So... how long before Facebook goes belly-up?

Polkie2009

Yea, hmmm, I quit paying attention to Warren Buffet about 4 years ago.:rolleyes: DK is right, we'll know more this week on where FB will settle. Remember, a number of months ago when the TPTB were trying to decide on the IPO price of FB, they were looking at $42.00 ish. Then about a month later it got narrowed down to $28.00-$35.00. Then it was changed to $34.00 to $38.00. A few days after that, it was agreed to open at $38.00 . So $28.00 is a very realistic price for it to settle at.

DarqueKnight

Erik Tracy wrote: »

Warren Buffet passed on the IPO.....things that make you say hmmm......

Polkie2009 wrote: »

Yea, hmmm, I quit paying attention to Warren Buffet about 4 years ago.:rolleyes:

I wonder if WB really passed on the FB IPO or if he was engaging in some (not so) subtle market manipulation....hmmmmmmm.

Polkie2009 wrote: »

So $28.00 is a very realistic price for it to settle at.

Some "experts" are harping on a $10 - $15 range, but I think this is wishful thinking based on hate.:cheesygrin:

I must say, over the years, I have been surprised by the hype and hysteria surrounding Internet company IPO's. It seems that many people think that Internet companies are immune to the requirement for sound investment analysis just like any other company. It appears that some people think that a company being based on the Internet makes it more desirable, glamorous, mysterious and more likely to succeed.

---

I don't feel the least bit of sympathy for the "faithful" who took large positions at FB's inflated offering price with the pipedream expectation that it was going to climb even higher.

transmaster

IPO's are always chancy. The biggest problem was the initial IPO price was about 10 dollars to high. Then the day traders got pissed because they expected to unload their holding in a few hours and make money off an up-tick that didn't happen. Then with the break down of NASDAQ's trading system they either didn't have confirmed share purchases to dump, or the couldn't dump the ones they had. As was said in many quarters a Zucker is born every minute.

grimmace19

Man, no wonder there are so many folks around here with crazy expensive gear... so many market pros with unlimited knowledge to make unlimited money!

Syndil

I don't think you needed to be a market pro to see where the FB IPO was headed. Only needed to not buy into the hype surrounding it.

DarqueKnight

Myspace is patiently waiting in the shadows for everyone to come running back to them once Facebook goes belly up.

deronb1

boston1450 wrote: »

shut it down today. oldest daughter puts all her everyday crap going on, on it....shut it down today

I agree and I don't get it one bit. Never had an account and never will.

Syndil

You're too old then.

deronb1

Syndil wrote: »

You're too old then.

Indeed. "And I like it that way!" :cheesygrin:

tonyb

No mention of one of the biggest hypocrites in the celebrity world and their ties to facebook ?

Maybe some know this, maybe not, but a very famous band had a 20% stake in FB before the IPO. A band that moved to avoid paying higher taxes, a band who's front man likes to tell the people here how to live their life. This band made 1 billion bucks off the IPO. More than their collective music ever will make them. Smart move ? Or another hypocrite who likes to blast big corporations and wall street ? Oh, that band is U2, his company, Evolution, was a major investor before the IPO.

Regardless, the hype is part of the game to attract money. When it comes to stocks, IPO's, etc....one must always do their due diligence before throwing money on the table. Like DK said, it's really just gambling but you want the odds in your favor and thats the name of the game. Too many get rich quick people out there who are all too eager to be in on the next Apple or Google. The market knows this too, hence the hype to drive investment. Some will always win big, while others go broke in a day. The ones that go broke are the ones always looking to make that quick buck. Not that it doesn't happen, because it does, but these are the types of people all the hype is aimed at.

Kinda reminds me of the old carnival days.......Step right up, step right up and see the worlds only woman with 2 heads. 5 bucks to be the first in your town to see this 8th wonder of the world. 5 bucks....step right up folks.

Then she comes out and has a head of another woman taped to her shoulder under her clothes......moving lips and all.

It's the way of the world gents, money drives everything, and motives create the path.

chumlie

Absolutely correct. '' Money drives everything ''. Sad to say.

tonyb

Syndil wrote: »

You're too old then.

Eh...not really. If you don't own a buisness you want to expand, or aren't trying to sell people something, or look up an old girlfriend/boyfriend from high school, what other purpose does it serve ?

Keep in mind too, it's the internet. People can be whoever they want to be. Like living the life you always dreamed of....but never did. Just my opinion of course, but FB should change their name to FV, for Face Value because thats how you have to take it all anyway......and we older people, have no use for face valued things.

falconcry72

tonyb wrote: »

...If you don't own a buisness you want to expand, or aren't trying to sell people something, or look up an old girlfriend/boyfriend from high school, what other purpose does it serve ?...

