Seems like the Bear Market has begun?

Joey_V

Seems like this is a legitimate case for a stock market bear market. Indicators are bad, multiple sectors are in the red.

I have not seen anything like this since 2008.

This is no bueno.

Kinda makes me wonder I bought the Boulder 2 months ago... ayiyi.....

steveinaz

Yeah, not encouraging at all and I don't think realestate is gonna do much of anything either for quite a long time. I'm just gonna hunker down and ride it out.

Joey_V

steveinaz wrote: »

Yeah, not encouraging at all and I don't think realestate is gonna do much of anything either for quite a long time. I'm just gonna hunker down and ride it out.

I have gone conservative since last week after losing 5 figures.

My 401k Used to be 95% stocks...

Now I am about 40% bonds and rest in stocks, but also into dividend stocks. Down to 5% international too.

Once the market hits bottom or whatever seems low, I'm dumping every cent I have back in.

My other investment account is now in full bonds and money market. Zero stocks. Was told by my advisor that to expect that we do not engage the stock market for 2016.

All signs point to a bear market and a Dow hitting 11,500.

He said that and I was like adios. I'm not going to put myself through 12 months misery and end up losing half my net worth and waiting 7 years to make it back up. I would rather accept that this will be a bad year, reinvest when the market looks worse and ride it up.

Easy Runnin

I have gone conservative since last week after losing 5 figures.

My 401k Used to be 95% stocks...

Now I am about 40% bonds and rest in stocks, but also into dividend stocks. Down to 5% international too.

Once the market hits bottom or whatever seems low, I'm dumping every cent I have back in.


I'm not sure how good your crystal ball is , but historically this is not a very good idea:

1. Since 1995, six of the ten best days for the S&P 500 occurred within two weeks of the ten worst days.

2. Market timing is almost impossible to get right over the long run.

"Nobel laureate William Sharpe found that market timers must be right an incredible 82% of the time just to match the returns realized by buy-and-hold investors."

"A study by SEI Investments reviewed all the bear markets since World War II. According to the study, reported in The Wall Street Journal, stocks rose an average of 32.5% in the 12 months following the bear-market bottom. Yet, if you missed the bottom by just a week, that return fell to 24.3%. Waiting three months after the market turned cut your gain to less than 15%."

"Between 1986 and 2005, the S&P 500 compounded at an annual rate of return of 11.9% - even in the face of the market crash in 1987, two recessions, two wars, 9/11, the 2000's "tech-wreck," accounting scandals (i.e. Enron), and more. Due to market timing, the average investor's return during that time was only 3.9%."

3. This is because most of the gains come in the six months after a bear market. The market timer must get two decisions right…When to get out and when to get back in.

EndersShadow

@Joey_V

Instead of losing 5 figures in the stock market, just shoot 1 of those 5 my way ..... that will make you happy you didnt lose another 5, and me happy I just doubled my retirement savings lol....

tonyb

Every presidential election year seems to tank the markets. The exception here is debt, lots of it and world wide. The markets have been overblown for so long, a big correction was due anyway.

I said to cash out late last year, which I did, and hit the bottom when it happens. That bottom may not be seen for awhile though....maybe this time next year.

Any lay person knows, you can't keep borrowing money, loading up the credit card without a day of reckoning. They also know you can't keep printing money out of thin air for long, which we have been doing. These are tactics used to hide the real problems that exist that nobody wants to talk about or tackle.

Now, we will be back to the government picking the winners and losers like in '08-'09. You watch....banks will have to be recapitalized, insurance companies bailed out etc.....and the best part is, you get to foot the bill for a lot of it. Then the process will start all over again.

txcoastal1

We had this discussion in August and this was before oil was a another trigger...gonna be a bumpy ride

http://forum.polkaudio.com/discussion/169063/wow-bad-day-for-the-market/p4

txcoastal1 wrote: »

I see this more as a correction on our end. The big banks are still above their 52 week high.
Where the slam is coming from are the commodities. I by and sell copper as part of my business. Copper is a tell tale sign of where building and material lies through the world. Copper have been on a downfall for several months.

