Wow... bad day for the market.

124

Comments

  • txcoastal1
    txcoastal1 Posts: 13,124
    I see this more as a correction on our end. The big banks are still above their 52 week high.
    Where the slam is coming from are the commodities. I by and sell copper as part of my business. Copper is a tell tale sign of where building and material lies through the world. Copper have been on a downfall for several months.

    I did a serious market pull back in April and May using copper as a warning sign that China construction had come to halt and was over inflated and would soon cause a ripple effect.
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  • Polkie2009
    Polkie2009 Posts: 3,834
    Spot on call txcoastal1! ;)
  • tonyb
    tonyb Posts: 32,902
    txcoastal1 wrote: »
    I see this more as a correction on our end. The big banks are still above their 52 week high.
    Where the slam is coming from are the commodities. I by and sell copper as part of my business. Copper is a tell tale sign of where building and material lies through the world. Copper have been on a downfall for several months.

    I did a serious market pull back in April and May using copper as a warning sign that China construction had come to halt and was over inflated and would soon cause a ripple effect.

    Copper has long been a gauge in building materials, wise choice to pay attention to it. China has been over blown for so long, it was only a matter of time before the cat came out of the bag.

    My question is.....are we not in the same boat ?
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  • txcoastal1
    txcoastal1 Posts: 13,124
    tonyb wrote: »
    txcoastal1 wrote: »
    I see this more as a correction on our end. The big banks are still above their 52 week high.
    Where the slam is coming from are the commodities. I by and sell copper as part of my business. Copper is a tell tale sign of where building and material lies through the world. Copper have been on a downfall for several months.

    I did a serious market pull back in April and May using copper as a warning sign that China construction had come to halt and was over inflated and would soon cause a ripple effect.
    My question is.....are we not in the same boat ?

    Absolutely, just not as bad as China, and not as bad as we were in 2008. Real estate and banks are leveled out. If they were not we would be in the same boat China is now....same as we were in 2008 but worse.

    I still see the market being over inflated by 3000 pts or maybe a little more. Volatility will probably continue to trickle the DOW down till will reach that point, but again who the h-ell knows...just an assumption. Maybe the next 24months of volatility till after election.
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  • Joey_V
    Joey_V Posts: 8,505
    Boom... I'm out of the market. My FP was right... This ain't over brothers.

    Dropping fast. 550 points down already??

    I wonder how my 401k is doing.
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  • tonyb
    tonyb Posts: 32,902
    Election years are almost always volatile. China is accused of manipulation, hiding the bad things in their economy. Do we not do the exact same things ? Pot calling the kettle black if you ask me.

    Any of you familiar with the phrase "velocity of money" ?

    Basically, it means the economic turns a dollar has when spent. For example, if I have a burger stand and someone buys a 5 buck burger. I then take that 5 bucks and buy buns/meat/supplies/pay bills. The baker takes the money who makes the buns and turns around and buys his supplies....flour/sugar, whatever. The guy who sells flour turns around and buys the wheat.

    So that's a factor of 3, because 3 different people benefited from that 5 bucks spent at my burger joint. Actually it's more but this is a simple example of how the wheels of economics turns.

    Our velocity of money today, historically is at the lowest point since the great depression. So while stocks and the markets are doing good on paper, the reality is most these companies are using gimmicks to hide the truth and keep prices up. Same thing China is accused of doing. Government manipulates the data, which works hand in hand with Wall street. Same thing China is accused of doing. We artificially keep interest low, instead of letting market conditions dictate......same things China is accused of doing. We hand out free money, in essence financing certain sectors with debt, like Soar/wind/electric......corporate welfare, same things China was doing.

    Again, I could go on but the fundamental principles of finance and economics remains the same no matter who's running the ship. If our country was a person, with the same financial record, we'd either be in jail or bankrupt 10 times over.
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  • Joey_V
    Joey_V Posts: 8,505
    edited August 2015
    For those who think I'm crazy.

    Let me clarify.

    We are diverse. I'm out of the market only with liquid assets, but the nonliquid (401k) remains in the market since it is very long term. The liquid I might need on a shorter term basis so I leave it to my financial planner to tell me when our strategy is to leave the market or when it is time to get back in.

    My liquid assets we try to minimize large losses at the penalty of not so large gains... That was a deal I had agreed to. My upside is I generally can sleep at night knowing I won't be slapped with a 40% drop. The downside is I know I won't fully realize the rebound of a 28% upswing.

    My retirement assets remain in the market indefinitely. And I keep buying no matter the market status.

    So in a sense I am well diversified. I am partially in and out of the market. We buy even when the market is "bad" or "cheap".

    Of note, I just looked at my 401k... Damnit!! I just lost another strad.

    But in the end, who the hell knows... We are all monkeys in this circus.
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  • txcoastal1
    txcoastal1 Posts: 13,124
    "velocity of money" was great back when the money trail was with your family and neighbors and not overseas.
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  • cnh
    cnh Posts: 13,284
    edited August 2015
    I'm sure there is more FUN ahead. China will pull out of this, maybe a little hurt, but still a major player. Unfortunately, everyone else may not fare as well!

    I agree with Tony, tremendous overvaluation of the market! I've always looked at my retirement funds with a grain of salt, or more like a bottle of those soup bubbles kids play with. lol

    Global economics are too complex for any market model to handle, too many players, too much fluff, too much profit to be made through the pure manipulation of paper and numbers. The entire system is out of wack, it corrects, resets then spirals right back DOWN. The only people who can weather such nonsense are those at the very very top! The rest of us? Forgetaboutit! Open a beer and enjoy some sun! It's still summer!
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  • Joey_V
    Joey_V Posts: 8,505
    Lets pop open some beers!!

    I already stocked the fridge with some Dos Equis.
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  • tonyb
    tonyb Posts: 32,902
    Joey_V wrote: »
    Lets pop open some beers!!

    I already stocked the fridge with some Dos Equis.

    Good, hurry up and down 6 or 10, then maybe we can talk ya into a different pic for your avatar....those shorts are hurting my eyes. lol
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  • Joey_V
    Joey_V Posts: 8,505
    tonyb wrote: »
    Joey_V wrote: »
    Lets pop open some beers!!

    I already stocked the fridge with some Dos Equis.

    Good, hurry up and down 6 or 10, then maybe we can talk ya into a different pic for your avatar....those shorts are hurting my eyes. lol
    Bwahahahaha

    I'm going to be wearing shorts and flip flops the rest of my life the way this market is going!!
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  • ZLTFUL
    ZLTFUL Posts: 5,640
    Oh look...China falsely inflated their markets so now everything is OK again!
    "Some people find it easier to be conceited rather than correct."

    "Unwad those panties and have a good time man. We're all here to help each other, no matter how it might appear." DSkip
  • Polkie2009
    Polkie2009 Posts: 3,834
    Call it a dead cat bounce that failed at the closing ,DOW down -205.
  • kevhed72
    kevhed72 Posts: 4,950
    Buy buy buy.....
  • tonyb
    tonyb Posts: 32,902
    ZLTFUL wrote: »
    Oh look...China falsely inflated their markets so now everything is OK again!

    LMAO....yeah, right ? We do the same stuff yet somehow our sh$t don't stink.
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  • cnh
    cnh Posts: 13,284
    tonyb wrote: »
    ZLTFUL wrote: »
    Oh look...China falsely inflated their markets so now everything is OK again!

    LMAO....yeah, right ? We do the same stuff yet somehow our sh$t don't stink.

    I mean, WHO are you going to learn from, right? We're always telling everyone how much better our SXXT smells! lol
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  • Moose68Bash
    Moose68Bash Posts: 3,842
    edited August 2015
    tonyb wrote: »
    ZLTFUL wrote: »
    Oh look...China falsely inflated their markets so now everything is OK again!

    LMAO....yeah, right ? We do the same stuff yet somehow our sh$t don't stink.

    I don't think the US did "the same stuff" to anything like the same extent till recently -- that is since 2008 -- when the Fed launched a "quantitative easing" campaign that put money in corporate treasuries, much of which was used to finance large share buy-back programs that have inflated stock prices and depressed interest rates in recent years.

    Consequently, there has been few places to invest, except stocks, that would give an investor a reasonable rate of return. But the return from stock appreciation has not been from increased production. It has been from stock buy-back programs. Not 100%, of course, but to far to great an extent. The actions of the Fed have distorted the free market in ways that are not readily visible to post of us.

    Usually, corporations use much more of their cash to invest in new product development, plant, and equipment and thus to create jobs and grow the economy.

    Since the collapse of 2008, however, too many policies of the federal government have provided more incentives to leave money on the "sidelines" than to put it at risk in the marketplace.

    The situation is similar with respect to the billions (if not trillions) of dollars sitting in foreign countries that are foreign profits of subsidiaries of US companies. The cost of repatriating these funds is a huge disincentive to repatriation and, hence, to investment in facilities, R&D, and jobs in the US.

    You might say that this is a negative consequence of "government greed," about which we hear little v. the negative aspects of individual and corporate greed.
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  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 32,926
    just to help foster a longer-term perspective (Chinese-style)...

    dow-jones-industrial-average-djia-history.gif

    source: http://www.fedprimerate.com/djia-chart-history.htm

    The graph above, of course is missing some interesting data:
    Highest-ever DJI daily close: May 19, 2015 (18,312.39)
    ,,, and of course the last week or so...

    but still, the trend is rather relentlessly up.