A lot of people use it to keep in touch with friends who don't live nearby. You can upload unlimited pictures, so you can share with distant friends what you're up to. It's not a substitute for a phone call, but it's a nice supplement.

and fyi, I do not have an account.

Syndil

I see FB as the opposite. People can be anyone they want to be in forums like CP and others, but on FB you actually know the people you interact with in real life before you know them on FB. There's no hiding behind the Internet on FB. It's much more of a community than a forum. I've never met any of you guys in RL, don't know what any of you look like or what your real personality is like, or even most of your real names. Nor do you know who I am or what I am like. I know every single one of my FB friends personally. Family members, friends, buddies from school, work, etc. Your network of friends on FB is an actual community, not just a random gathering of anonymous people with a single common interest.

And some of it is just sharing interesting moments or thoughts or pictures or humor--the stuff you older guys like to clog up my email inbox with via forwarded messages--but there are useful aspects of FB as well. The most useful IMO is the ability to plan events and invite people via FB. If you're familiar with Outlook and its calendar function, it's analogous to that. You set up an event, open your contact list and invite people. But I don't necessarily know everyone's email address to invite them to an appointment via Outlook, and I don't even know if everyone has an email program that is compatible with an Outlook invitation. With FB I don't have to worry about any of that. Much easier, and much easier to keep track of who is going, etc.

There's a lot more to it than that too. Can't really judge it unless you've actually used it. It's not just an endless stream of people posting mindless drivel--that's Twitter.

jbooker82

Syndil wrote: »

I see FB as the opposite. People can be anyone they want to be in forums like CP and others, but on FB you actually know the people you interact with in real life before you know them on FB. There's no hiding behind the Internet on FB.

I like to drive around town and check in to places that I dont really go to in order to have my friends think I am fancy. The check in option isnt accurate enough to tell if your actually inside or just out front.

Watch the movie Cat Fish and see if you still fell the same way. You can still be anybody you want to be on facebook.

tonyb

I get where your coming from Syndil, I guess I ment the internet in general when I made reference to anyone being who they want. If I have a function, I don't invite every friend, Tom, Dick, or Harry. It's my close friends and family.....who I want to talk to. Thus, I call them. It's more personal that way. Human interaction I guess.

But, to each his own. I don't have a problem with those that use FB, just for me....I have no use for it.

boston1450

well said tonyb....my oldest 27y/o daughter goes way overboard..my wife n 16 y/o use it properly..i do not..if facebook goes under the world will still turn..all the money's involved. well thats a risk i wouldnt of taken anyways. but thats just me

boston1450

i think the internet is a great tool. i think facebook can be a great tool. but when people get killed and hurt from facebook misuse+drama it is a sad thing. too bad it DOES happen. thats why im sour about FB

mrbigbluelight

FB does have a gagillion users to be sure, but it may be possible that quite a number of users may have numerous accounts on them because they suffer from the same affliction I have: "Can't remember what the heck my FB username and/or password is" syndrome. Solution ? Make another bogus Yahoo email account and fire up another FB account.

One of the "problems" with FB is that their click-through rate is extremely low. GM pulled their ads a couple of weeks ago because of that from what I understand.

My personal opinion (and I think we all agree with the wisdom of making financial moves based upon my extensive financial knowledge :rolleyes:) is that the financial institutions that are propping up FB right now will be unloading their exposure pretty soon. FB stock prices will head south, FB will be looking for a white knight, and the only people with the moolah to step up will be the Chinese. And .... well, you can take it from there. Make up your own conspiracy theory, I have mine.

cnh

Syndil wrote: »

I see FB as the opposite. People can be anyone they want to be in forums like CP and others, but on FB you actually know the people you interact with in real life before you know them on FB. There's no hiding behind the Internet on FB. It's much more of a community than a forum. I've never met any of you guys in RL, don't know what any of you look like or what your real personality is like, or even most of your real names. Nor do you know who I am or what I am like. I know every single one of my FB friends personally. Family members, friends, buddies from school, work, etc. Your network of friends on FB is an actual community, not just a random gathering of anonymous people with a single common interest.