I did a serious market pull back in April and May using copper as a warning sign that China construction had come to halt and was over inflated and would soon cause a ripple effect.

txcoastal1 wrote: »

tonyb wrote: »

txcoastal1 wrote: »

I see this more as a correction on our end. The big banks are still above their 52 week high.
Where the slam is coming from are the commodities. I by and sell copper as part of my business. Copper is a tell tale sign of where building and material lies through the world. Copper have been on a downfall for several months.

I did a serious market pull back in April and May using copper as a warning sign that China construction had come to halt and was over inflated and would soon cause a ripple effect.

My question is.....are we not in the same boat ?

Absolutely, just not as bad as China, and not as bad as we were in 2008. Real estate and banks are leveled out. If they were not we would be in the same boat China is now....same as we were in 2008 but worse.

I still see the market being over inflated by 3000 pts or maybe a little more. Volatility will probably continue to trickle the DOW down till will reach that point, but again who the h-ell knows...just an assumption. Maybe the next 24months of volatility till after election.

tonyb

Thing is pal, there's been many "triggers" that the markets were just shrugging off. That's a sure sign the jig is up. Like seeing a sign that the bridge ahead is out, but you hit the gas.

Everybody is in debt up to their eyeballs, China, Russia, Europe, South America, U.S. The usual tactics of printing money or devaluing currency is causing ripple effects. Add to all that Opec's plan of destroying shale and world economies is actually working. You can't fight wars when your broke, right. The pen is mightier than the sword as they say. What else happens when everyone is broke ? Turmoil...chaos, and your going to see more of it all over.

lightman1

http://forum.polkaudio.com/discussion/171053/who-here-is-a-prepper-or-semi-prepared#latest
Hide your beans. Soon to be a traded currency.

steveinaz

Just remember, and worth repeating; "Unrealized losses" are just that, if you don't sell after the bottom falls out. I'm gonna stick with the strategy I've been using for years, and it got me thru 2008 relatively well.

txcoastal1

lightman1 wrote: »

http://forum.polkaudio.com/discussion/171053/who-here-is-a-prepper-or-semi-prepared#latest
Hide your beans. Soon to be a traded currency.

Tobacco, alcohol, ammo, and hot sauce...everything is edible with hot sauce

mhardy6647

steveinaz wrote: »

Just remember, and worth repeating; "Unrealized losses" are just that, if you don't sell after the bottom falls out. I'm gonna stick with the strategy I've been using for years, and it got me thru 2008 relatively well.

That's a big 10-4. Paper losses are -- paper losses... but if one sells low, those paper losses magically become real losses. Fine if one needs a tax write off against capital gains, otherwise, not so much.

... and all of this is why one's investment portfolio should be diversified.

Yeah, we did OK in 2008, too -- indeed, we decided to build the new house, figuring the builders would be fairly hungry for business.

tonyb

steveinaz wrote: »

Just remember, and worth repeating; "Unrealized losses" are just that, if you don't sell after the bottom falls out. I'm gonna stick with the strategy I've been using for years, and it got me thru 2008 relatively well.

Well, obviously....nothing is realized until you cash out. Thing is...if you never cash out, then nothing is ever realized and....whats the point then ?

Most are in it for the long term, meaning they may need to cash out at retirement time. Your still gabling that particular time will correlate with an up market. If it's a down market, you either hold off retiring or realize the losses. Then you balance that decision with how you want to live and even how many more years you have to live.

Be interesting what a new president does with the IRS code, that may change some peoples outlook for better or worse....depending.

maximillian

Could copper be down because of increase of installs with plastic (CPVC/PEX)?

txcoastal1

maximillian wrote: »

Could copper be down because of increase of installs with plastic (CPVC/PEX)?

(CPVC/PEX) has been used for years. Copper was inflated with China's construction boom. Now they have ghost cities.

Joey_V

steveinaz wrote: »

Just remember, and worth repeating; "Unrealized losses" are just that, if you don't sell after the bottom falls out. I'm gonna stick with the strategy I've been using for years, and it got me thru 2008 relatively well.

I just moved to my 401k to a conservative model. It is now transitioned from a 95-5 stock heavy portfolio to a. 60-40 portfolio with near even split of stocks and bonds.

Plan is to continue max input contributions into the 401k even as the market tumbles and then when the advisor says we have positive indicators, transition to full 95-5 stock heavy portfolio again.

Paper losses are paper losses. And yes, biggest days are right after a downturn...

But if for example I have 100k (hypothetical) in the current market.

Bear market hits and I have 50k after.

I would need a 100% gain to go back to 100k.

Whereas if I pull now that I am at 95,000. Wait a bit and transition back to full stocks .. Even if I miss the 100% gain and only gain 75% of that potential, I'd be sitting at 170k.

Far cry from the 100k and I won't get heartburn at nigt while I watch it plummet.

Polkie2009

txcoastal1 wrote: »

We had this discussion in August and this was before oil was a another trigger...gonna be a bumpy ride

http://forum.polkaudio.com/discussion/169063/wow-bad-day-for-the-market/p4

txcoastal1 wrote: »

I see this more as a correction on our end. The big banks are still above their 52 week high.
Where the slam is coming from are the commodities. I by and sell copper as part of my business. Copper is a tell tale sign of where building and material lies through the world. Copper have been on a downfall for several months.

I did a serious market pull back in April and May using copper as a warning sign that China construction had come to halt and was over inflated and would soon cause a ripple effect.

txcoastal1 wrote: »

tonyb wrote: »

txcoastal1 wrote: »

I see this more as a correction on our end. The big banks are still above their 52 week high.
Where the slam is coming from are the commodities. I by and sell copper as part of my business. Copper is a tell tale sign of where building and material lies through the world. Copper have been on a downfall for several months.

I did a serious market pull back in April and May using copper as a warning sign that China construction had come to halt and was over inflated and would soon cause a ripple effect.

My question is.....are we not in the same boat ?

Absolutely, just not as bad as China, and not as bad as we were in 2008. Real estate and banks are leveled out. If they were not we would be in the same boat China is now....same as we were in 2008 but worse.

I still see the market being over inflated by 3000 pts or maybe a little more. Volatility will probably continue to trickle the DOW down till will reach that point, but again who the h-ell knows...just an assumption. Maybe the next 24months of volatility till after election.

You are correct, things started going south in the Asian markets around late July and there was a lot of chatter about Sept. being a bloodbath, decided to pull out in early Sept. I thought a number of other members here also pulled out and went to cash then too.

cnh

Markets? Aren't they "irrational" as opposed to "rational", populated by a squadron of Business gamblers who love the extra money that "you" give them to place their bets? When will we learn? Never, I suppose.

Sure "you" can weather the storms if you have "resources" but if you're just an average Joe who has less than 30K or 40K anywhere, and most Americans don't even have that, you're screwed, because you'll NEVER be able to run with the big boys. And, lest this sound like a rant on my part. Yeah, even a bourgeois Professor can sort of survive most of this free market nonsense-and so much the worse the sting when we make it through without losing everything and we see all those who DID NOT make it!

God Bless the little guy, and may He NEVER, as we as a society always do, blame him for losing "everything"!

nooshinjohn

We are selling a condo now to free up 300k in cash. this will be used to buy gold and hold back waiting for things to correct, then oil futures are on the table. Now is the time to be ready to buy when the winds change.

lightman1

Save your beans....and create your owns winds of change.






What am I.... 12??!!

tonyb

Beans ?? I love beans....hate counting them but love eatin' 'em.

tonyb

cnh wrote: »

Markets? Aren't they "irrational" as opposed to "rational", populated by a squadron of Business gamblers who love the extra money that "you" give them to place their bets? When will we learn? Never, I suppose.
!

Lessons learned from the homeland ?? lol

It's a good gig eh ? Use other peoples money to make you money and kick back a percentage....all perfectly legal. Except if you or I did that we'd go to jail.

The majority of our problems, and the worlds, revolve around money. I say we get rid of it an go back to bartering. What else am I gonna do with all these pie tins I've collected ....and Oscar Meir Weiner Whistles ?

mhardy6647

tonyb wrote: »

Beans ?? I love beans....hate counting them but love eatin' 'em.

Heh -- we grow 'em, too...

Joey_V

Polkie2009 wrote: »

txcoastal1 wrote: »

We had this discussion in August and this was before oil was a another trigger...gonna be a bumpy ride

http://forum.polkaudio.com/discussion/169063/wow-bad-day-for-the-market/p4

txcoastal1 wrote: »

I see this more as a correction on our end. The big banks are still above their 52 week high.
Where the slam is coming from are the commodities. I by and sell copper as part of my business. Copper is a tell tale sign of where building and material lies through the world. Copper have been on a downfall for several months.

I did a serious market pull back in April and May using copper as a warning sign that China construction had come to halt and was over inflated and would soon cause a ripple effect.

txcoastal1 wrote: »

tonyb wrote: »

txcoastal1 wrote: »

I see this more as a correction on our end. The big banks are still above their 52 week high.
Where the slam is coming from are the commodities. I by and sell copper as part of my business. Copper is a tell tale sign of where building and material lies through the world. Copper have been on a downfall for several months.

I did a serious market pull back in April and May using copper as a warning sign that China construction had come to halt and was over inflated and would soon cause a ripple effect.

My question is.....are we not in the same boat ?

Absolutely, just not as bad as China, and not as bad as we were in 2008. Real estate and banks are leveled out. If they were not we would be in the same boat China is now....same as we were in 2008 but worse.

I still see the market being over inflated by 3000 pts or maybe a little more. Volatility will probably continue to trickle the DOW down till will reach that point, but again who the h-ell knows...just an assumption. Maybe the next 24months of volatility till after election.

You are correct, things started going south in the Asian markets around late July and there was a lot of chatter about Sept. being a bloodbath, decided to pull out in early Sept. I thought a number of other members here also pulled out and went to cash then too.

I have 3 main sections of investment:

1. Whole life - unrelated gains to market, safe cash haven.
2. My cash investments - since august, Yep, I'm all cash in money market and bonds.
3. 401k - used to be 95% stocks and rest bonds. Now switched to 60% stocks 40% bonds.



My

kevhed72

steveinaz wrote: »

Just remember, and worth repeating; "Unrealized losses" are just that, if you don't sell after the bottom falls out. I'm gonna stick with the strategy I've been using for years, and it got me thru 2008 relatively well.

Nail....head.....explosion. I have to work another 20 years, so I am good.

Joey_V

kevhed72 wrote: »

steveinaz wrote: »

Just remember, and worth repeating; "Unrealized losses" are just that, if you don't sell after the bottom falls out. I'm gonna stick with the strategy I've been using for years, and it got me thru 2008 relatively well.

Nail....head.....explosion. I have to work another 20 years, so I am good.

Yeah there are several strategies to this.

1. Buy and hold - you never sell. Eventually everything corrects and goes up.
2. Buy sell and hold - you buy and you sell only in bear markets and then you hold until indicators turn positive and you buy again but at a discounted rate and you ride the wave up. You will miss the entirety of the upswing but you also missed a large portion of the down so generally you end up well above had you simply buy and hold.
3. 3. Day trade - you simply play the market.

I do #2. It's still a very long term plan, it takes some volatility out of the portfolio and it protects me in case I need the cash out for some emergency reason.

.

[Deleted User]

You know..... there is this other option called Short.. Maybe it's just me.

Halen

tonyb

Aww Joey, you forgot #4.

Don't invest at all, head to Vegas and put it all on the don't pass line at the craps table.

#5- Give it all to your cousin Vito who has a line on the game this Sunday.

#6- put it all on the tip you got from the guy at the newspaper stand who knows a guy, who knows a guy, who made a fortune in South African diamond mines.

#7- Send it all to a TV Evangelist who promises you God will take care of you for your generosity.

#8- ....OR just send it to me. You'll never lose money when the market goes down and your gains will be locked in when it rises. You'll also never be able to cash out, wouldn't want you doing something silly with your money now would I ?

Easy Runnin

Once the market hits bottom or whatever seems low, I'm dumping every cent I have back in.

Hey Joey, Are you back in yet? The S&P has been on a steady upswing for the past month.

mhardy6647

Nah, he's buyin' cans of Dinty Moore Beef Stew & buryin' em for a rainy day.

;- )

madmax

When stock prices go down so don't used audio prices, I'm ready to invest!