Something to think about

Jstas

10:30 pm tonight the U.S. Navy is going to attempt to shoot down a satellite using the ballistic missile defense system installed on the U.S.S. Lake Erie (CG 70).

Some stories:

CNN: http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/space/02/20/satellite.shootdown/index.html

LiveScience: http://www.livescience.com/space/businesstechnology/080220-tw-satellite-shootdown.html

So what's to think about? Well, for one thing it is a DEFENSIVE system being used to take down a satellite which is an OFFENSIVE maneuver. For another, satellites have been violently taken out of orbit before. Even the Chinese have done it. But, no one has done it as more than just a test. This is a real world demonstration of a capability.

Now this satellite that is getting annihilated tonight is, without a doubt, a spy satellite. There is no doubt in my mind that the whole reason it has been marked for destruction is that its mission is much more sensitive than the powers that be would have us believe and we do not want this falling in to enemy hands in any way. I also doubt that the satellite stopped working just hours after arrival in orbit. If it's not working, let the orbit degrade and let the damn thing hit the ground. Instead we are going to blow $20 mil turning this thing into space junk.

Why?

Because the LiveScience article is right. There is a tremendous capability on U.S. Navy ships right now and it is clear that the world does not understand the levity of the situation. So what does the Navy do? It demonstrates a capability that has been previously unknown. They did it 5 years ago with the first ever ballistic missile intercept in the history of man and used the same system to do it.

So, with the ever increasing threat of international espionage, how does the U.S. Military send a message to our enemies both known and unknown and even potential enemies? Flex some muscle. Think of how high an orbiting satellite is. Usually in the 400-600 mile range. Think of what it takes to track a target at that distance and at 22,000 MPH. Now we are going to try to shoot it out of the sky. This is like firing a bullet the size of a Buick traveling somewhere around mach 4 (or whatever the velocity was that was needed to break the gravitational pull of the Earth) then hitting another bullet the size of a bus moving at 22,000 MPH.

Essentially, this is going to be a message to China at the minimum. We're gonna take out our own satellite from a ship floating off the coast of Hawaii, probably from the Pacific Missile Range Facility firing range. If we can do it to our stuff, we can do it to your stuff too China...and anyone else who thinks they want to take a peek.


All I can say is glad I'm on this side!

bobman1235

Interesting point of view. A little paranoid, but certainly plausible.

I'm sure the government would argue that it IS a defensive maneuver; if they don't shoot it down it could fall unpredictably, whereas if they shoot it down they have a better idea of what's going to happen. Whether that's ACTUALLY the case is up for debate, but you can see how they can classify it as "defensive".

Kris Siegel

Jstas wrote: »

Now this satellite that is getting annihilated tonight is, without a doubt, a spy satellite. There is no doubt in my mind that the whole reason it has been marked for destruction is that its mission is much more sensitive than the powers that be would have us believe and we do not want this falling in to enemy hands in any way. I also doubt that the satellite stopped working just hours after arrival in orbit. If it's not working, let the orbit degrade and let the damn thing hit the ground. Instead we are going to blow $20 mil turning this thing into space junk.

I take it you'll put on your tin foil hat at around 10:30 tonight?

ohskigod

one thing is for sure, we'll never have all of the information on this. John has a point, the ability being demonstrated will definitly get some nation's attention. However, I got a feeling they got a good idea where the sattelite will land, and it wouldnt be good for it to land where it is going to land. might be safety issues we have no clue about.....for good reason..lol

but again, we'll never be 100% sure

Jstas

Heh. Tin foil hat. Yeah, sure. If only you knew. Since it is obviously not clear from the level of detail I have limited myself to in the previous post, I have more than a passing interest in this event. I will not say any more than that.

jakelm

Reminds me of the show (cant remember the name), but where the Russians had a satelite in orbit that was malfunctioned. When we went up ther to repair it, it was full of missels.

It will be a good practice shot for when we will need to shoot down that comet in 2012.

Just so they dont miss and hit my Sprint Nextel satelite.

Kris Siegel

jakelm wrote: »

Reminds me of the show (cant remember the name), but where the Russians had a satelite in orbit that was malfunctioned. When we went up ther to repair it, it was full of missels.

That was a movie... good movie but can't remember the name of it now.

steveinaz

Agree; there's a security as well as Hazmat issue at play--but we also want to show a little military might, and test a system at the same time. No tin foil hat issue---just reality.

jakelm

Kris Siegel wrote: »

That was a movie... good movie but can't remember the name of it now.

Wasnt it a James Bond movie? No..maybe not. Not Space Cowboys or something like that.

Kris Siegel

jakelm wrote: »

It will be a good practice shot for when we will need to shoot down that comet in 2012.

Are you referring to this? If so, take a look at the Palermo scale. I don't think we have anything to worry about.

Take a look at the current impact risks from NASA.

Kris Siegel

jakelm wrote: »

Wasnt it a James Bond movie? No..maybe not. Not Space Cowboys or something like that.

It might have been space cowboys. Definitely not James Bond.

Fireman32

It was space cowboys

strider

Jstas wrote: »

Heh. Tin foil hat. Yeah, sure. If only you knew. Since it is obviously not clear from the level of detail I have limited myself to in the previous post, I have more than a passing interest in this event. I will not say any more than that.

FWIW, I think you got a very plausible hypothesis.

Is there any shot we'll be able to see the thing blow up tonight? Should be pretty dark, with the eclipse happening.

Jstas

strider wrote: »

FWIW, I think you got a very plausible hypothesis.

Is there any shot we'll be able to see the thing blow up tonight? Should be pretty dark, with the eclipse happening.

I really doubt it. If there is anything, it will just be a flash and even though the things involved are quite large, they will be over 400 miles away and moving extremely fast. Unless you got some awesome radar in your backyard and your backyard is floating somewhere north by northwest of Hawaii, you're not going to see anything.

tonyb

Regardless,the thing is failing and if let alone to hit the ground,could be in a populated area.Who in their right mind would let this happen if you have the capacity to change the outcome?Blast it out of the sky,end of story.No big story here.

jakelm

Jstas wrote: »

I really doubt it. If there is anything, it will just be a flash and even though the things involved are quite large, they will be over 400 miles away and moving extremely fast. Unless you got some awesome radar in your backyard and your backyard is floating somewhere north by northwest of Hawaii, you're not going to see anything.

Unless it has 20 nuclear warheads in it.:eek:

Jstas

Blasting it out of the sky doesn't really blast it out of the sky. It just turns it into a larger mass of smaller pieces that can be even more destructive. When China blew theirs up, it took one decrepit old weather satellite that was hurtling through the upper atmosphere without a problem and turned it into something like 2700 smaller pieces with a fairly large percentage being over 4 inches long. Stuff that large flying around out there at 11,000 miles an hour has a destructive force on the level of the 767's flying into the World Trade Center.

The odds of a satellite hitting a populated area are quite low. There is more going on with that satellite than safety concerns.

jakelm

The remains would just burn up in the atmosphere.

Jstas

jakelm wrote: »

Unless it has 20 nuclear warheads in it.:eek:

Ugh. I get the humor but a warhead is not going to go boom when something like a kinetic warhead hits it. It's just going to break open and throw radioactive stuff all over the place. It's known as a "dirty bomb". For a nuke to explode, a very precise reaction needs to be set in motion by the detonator. If it doesn't happen exactly right, it'll just pop like a radioactive zit and nothing more. No boom, no clouds, no nothing. Just a radioactive mess we can't clean up.

Jstas

jakelm wrote: »

The remains would just burn up in the atmosphere.