And some of it is just sharing interesting moments or thoughts or pictures or humor--the stuff you older guys like to clog up my email inbox with via forwarded messages--but there are useful aspects of FB as well. The most useful IMO is the ability to plan events and invite people via FB. If you're familiar with Outlook and its calendar function, it's analogous to that. You set up an event, open your contact list and invite people. But I don't necessarily know everyone's email address to invite them to an appointment via Outlook, and I don't even know if everyone has an email program that is compatible with an Outlook invitation. With FB I don't have to worry about any of that. Much easier, and much easier to keep track of who is going, etc.

There's a lot more to it than that too. Can't really judge it unless you've actually used it. It's not just an endless stream of people posting mindless drivel--that's Twitter.

This is certainly true for "some" but does NOT hold up as a general statement for many FB users who do hide behind the internet facade and haven't met "most" of the people they "friend" etc.

On another note. Some of us are not "old", we're really Highlanders who are watching you young ones age and age as we remain "ageless" (Don't tell anyone because you'll look older than us any day now!) lol!

All kidding aside, there are timeless beings (in the sense of the "wise") who walk among us. Culture should get off its "commercially driven youth craze". Because: illness, old age and death are "common denominators" for everyone--that includes the "momentarily young"!

cnh

tonyb

cnh wrote: »

illness, old age and death are "common denominators" for everyone--that includes the "momentarily young"!

cnh

Speak for yourself.....I plan on out living all you bastages.:cheesygrin: Dontcha know smokers and drinkers, sweet eaters, live well into the 100's while all the health food nuts drop like flies ? :eek:

Ha....I shouldn't say that as I'm a closet health food nut myself. Why closet ? Somethin' about pulling out a yogurt on a construction site gets you a few looks.

nooshinjohn

tonyb wrote: »

Ha....I shouldn't say that as I'm a closet health food nut myself. Why closet ? Somethin' about pulling out a yogurt on a construction site gets you a few looks.

I thought you would be immune to that by now, given the things they say behind your back for reading "Women's Day" while you sit on the Porta-Potty.:cheesygrin:

Big Dawg

Dennis Gardner wrote: »

FB will be fine. The IPO was such a small part of their value, the ripples will be small. They aren't the first IPO that came in over valued. Their future is secure with almost a billion users. No site even comes close to the hours spent on FB. Advertisers trip over each other writing checks for the access to those minions. As FB saw more usage moving to mobile devices that don't have the real estate for the ads on their aps, they pushed hard for game developers (Zynga) to develop mobile versions of the games to replace the ad revenue drop. The revenue from users purchasing value added game cheats has been huge for both factions. With that single move, they got FB users to open their wallets to use the games. Now they receive $$$ from both sides. The game providers and players.

The founders are young and inexperienced by the good old boy standards of the past, but so were Gates, Jobs and most of the movers and shakers when this information age began.

Exactly right! Of course, has nothing to do with a grossly overpriced IPO.

tonyb

nooshinjohn wrote: »

I thought you would be immune to that by now, given the things they say behind your back for reading "Women's Day" while you sit on the Porta-Potty.:cheesygrin:

Just a FYI....it was " Better Homes and Gardens", if you really must know.

Jstas

DarqueKnight

I know of one fellow who will be forever grateful for Facebook. Ten years ago, Brian Banks was falsely accused of rape by Wanetta Gibson. After doing five years in prison and another five years as a registered sex offender, Ms. Gibson sent Mr. Banks a Facebook friend request asking if they could let "bygones be bygones". This set in motion a process by which Mr. Banks was cleared of the rape conviction:

Brian Banks exonerated after Facebook contact by rape accuser.

Dang, what happened to the $750,000 (or $1.5 million) settlement the accuser received?:

Brian Banks accuser destitute 10 years after receiving $750,000 settlement.

Other sources say Gibson received a $1.5 million settlement from the school. I don't know the reason for the $750,000 discrepancy between the amount reported in the LA Times and other sources such as this one from AOL:

Brian Banks cleared of rape.

Maybe the school had to cough up half and insurance or other sources covered the other half.

bmbguy

I saw that story last week. Pretty incredible. Also pretty incredible that his lawyer talked him into pleading 'no contest' when he himself obviously knew he was innocent. Geez, thanks for all your help, counsel.

kevhed72

Erik Tracy wrote: »

Warren Buffet passed on the IPO.....things that make you say hmmm.....

Sure wished I got in on the Qualcomm IPO though.....

Good point....Mr. Buffet usually invests in companies based on his LONG TERM outlook for that company.

sucks2beme

Facebook was a rotten deal from the get go. Overpriced even before the "lowered earnings forecast".
The hype machine died pretty quickly. My guess is future IPO's also don't go well. The days of starry
eyed investors is over.

falconcry72

congrats on another near 10% drop, DK!:biggrin: