So... how long before Facebook goes belly-up?

nooshinjohn
nooshinjohn Posts: 25,396
edited September 2012 in The Clubhouse
I give them about 18 months. The stock is already down almost 20% and the second full week of the newly public company is about to begin. Why anyone thought that allowing a company with no real assets, products, solid revenue stream or an experienced leadership team with a vision on any kind to go public in this economy was out of their minds.

Can you believe this company had a market cap greater than the Walt Disney empire... some 17 Billion dollars? for what???
What a rip off and what a collosal failure of our system of checks and balances against a giant rip off main-street by the Wall St. fat cats.:rolleyes:
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  • chumlie
    chumlie Posts: 8,658
    edited May 2012
    Greed, always greed. Bet the boys that bought into the original IPO are doin some major crybabying now.
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  • ViperZ
    ViperZ Posts: 2,046
    edited May 2012
    I don't know how long it will take, but it should have never been appraised that high. Like you said, no real physical assets, no products, revenue stream is stable, but way below what it should be for that IPO. Well, whatever, we'll see how quickly it will tank to its real value.
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  • Face
    Face Posts: 14,340
    edited May 2012
    I wish I could have made money on knowing it would go down...

    As far as going belly up, not anytime soon.
    "He who fights with monsters should look to it that he himself does not become a monster. And when you gaze long into an abyss the abyss also gazes into you." Friedrich Nietzsche
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  • txcoastal1
    txcoastal1 Posts: 13,274
    edited May 2012
    Things like Facebook are a fad, like My Space and Beany Babies it will all disolve
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  • mrbiron
    mrbiron Posts: 5,711
    edited May 2012
    Don't care how long it takes.....as long as it does :twisted:
    Where’s the KABOOM?!?! There’s supposed to be an Earth shattering KABOOM!!!
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  • Face
    Face Posts: 14,340
    edited May 2012
    Myspace is still around.
    "He who fights with monsters should look to it that he himself does not become a monster. And when you gaze long into an abyss the abyss also gazes into you." Friedrich Nietzsche
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  • Syndil
    Syndil Posts: 1,582
    edited May 2012
    I feel sorry for anyone that didn't see this coming. I know a few people that invested thousands into the FB IPO... They didn't ask me for my opinion ahead of time, though. Ridiculously (and I had thought obviously) overvalued. I spoke to one of them yesterday... He is planning on holding on to his shares until they go back over his purchase price. I'll be very surprised if that ever happens. The only way I can see that happening is if FB takes on large numbers of new users. How many more users are there left for FB to take on?

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  • chumlie
    chumlie Posts: 8,658
    edited May 2012
    They would be smart to cut their losses now. IMO
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  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 33,770
    edited May 2012
    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/opinion/sunday/douthat-the-facebook-illusion.html?_r=1&hp
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  • DarqueKnight
    DarqueKnight Posts: 6,765
    edited May 2012
    nooshinjohn wrote: »
    I give them about 18 months.

    Perhaps much longer if the upward trend in online advertising continues.
    nooshinjohn wrote: »
    Why anyone thought that allowing a company with no real assets, products, solid revenue stream or an experienced leadership team with a vision on any kind to go public in this economy was out of their minds.

    Facebook makes money from advertising. The U.S. market for online ads was $26 billion in 2010. Facebook accounted for $1.86 billion of that. FB's 2011 ad revenue more than doubled to $4 billion in 2011 and is projected to top $5 billion in 2012.

    In comparison, the 2010 ad revenue for televison was $36 billion and it was $30 billion for magazine and newspaper ads.

    Traditional forms of advertising (TV and print) have seen substantial revenue decreases year by year while online advertising has seen substantial increases.

    The success of tabloids and trash reality shows attests to the public's demand for voyueristic insight into other people's lives. Facebook (and Twitter) provide online versions of the reality show business model: very low production costs, very low maintenance costs, very high profit margins.

    Facebook, and other online content providers, are easily able to deliver a very valuable "product" to advertisers: detailed profiles on the personal information and reading and viewing habits and of subscibers. This is something TV and print content providers cannot easily do.
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  • CCNJ
    CCNJ Posts: 384
    edited May 2012
    Syndil wrote: »
    I feel sorry for anyone that didn't see this coming. I know a few people that invested thousands into the FB IPO... They didn't ask me for my opinion ahead of time, though. Ridiculously (and I had thought obviously) overvalued. I spoke to one of them yesterday... He is planning on holding on to his shares until they go back over his purchase price. I'll be very surprised if that ever happens. The only way I can see that happening is if FB takes on large numbers of new users. How many more users are there left for FB to take on?

