Housing market's gonna crash

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  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 17,727
    edited August 2022
    xschop wrote: »
    Stachybotris?

    Along with other varieties. A toxic mishmash of everything not healthy, really. It was absolutely disgusting. Apparently the home was flooding/constantly leaking with the A/C set on 63 since early April of this year. Sad thing, is this was a nice home 2 years ago. The leak (one of them) went from the attic, down 2 floors to the main floor. Estimated cost of mold abatement/rehab is at $105K for a home that, after completed, will only be worth $175K.

    Back to the topic of the thread. I keep seeing article after article about the housing market crashing but on the flip side, I also see the same for a housing rebound and for housing to drop a little bit in the short term but retain most of the inflated value we have all seen over the course of the past few years.

    What that tells me is that no one knows exactly what in the heck is going to happen (even the "experts" contradict themselves. I personally think it will crash but I do not think it will be as severe as it was in '07/'08. That said, availability will start going up with foreclosures being right around the corner for many.

    And then throw in continuing higher interest rates? Availability shouldn't be an issue. Affordability will be for those who want to move or for first time buyers.

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • sucks2beme
    sucks2beme Posts: 5,534
    If the average family can't afford the average home, trouble.
    Some markets are already there with the interest hikes.
    And a lot of cities are cashing in on higher appraisals.
    Tax hikes are at record levels in many places.
    That one two punch is going to hit some people very hard.


    "The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg." --Thomas Jefferson
  • aprazer402
    aprazer402 Posts: 2,989
    yt6eobnkpdku.jpg

    Back in 2016 I found this assortment of chemicals in a heated detached garage that was partitioned into three rooms, a kitchen and a room for heating reptiles, plus parking for two vehicles. The house was a foreclosure, its finished basement had black mold everywhere. Are these common ingredients for making something evil?

    I have photos of hundreds of homes with very bad mold. Some had mold hanging down from the ceiling like stalactites in spirals 3"-4" diameter, 4-6 ft long in a variety of colors, reds and greens mostly.
  • xschop
    xschop Posts: 4,203
    I remember the '08 crash foreclosure story where the guy let loose a couple hundred pound pigs in the property as a "gift" to the bank.
    Don't take experimental gene therapies from known eugenicists.
  • Irish83
    Irish83 Posts: 5
    The market is certainly cooling off and all indicators show we heading for a crash. I agree with previous comments that investment groups are really driving prices up on rental properties which gives the impression that market will remain high. Look at the current houses on the market (DOM), Avg. purchase price, it only seems to get higher, which means that homes are selling as fast and not getting big bucks from the housing boom.
    Save your money and use any extra to pay down your principal balance.
  • polrbehr
    polrbehr Posts: 2,805
    According to Zillow (appropriate snicker here), my home has risen in value by 1.3% in the last 30 days, and has steadily done so for quite some time save for a sharp decline in Sept 2020 which saw it drop to just over $400k. But it rose almost immediately after that and has not stopped since.
    I understand this is not an indication of the issues nationwide, nor do I really care since this is my end-game home and will likely be my daughters' one day. Even so, I am still waiting for the correction to happen and wonder how bad it will drop the value.
    So, are you willing to put forth a little effort or are you happy sitting in your skeptical poo pile?


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  • Emlyn
    Emlyn Posts: 4,243
    Commercial real estate is more likely to have major problems than residential. Many companies and the people who work for them have figured out they don't need to have people sitting in office buildings to work anymore. Supply and demand. Housing demand is still high and unlike in some countries the US population is forecast to grow a lot. The problem I still see in my area is too few places on the market and too few being built too slowly.
  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 17,727
    New housing in my area is doing the same thing it did during the last bru-haha. Builders are wrapping up what they are building now or just leaving the site as-is.

    Cleared neighborhoods with underground infrastructure are there but no recent activity at all. The last time this happened, it took about 8 years for anyone to start resuming construction.

    I am PM'ing a new construction house that was estimated to take 4 months to complete. Because of supply issues, we are now 2 months into it and a month behind. There is nothing anyone (at our level) can do about it either. Materials to build are scarce right now.

    Case in point, we still have yet to find a concrete drain pipe for the end of the drive. We temporarily put in a steel one and (no surprise here) the HOA instantaneously sent us a love letter, stating that it had to be concrete. Yeah, no sheet, Sherlock! That's what was spec'd but it is unobtainable right now and production for more will not start for another 6 months.

    The homeowners are completely aware that there will be changes with the price and what they want. We just found out that their shingle selection isn't available anymore (sold out) and no word yet on when production will resume.

    Makes things frustrating for everyone.

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • sucks2beme
    sucks2beme Posts: 5,534
    No price drop here. But houses are taking a bit longer to sell.
    Around Dallas Ft Worth builders are back to incentives to
    move inventory. That's a sure sign of the market slow down.
    My wife is still on builder's mailing lists from her real estate
    career in DFW.
    "The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg." --Thomas Jefferson
  • GlennDog
    GlennDog Posts: 3,013
    treitz3 wrote: »
    new construction that was estimated to take 4 months to complete. Because of supply issues, we are now 2 months into it and a month behind. There is nothing anyone (at our level) can do about it either. Materials to build are scarce right now.

    Makes things frustrating for everyone.

    Brother, this takes frustrating to a whole new level.

    Unfortunately, the house next-door was sold to a **** bag six years ago. The house sat vacant for a couple years till he could find somebody to rent it out to for top dollar. He’s a foreigner and it appears he only uses foreign help… All of which are unskilled, or lacking skills and roll the way they did from whence they came.

    One of his “contractors”… Did this…
    hitmnsv2xjqn.png
    lb4bhspfoafy.png


    MF’r wouldn’t make it like-new ... and when he did send somebody out ...4 months later, it was an elderly cancer patient/surviver and some snot nose teenager, still wet behind the ears

    March 1 of last year they pushed over the ranch and started cobbling together a McMansion.
    I’m pretty sure the building company‘s name is called Three Stooges Construction Co.

    General lumber and roof trusses have sat in the yard for months on end. Literally, one web of one of the trusses was so black with mold you could spot it from 1000 feet.

    I’ve got a short video of them trying to lift a wall… then it starts to buckle/fold in half and they have to lower it and start again

    Needless to say, construction has halted, who knows why. This **** is tight AF with a buck. I don’t know if he won’t open up his wallet or he’s burned too many bridges and there’re liens up the butt on his property. Different contractors” constantly.

    One guy showed up on Sunday Fourth of July weekend 5 pm… Another showed up on July 4 about the same time of day. They all show up for a couple of hours, kick up some dust, make a lot of noise and leave in short order


    Example of unsatisfied tree removal service
    f0bjq78c3fu1.png

    Currently, this is the view from GlennDog Estates for the last several months
    6gtir3s1kml7.jpeg
    gfaug94czqai.jpeg

    Here I am 18 months later . . .

    Sorry for the derail . . . . But I’m spitting 16D nails!





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  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 17,727
    Wow. He has lost every bit of profit with just the construction mortgage after 18 months. So sorry this has to happen right next to you. He still has a LONG way to go too.

    Gotta admit though, that, "Pay your bills" sign did crack me up.

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • F1nut
    F1nut Posts: 49,206
    Kex wrote: »
    Troll.

    Indeed you are.
    Political Correctness'.........defined

    "A doctrine fostered by a delusional, illogical minority and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a t-u-r-d by the clean end."


    President of Club Polk

  • GlennDog
    GlennDog Posts: 3,013
    Hope to connect with y’all at Troy’s . . . I mean TLWs home
    AC Regenerator PS Audio PerfectWave Power Plant 10
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    Pre Cary SLP-05
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  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 17,727
    SAAaaaaaWEEEET!!! B)

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • Jstas
    Jstas Posts: 14,677
    Expert Moron Extraordinaire

    You're just jealous 'cause the voices don't talk to you!
  • audioluvr
    audioluvr Posts: 5,190
    I want an electric car! Ok, actually a golf cart but hey!
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  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 17,727
    Talking about the housing market is part of the American dream. Political affiliation plays NO part in this. Only the policies of those in charge do.

    Your tactic, as I see it, is to get this thread shut down.

    This tactic will not achieve its goal, unless a moderator does not see your attempts to shut it down for what it is. This is the end result, the end of the story.

    The plain fact of the matter is that housing is vaguely important to many in this country. Whetr or not you are an American citizen or even if you are....let;s just say that you aren't "legal". People still need housing and the current trend isn't looking so hot right now.