They would have to degrade in their orbit enough to re-enter the atmosphere. When something that large is screeching through an orbit that fast, it carries a great deal of inertia. When you all of a sudden turn the one gigantic piece of equipment into thousands of tiny bits of equipment, you may have bled off some inertia but you still have imparted the same level of energy on those smaller pieces. With that much energy imparted onto an object with a drastically reduced level of weight, those tiny pieces will continue to orbit for years, maybe even decades, before the orbit degrades enough to re-enter the atmosphere far enough to burn up.

jakelm

Jstas wrote: »

Ugh. I get the humor but a warhead is not going to go boom when something like a kinetic warhead hits it. It's just going to break open and throw radioactive stuff all over the place. It's known as a "dirty bomb". For a nuke to explode, a very precise reaction needs to be set in motion by the detonator. If it doesn't happen exactly right, it'll just pop like a radioactive zit and nothing more. No boom, no clouds, no nothing. Just a radioactive mess we can't clean up.

Ok bad joke, but you know what I mean..

jakelm

Jstas wrote: »

They would have to degrade in their orbit enough to re-enter the atmosphere. When something that large is screeching through an orbit that fast, it carries a great deal of inertia. When you all of a sudden turn the one gigantic piece of equipment into thousands of tiny bits of equipment, you may have bled off some inertia but you still have imparted the same level of energy on those smaller pieces. With that much energy imparted onto an object with a drastically reduced level of weight, those tiny pieces will continue to orbit for years, maybe even decades, before the orbit degrades enough to re-enter the atmosphere far enough to burn up.

We cant just leave it there.

So what do you suggest?


...Mr. Know It All....:p

Kris Siegel

jakelm wrote: »

We cant just leave it there.

So what do you suggest?


...Mr. Know It All....:p

Sure we can. This satellite is in a very low orbit. That's the only reason we decided we could blow it up otherwise the debris would have damaged shuttles, satellites and possibly even the space station.

In the orbit that it is in, they'll eventually burn up and come to Earth. It probably won't take decades but it could take a couple of years. In the mean time, they're not hurting anything

shadowofnight

Lets just hope they take a full breath...let half out ..and squeeze the trigger slowly. It would be pretty embarrassing to miss as well

jakelm

Kris Siegel wrote: »

Sure we can. This satellite is in a very low orbit. That's the only reason we decided we could blow it up otherwise the debris would have damaged shuttles, satellites and possibly even the space station.

In the orbit that it is in, they'll eventually burn up and come to Earth. It probably won't take decades but it could take a couple of years. In the mean time, they're not hurting anything

Thus the conspiracy??

Kris Siegel

jakelm wrote: »

Thus the conspiracy??

Not sure why that would make it a conspiracy. Seems the safest way to me though I wouldn't blame our millitary for wanting to test this out regardless since China did it last year.

cfrizz

It's a shame they can't send a space shuttle up to retrieve it. If they do fire at it I hope they don't miss!

Jstas

shadowofnight wrote: »

Lets just hope they take a full breath...let half out ..and squeeze the trigger slowly. It would be pretty embarrassing to miss as well

That's why we have a cruiser and two destroyers lined up to take 3 shots at it.

Jstas

cfrizz wrote: »

It's a shame they can't send a space shuttle up to retrieve it. If they do fire at it I hope they don't miss!

The space shuttle wouldn't be able to get it, it's too big.

It's not a matter of if they do it. They are doing it at 10:30 tonight.

shawn474

I have heard that this type of thing has been done before (by the US and other countries as well). The issue of blowing it up is twofold:
1. to let the debris burn safely in the atmosphere upon re-entry so as to not let a huge chunk fall to earth causing potential casualties.
2. the real reason that we are shooting it down is so that the remains do not fall into "enemy" hands. The conspiracy theorists would have you believe that we are shooting it down because it's a spy satellite that has incrminating photos, data, etc. In actuality, the fear of the military is that if it was to fall to earth and recovered, that another country could get ahold of it and crack the encryption codes that are contained on it.

Just my .02.

bobman1235

Right during a full lunar eclipse!! Now there's a conspiracy.