    They already have a pretty huge number of FB users. People are betting that they figure out a way to monetize their brand. I did not buy any shares but i wouldn't short the stock either. We will have to wait and see.
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  • obieone
    obieone Posts: 5,077
    edited May 2012
    nooshinjohn wrote: »
    I give them about 18 months. The stock is already down almost 20% and the second full week of the newly public company is about to begin. Why anyone thought that allowing a company with no real assets, products, solid revenue stream or an experienced leadership team with a vision on any kind to go public in this economy was out of their minds.

    Can you believe this company had a market cap greater than the Walt Disney empire... some 17 Billion dollars? for what???
    [I]What a rip off and what a collosal failure of our system of checks and balances against a giant rip off main-street by the Wall St. fat cats[/I].:rolleyes:

    Easy bro. You're starting to sound like the OWS crowd:razz:

    Besides, PT Barnum said it best: "Never give a sucker an even break"
    I refuse to argue with idiots, because people can't tell the DIFFERENCE!
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  • cnh
    cnh Posts: 13,284
    edited May 2012
    nooshinjohn wrote: »
    I give them about 18 months. The stock is already down almost 20% and the second full week of the newly public company is about to begin. Why anyone thought that allowing a company with no real assets, products, solid revenue stream or an experienced leadership team with a vision on any kind to go public in this economy was out of their minds.

    Can you believe this company had a market cap greater than the Walt Disney empire... some 17 Billion dollars? for what???
    What a rip off and what a collosal failure of our system of checks and balances against a giant rip off main-street by the Wall St. fat cats.:rolleyes:
    mhardy6647 wrote: »
    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/opinion/sunday/douthat-the-facebook-illusion.html?_r=1&hp

    I couldn't agree more. Also Mark's link to NY Times article is spot on in the comparison with Apple and Amazon. If you want to make money on the web or most any another venue...please, please, please DO something more than mine data or offer up the vainglorious.

    "Mirror, mirror on the wall! Who is the most "fatuous of us all"?

    --I am NOT saying that the site has no use. So let's not hear the constant refrain from those who like the site, etc. No one is stopping you from using it. Just don't think such sites warrant your investment dollars unless you want to lose them?

    cnh
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  • DarqueKnight
    DarqueKnight Posts: 6,765
    edited May 2012
    cnh wrote: »
    If you want to make money on the web or most any another venue...please, please, please DO something more than mine data or offer up the vainglorious.

    Google seems to be doing quite well offering nothing more than data mining. It's a $12 billion dollar market, $8.8 billion of which belongs to Google.:wink:

    Social media sites do offer some entertainment value, not all of which is of the vainglorious variety.
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  • Syndil
    Syndil Posts: 1,582
    edited May 2012
    CCNJ wrote: »
    They already have a pretty huge number of FB users. People are betting that they figure out a way to monetize their brand. I did not buy any shares but i wouldn't short the stock either. We will have to wait and see.

    I don't know... FB is already chock full of ads as it is. I just don't see much more opportunity for new income, other than new users. But I could be wrong.

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  • cnh
    cnh Posts: 13,284
    edited May 2012
    DarqueKnight wrote: »
    Google seems to be doing quite well offering nothing more than data mining. It's a $12 billion dollar market, $8.8 billion of which belongs to Google.:wink:

    Social media sites do offer some entertainment value, not all of which is of the vainglorious variety.

    Point taken. But is it really fair to compare something like the world's most useful and powerful search engine and its vast tech array to facebook?

    And of course. I do not intend to label all web sites vainglorious--that goes without saying. Sometimes I wonder if Polkies are "familiar" with the uses of "hyperbole" in writing?

    You know I respect your opinion, DK.

    cnh
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  • Face
    Face Posts: 14,340
    edited May 2012
    nooshinjohn wrote: »
    I give them about 18 months. The stock is already down almost 20% and the second full week of the newly public company is about to begin. Why anyone thought that allowing a company with no real assets, products, solid revenue stream or an experienced leadership team with a vision on any kind to go public in this economy was out of their minds.
    Just because no one accepted you friend requests... :p
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  • DarqueKnight
    DarqueKnight Posts: 6,765
    edited May 2012
    cnh wrote: »
    Point taken. But is it really fair to compare something like the world's most useful and powerful search engine and its vast tech array to facebook?

    They are both Internet-based data mining operations that make money by selling advertising. Google is a serious research tool offering information on just about everything to the general public. Facebook is a serious research tool offering the personal information and web browsing habits of subscribers to advertisers.
    cnh wrote: »
    And of course. I do not intend to label all web sites vainglorious--that goes without saying.

    I did not assume your comment applied to the totality of websites. I assumed it to be within the context of social media websites, where much of the content is of the vainglorious variety, particularly that generated by celebrities and wannabe celebrities.
    cnh wrote: »
    Sometimes I wonder if Polkies are "familiar" with the uses of "hyperbole" in writing?

    I am.
    cnh wrote: »
    You know I respect your opinion, DK.

    And I yours cnh.
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  • falconcry72
    falconcry72 Posts: 3,580
    edited May 2012
    So I take it everyone who's sure of Facebook's stock price decline has invested in shorting the FB stock? Yes?
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  • txcoastal1
    txcoastal1 Posts: 13,274
    edited May 2012
    I guess if you look at FB in somewhat the same perspective as our elders did with television they both are media based on advestisment that humans see now as main stream. Will it survive? How long?

    We have seen dying many breeds before...depends on how fresh they can keep it and able to roll with the times.

    Remember watching real movies Gone with the Wind, "John Wayne" etc...then to Dukes of Hazards, Starsky & Hutch...then Seinfeld/Friends...into cheap reality TV...so who knows

    Also we used to have sports without glam and bitching...and boxing used to rule
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  • DarqueKnight
    DarqueKnight Posts: 6,765
    edited May 2012
    falconcry72 wrote: »
    So I take it everyone who's sure of Facebook's stock price decline has invested in shorting the FB stock? Yes?

    I, and a few of my investment club members, did.
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  • Dennis Gardner
    Dennis Gardner Posts: 4,861
    edited May 2012
    FB will be fine. The IPO was such a small part of their value, the ripples will be small. They aren't the first IPO that came in over valued. Their future is secure with almost a billion users. No site even comes close to the hours spent on FB. Advertisers trip over each other writing checks for the access to those minions. As FB saw more usage moving to mobile devices that don't have the real estate for the ads on their aps, they pushed hard for game developers (Zynga) to develop mobile versions of the games to replace the ad revenue drop. The revenue from users purchasing value added game cheats has been huge for both factions. With that single move, they got FB users to open their wallets to use the games. Now they receive $$$ from both sides. The game providers and players.

    The founders are young and inexperienced by the good old boy standards of the past, but so were Gates, Jobs and most of the movers and shakers when this information age began.
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  • falconcry72
    falconcry72 Posts: 3,580
    edited May 2012
    DarqueKnight wrote: »
    I, and a few of my investment club members, did.

    Nice. Good luck!:biggrin:
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  • Polkie2009
    Polkie2009 Posts: 3,834
    edited May 2012
    I was unable to get in early with the big boys on the FB IPO. Decided to just wait 3 or 4 days and see what the stock was going to do and as most of you who are invested in the stock market and follow it daily, it looks like the market will decide where the FB stock is worth. I'm in if it gets to $22.00 . The folks running FB aren't idiots, they have the money to buy up other talent and grow FB different ways. If online gambling comes in, Zynga may catch on fire, for now it sounds like they've got a deal going with AXP(that's American Express to all you homegamers).
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  • falconcry72
    falconcry72 Posts: 3,580
    edited May 2012
    DarqueKnight wrote: »
    I, and a few of my investment club members, did.
    Nice. Good luck!

    ...or are you already out?
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  • boston1450
    boston1450 Posts: 7,630
    edited May 2012
    shut it down today. oldest daughter puts all her everyday crap going on, on it....shut it down today
    ..
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  • mhardy6647
    mhardy6647 Posts: 33,770
    edited May 2012
    Polkie2009 wrote: »
    I was unable to get in early with the big boys on the FB IPO. Decided to just wait 3 or 4 days and see what the stock was going to do and as most of you who are invested in the stock market and follow it daily, it looks like the market will decide where the FB stock is worth. I'm in if it gets to $22.00...
    why $22?
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  • Syndil
    Syndil Posts: 1,582
    edited May 2012
    falconcry72 wrote: »
    So I take it everyone who's sure of Facebook's stock price decline has invested in shorting the FB stock? Yes?

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebook-trading-tiggered-short-sale-rule-monday-2012-05-22

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  • DarqueKnight
    DarqueKnight Posts: 6,765
    edited May 2012
    falconcry72 wrote: »
    ...or are you already out?

    No.
    Polkie2009 wrote: »
    I'm in if it gets to $22.00.

    I expect it will "settle" sometime next week in the range of $25 to $28. This is based on growth potential and subtacting the hype factor. This could be overly optimistic based on the unexpected ill will generated in recent days. The $22 price mentioned by Polkie2009 might be more realistic. Afterall, we are just gambling.
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  • Erik Tracy
    Erik Tracy Posts: 4,673
    edited May 2012
    Warren Buffet passed on the IPO.....things that make you say hmmm.....

    Sure wished I got in on the Qualcomm IPO though.....

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