    That said, of course the growth of the (global) economy basically depends on the growth of population -- which cannot increase perpetually, without bound.
  • cnh
    cnh Posts: 13,284
    edited August 2015
    Good point, Mark! One endlessly made by John Kenneth Galbraith, economists who can't see past a quarter or two, let alone a decade or more!

    Really? We hear NOTHING about Gov't greed, Moose...?

    Conservatives can't stop talking about it! lol
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  • Joey_V
    Joey_V Posts: 8,505
    edited August 2015
    Polkie2009 wrote: »
    Call it a dead cat bounce that failed at the closing ,DOW down -205.
    Not again. Another loss in 401k.

    Long term long term long term

    Glad I'm on cash for the rest. FP was right
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  • Moose68Bash
    Moose68Bash Posts: 3,842
    edited August 2015
    cnh wrote: »
    Good point, Mark! One endlessly made by John Kenneth Galbraith, economists who can't see past a quarter or two, let alone a decade or more!

    Really? We hear NOTHING about Gov't greed, Moose...?

    Conservatives can't stop talking about it! lol

    Does that mean government greed doesn't exist?

    If it did not exist, we would not be in hock for $18 trillion -- not to mention untold trillions in unfunded liabilities.

    Our federal government -- in the hands of liberals and conservatives alike -- has amassed that debt, largely in the last two decades -- again, not mentioning unfunded liabilities.

    Our government's greed is so great that we cannot even live within our income from taxes when revenue is the largest in the history of the country, as it is now.

    Incumbents cannot buy support without spending money -- even money they don't have. So, the Fed just prints more for them to spend.

    Nice deal -- that is, if you can print money.
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  • Moose68Bash
    Moose68Bash Posts: 3,842
    edited August 2015
    mhardy6647 wrote: »
    That said, of course the growth of the (global) economy basically depends on the growth of population -- which cannot increase perpetually, without bound.

    @mhardy6647,

    Don't tell me you are a Malthusian! :)
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  • cnh
    cnh Posts: 13,284
    edited August 2015
    cnh wrote: »
    Good point, Mark! One endlessly made by John Kenneth Galbraith, economists who can't see past a quarter or two, let alone a decade or more!

    Really? We hear NOTHING about Gov't greed, Moose...?

    Conservatives can't stop talking about it! lol

    Does that mean government greed doesn't exist?

    If it did not exist, we would not be in hock for $18 trillion -- not to mention untold trillions in unfunded liabilities.

    Our federal government -- in the hands of liberals and conservatives alike -- has amassed that debt, largely in the last two decades -- again, not mentioning unfunded liabilities.

    Our government's greed is so great that we cannot even live within our income from taxes when revenue is the largest in the history of the country, as it is now.

    Incumbents cannot buy support without spending money -- even money they don't have. So, the Fed just prints more for them to spend.

    Nice deal -- that is, if you can print money.

    Of course we have great debt! But then again, how many nation states in the developed world are not carrying dangerous levels of debt? And the fact that the U.S. economy has not yet collapsed has, somehow, birthed one of the wealthiest classes this country has ever seen! A wonderful paradox. Worthless dollars, more billionaires than ever! More and more wealth concentrated in fewer and fewer hands while the common man/woman bears more and more debt and taxation, can't send his/her children to a decent college, doesn't have enough to retire and has to worry that his/her job may disappear at any moment. Yes, gov't debt has something to do with that, but it is not alone! Or the only culprit-there is a duplicitous complicity between gov't and the market. Or "greed" all around. In fact, it would be "refreshing" to see some entity that was not operating from self-interested excess and greed! Basically we agree, I just want to spread the guilt around so as to include all parties. Not some autonomous Gov't that exists in a space where there are no Corps. Or Corps. that do not suck at the teat of Gov't.
    Post edited by cnh on
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  • tonyb
    tonyb Posts: 32,902
    edited August 2015
    cnh wrote: »
    cnh wrote: »
    Good point, Mark! One endlessly made by John Kenneth Galbraith, economists who can't see past a quarter or two, let alone a decade or more!

    Really? We hear NOTHING about Gov't greed, Moose...?

    Conservatives can't stop talking about it! lol

    Does that mean government greed doesn't exist?

    If it did not exist, we would not be in hock for $18 trillion -- not to mention untold trillions in unfunded liabilities.

    Our federal government -- in the hands of liberals and conservatives alike -- has amassed that debt, largely in the last two decades -- again, not mentioning unfunded liabilities.

    Our government's greed is so great that we cannot even live within our income from taxes when revenue is the largest in the history of the country, as it is now.

    Incumbents cannot buy support without spending money -- even money they don't have. So, the Fed just prints more for them to spend.

    Nice deal -- that is, if you can print money.

    Whoever said we had no debt? The problem may not be mere debt though, or only debt because if it were that simple, we'd be in Greece's shoes and would have been there a LONG time ago, we'd be in the age of Mad Max-a post apocalyptic world. There is a shell game of sorts that the U.S. plays because the dollar is still the world's currency.

    You're a fiscal conservative. Nothing wrong with that!

    Moose's point is, production isn't the reason for a rising market, debt is. We are playing a shell game of sorts and our time will come also to be held accountable. Except most can't look past their nose to realize it. Our founders gave us a system that depends on production, not debt, to advance the country. Shoring up economies with debt instead of production has never worked long term and a reckoning day is always due sooner or later. The bigger picture is, everyone on the planet is broke.

    The reason we are not Greece is because we can print money and they can't. We buy our own debt and they can't. That won't last forever though....and most refuse to believe it can't happen on their watch. Those wheels are already in motion, how long it will take is anyones guess.

    We manipulate our own markets/currency too. Ask anyone to audit the Fed and see the answer you get. Secretive ? Just like China ? How about Fort Knox where most our Gold is supposedly held.....when was the last time anyone was allowed to peek inside, take inventory to make sure it's still there ? We hold many other countries Gold too, some have asked for it back. China has also been accused of stockpiling Gold. Seems like some know something we don't. You know the old saying, "Follow the money" ? When the big money players start making shifts, red flags should be popping up in your brain.

    Fiat money has a shelf life, usually around 150 years historically. Currency backed by nothing, what a concept. Except sooner or later that's exactly what it will be worth....nothing. Everything in-between is a game of manipulations and deceit, fueled by greed. You can only escape the fundamental principles of economics and finance for so long, sooner or later you have to pay the piper and we've been avoiding that for quite some time now. The whole world has actually.

    Is it any wonder the worlds view on our country is negative when we are playing the same games as China/Russia ? We have lost our integrity and moral compass and if we as a country were a person, you wouldn't associate yourself with us either.

    Our debt is sinking us, yet some pay no attention, nor have any concern about just adding more. Just numbers right ? We won't ever have to actually pay that back, right ? Going into debt as a country used to be for emergency purposes, a crisis like wars, natural disasters. We've been in a perpetual crisis mode for decades.

    Moose talked about our debt and unfunded liabilities. Whats unfunded liabilities ? Bills you have yet to pay for. Ours is somewhere in the neighborhood of 150-200 trillion. Eh, whats a few trillion more. If I was to take dollar bills and throw them out the window every second on the clock, 60 bucks a minute consistently, it would take me about 31,000 years to reach one trillion dollars. Talk about a debt no honest person can pay.

    It's all a shell game folks, but who walks away winners and losers in the end is the ticket....and guess which side you'll be on as the general public ? When the worlds debt catches up, fiat money will be worth nothing, and that's a crisis that allows power structures to change globally.....and many around the planet want to see that happen.
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  • tonyb
    tonyb Posts: 32,902
    Thing is Mike, this is nothing new. Civilizations rise and fall, countries unite, and fall apart, history tells us so. Yet we keep falling into the same traps. When todays world economies collapse, it will start all over again with another authority, more fiat money, and building wealth again from scratch. Same sh&t, different periods of time, until we wake up and learn our lessons.
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  • tonyb
    tonyb Posts: 32,902
    mhardy6647 wrote: »
    That said, of course the growth of the (global) economy basically depends on the growth of population -- which cannot increase perpetually, without bound.

    Great observation here guys. The trick pony is of course consumption by an ever expanding population.

    Many....many in global leadership positions want that consumption to go down. In their view, limited resources will last longer with less consumption. Which btw is what we here get knocked for all over. How do you reduce consumption ? Reduce populations of course. How do you reduce populations ? I'll let you answer that one.
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  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 32,926
    Natural selection will reduce the populations for "us" given the selective pressure of limiting resources. The only problem is that natural selection isn't pretty.

    The weird thing - from my decidedly nonspecialist perspective - about the current metastable economy is the disparity between rising prices for many (not all) goods, services and commodities juxtaposed against decreasing wealth, e.g., in the stock markets and the continued stagnant wages. The mantra on the radio the past couple of days has been something along the lines of "the economy as a whole is still strong".

    It's a bit paradoxical.

    All this being said, though, I am not planning to panic -- at least not yet.
  • tonyb
    tonyb Posts: 32,902
    edited August 2015
    Nothing weird about those assertions pal. Rising prices for goods and services coupled with stagnant wages and rising taxes.....less and less disposable income equals poverty for a lot of folks.

    That's the long term trend I see anyway.

    On reducing populations though....some don't want to wait for natural selections to take hold.....impatient little boogers eh ?
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