    I have no beef with you. In fact, I have no beef with anyone, especially after seeing so many of my friends and their animals dying over the course of the last week. With that said, I do have a problem with your last post.

    You edited it to include me after my last post. You dropped my number within my moniker (my guess is to insult me). This is trolling at it's finest. Why people would do this escapes me but it is what it is. Some people just....well, I'll leave that alone.

    You are still more than welcome at Polkfest this year and if so? I look forward to meeting you.

    With that said? Your post was......well, a "tad" bit hypocritical. To say the least.

    Tom

    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • nooshinjohn
    nooshinjohn Posts: 24,716
    edited September 2022
    @anonymouse... saying that we don't respect diversity is a cop out and a cover for your own lack of acceptance of the views of others. What you are attempting to do is create your own echo chamber in which the thoughts and beliefs you and your comrades find agreeable are the only ones allowed to be expressed. I for one, will never bend or compromise my beliefs to appease anyone. I also do not expect or insist that you do. Our love for all things audio brought us all together, but it is the family atmosphere and at times lively discourse that made this place thrive.

    You and people like you, those that are of a more coddled state of mind, that find others with whom you disagree and therefore must try to silence at all costs, that have driven away good members and continue to bring the forum down.

    I personally do not want you gone, or anyone else for that matter, but I would like you to check in the mirror and see the true reflection of intolerance.
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  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 17,727
    anonymouse wrote: »
    I received a private message from Sound United about their desire to keep this forum productive, welcoming, friendly and apolitical. @Keiko @audioluvr @txcoastal1@treitz3 keep that in mind. I will not be silent as right wingers try their usual tactics to dominate this forum. But I promise you, if you keep your wounded grievance politics off this forum and keep to audio and apolitical topics, I will respect you, Right now, you are skating on thin ice. You have been notified!

    FWIW, in all of my years (close to decades here) at Club Polk? I have been notified only one time of being out of line with regards to the rules. One time. That's it....and I honestly earned that warning.

    Domination of a forum is the absolute LAST thing on my mind and that's actually laughable with ANY of the founding members, long standing members or (I would argue) many of the newer members of this forum.

    Geeez, really? If any of us dominated? We wouldn't learn a damned thing about audio. We would be like 1/2 the other blah forums out there learning nothing but..... Get real, dude.

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 17,727
    @anonymouse - Unless you are rskvan or whatever that asshat's moniker was? You are more than welcome to come to Polkfest. People are MUCH different in person than they are online.

    With that said, I do believe that this thread has derailed enough. Time to get back on track.

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 17,727
    I now see that his post has been edited yet again. And again. And again.

    If you are going to speak? Speak your mind in a "normal" conversation. Normal people will not go back and read a post that was written 7 posts ago.

    Be a man. Speak your mind. Quit the editing as posts come in.

    Now, can we kindly get back to the topic of the OP, or are we to deflect and get the thread shut down (which is the original intention of the deflection to begin with?)

    Pay attention folks....this should be obvious by now.

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~
  • F1nut
    F1nut Posts: 49,206
    edited September 2022
    Mouse reported for trolling yet AGAIN!!!

    Here's a tip for you Mouse, instead of trolling threads and causing strife if a post bothers you just report it and let the mod decide what to do.
    Political Correctness'.........defined

    "A doctrine fostered by a delusional, illogical minority and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a t-u-r-d by the clean end."


    President of Club Polk

  • Toolfan66
    Toolfan66 Posts: 16,258
    anonymouse wrote: »
    I received a private message from Sound United about their desire to keep this forum productive, welcoming, friendly and apolitical. @Keiko @audioluvr @txcoastal1@treitz3 keep that in mind. I will not be silent as right wingers try their usual tactics to dominate this forum. But I promise you, if you keep your wounded grievance politics off this forum and keep to audio and apolitical topics, I will respect you, Right now, you are skating on thin ice. You have been notified!

    I see that speech last night did exactly what it was intended to do..

    Reported…

  • treitz3
    treitz3 Posts: 17,727
    Before mouse started editing, I was mentioned ZERO times. Not once, nodda.

    I see that he edited it 6 times as the posts came in, thinking no one would notice. 6 times, I am now mentioned.

    Funny how that happened.

    Tom
    ~ In search of accurate reproduction of music. Real sound is my reference and while perfection may not be attainable? If I chase it, I might just catch excellence. ~