to speak? Speak your mind in a "normal" conversation. Normal people will not go back and read a post that was written 7 posts ago.

    Be a man. Speak your mind. Quit the editing as posts come in.

    Now, can we kindly get back to the topic of the OP, or are we to deflect and get the thread shut down (which is the original intention of the deflection to begin with?)

    Pay attention folks....this should be obvious by now.

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • F1nut
    F1nut Posts: 49,993
    edited September 2022
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    Mouse reported for trolling yet AGAIN!!!

    Here's a tip for you Mouse, instead of trolling threads and causing strife if a post bothers you just report it and let the mod decide what to do.
    Political Correctness'.........defined

    "A doctrine fostered by a delusional, illogical minority and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a t-u-r-d by the clean end."


    President of Club Polk

  • nooshinjohn
    nooshinjohn Posts: 25,213
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    anonymouse wrote: »
    I am calling out the people who are creating a hostile environment.


    The only person attacking others…. The only person being hostile here is you. Unfortunate that you cannot see that.
    The Gear... Carver "Statement" Mono-blocks, Mcintosh C2300 Arcam AVR20, Oppo UDP-203 4K Blu-ray player, Sony XBR70x850B 4k, Polk Audio Legend L800 with height modules, L400 Center Channel Polk audio AB800 "in-wall" surrounds. Marantz MM7025 stereo amp. Simaudio Moon 680d DSD

    “When once a Republic is corrupted, there is no possibility of remedying any of the growing evils but by removing the corruption and restoring its lost principles; every other correction is either useless or a new evil.”— Thomas Jefferson
  • daddyjt
    daddyjt Posts: 2,364
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    anonymouse wrote: »
    Here's the thing. What makes us special is our diversity of viewpoints and the fact that when all is said and done, we respect each other. @treitz3 and @nooshinjohn with a handful of others have created a hostile environment that does not respect our diversity. You can report me... and honestly, if SoundUnited decides I do not belong here, they can boot me out, and you can scream into your own echo chamber.

    What makes us special is our love for all things audio - by all your rants about your random grievances and about the state of progress and the state of country - you have alienated a bunch of people who do not share your views and therefore feel unwelcome here. I believe this is on you. Report me all you like. The problem and issue is you.

    To keep my viewpoints in one place, I am editing this post to respond to @treitz3's and @nooshinjohn below. @treitz3 feels I edit my posts to troll him. I'm sorry he feels this way: I just call out bad behavior when I see it and to not waste your (the reader's) time.

    I agree that the housing market is part of the American dream. Where this thread drifts off into hallucination land is in the innuendo - the typical grievance and wounds blaming gubment - which is just an inch away from blaming one gubment or another. I am not trying to insult @treitz2 or @treitz. @treitz3,

    Then drifts into a seemilngly unhinged rant using words like "laughable" and invoking themes like "founding members" like that conveys some divine privilege. Could he be trying to assert moral superiority? He should reflect on his language and his behavior. Then, he picks fault with my calling out the "right wingers". To those of us who have been following the toilet flush of the last few threads, it is painfully obvious who is on what side of the aisle. Sadly, that has shown up here. Now, @treitz3 and @nooshinjohn feel they have scored some kind of win by my use of the phrase "right winger" to reflect the obvious. We have our views, the higher ground is not stating those views here... something that @treitz3 and @nooshinjohn do not seem to respect.

    @nooshinjohn calls my posts a cop out. He said that I do not respect others views. Look, this is an audio forum. If your posterior hurts because of the price of gas or because you feel the economy is crashing, that's certainly a grievance you can talk about on your favorite political forum which you can pick on the left or right.

    This place is for our common interest which is audio. Keep it that way! Check yourself when you find the need to blame gubment on here. It may even be therapeutic to let go of your anger issues. Try it! It jiust might add a few years to your life. Thank me later.

    I am calling out the people who are creating a hostile environment.

    As I said, if SoundUnited decides I do not belong here, so be it. I've been here a decade, and I love Polk and value this forum. It saddens me that less than 10 people have turned this place into a political mess.

    Has it ever occurred to you that maybe, just maybe, it’s NOT everyone else? That maybe it’s just YOU?

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  • Toolfan66
    Toolfan66 Posts: 17,027
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    anonymouse wrote: »
    I received a private message from Sound United about their desire to keep this forum productive, welcoming, friendly and apolitical. @Keiko @audioluvr @txcoastal1@treitz3 keep that in mind. I will not be silent as right wingers try their usual tactics to dominate this forum. But I promise you, if you keep your wounded grievance politics off this forum and keep to audio and apolitical topics, I will respect you, Right now, you are skating on thin ice. You have been notified!

    I see that speech last night did exactly what it was intended to do..

    Reported…

  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 18,548
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    Before mouse started editing, I was mentioned ZERO times. Not once, nodda.

    I see that he edited it 6 times as the posts came in, thinking no one would notice. 6 times, I am now mentioned.

    Funny how that happened.

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~