Blu-ray turning the corner?

cheddar

PhantomOG wrote:

If DVD titles' Amazon ranking number points to the demise of HD-DVD, what does it mean that there are 2 HD-DVD players with higher ranking numbers than the first Blu-Ray player?

Not sure what you mean here. That there are two hd-dvd players with higher rankings than the samsung? With all the lousy press it got? I'd say the numbers for stand alones doesn't mean much at this point 'cause the ps3 is probably over 2 million shipped at this point. So considering that as of January 5th, there were only 175,000 of all types of hd-dvd players (stand alone, computer, and 360 add-on), it doesn't mean a thing.

PhantomOG

My whole point is your are seeing what you want to see and excusing/justifying/rationalizing what you don't want to see. I guess its just not getting through.

cheddar

PhantomOG wrote:

My whole point is your are seeing what you want to see and excusing/justifying/rationalizing what you don't want to see. I guess its just not getting through.

All sales data is just that, data. It doesn't mean anything until someone applies some reasoning to it. What you've been doing is no different. I just believe in putting the most data out there and letting people decide for themselves whether or not to agree with me. So here's a much better presentation of the data than you gave. I'm not trying to skew the numbers or play funny with them. Just presenting what they are with a little bit of my POV and letting people decide for themselves. You call it excusing/justifying/rationlizing. I'd prefer to just let people make their own decisions on the worth of my points. Just like any other post in any other forum. If you don't think I have credibility, then why discuss this with me? I'm posting this only for people who might find value in what I say that might help them in their purchasing decisions.

Top HD players (just looked up on amazon):

HDDVD 360 add-on rank 63
BR ps3 60 gig rank 89
HDDVD toshiba a2 rank 395
BR ps3 20 gig rank 1033
BR samsung rank 1399
BR panasonic rank 4981
BR sony rank 5119
BR philips rank 5782
HDDVD toshiba a1 rank 7178

And these are the things I think it might be helpful to know for people in looking at the numbers.

1. The game consoles on either side appear to be driving the installed base.
2. Player choice is clearly on the side of Blu-ray.
3. The 360 add-on is sold below retail and is shipped directly from amazon. The ps3 is only available from third party vendors at a huge mark-up. The lowest new price I saw was $781.84. This is a huge mark-up from the retail of $599 and even the going rate on ebay. So I doubt if amazon is a primary source for ps3s. And even then at $781.84 to $199.82 it still compares well to the 360 add-on.
4. The more expensive 60 gig ps3 is selling far more than the cheaper 20 gig at $679.00. I find it amazing that people are still willing to buy these things at these prices even though you can pick the 60 gig up at retail at circuit city.

All the data, none of it fudged. A little of my own opinion. What's wrong with that on a HT forum?

Demiurge

You must work for or own some serious stock in Sony or something. It was fun to argue for a few weeks over it, but isn't it time to let it play itself out and just enjoy what you have?

Some are going to shell out the money for this next gen technology, and that's awesome. I got lucky and got an HDDVD player as a gift.

Others are going to wait to see which one wins out in the market.

The rest are just satisfied with what they have and don't care.

I'm enjoying what I have just fine, and I could truly care less which format wins. We all have our biases based on what we own/want to be true, and that's the rub on that.

cheddar

Demiurge wrote:

You must work for or own some serious stock in Sony or something. It was fun to argue for a few weeks over it, but isn't it time to let it play itself out and just enjoy what you have?

Some are going to shell out the money for this next gen technology, and that's awesome. I got lucky and got an HDDVD player as a gift.

Others are going to wait to see which one wins out in the market.

The rest are just satisfied with what they have and don't care.

I'm enjoying what I have just fine, and I could truly care less which format wins. We all have our biases based on what we own/want to be true, and that's the rub on that.

Phantom took the time to make a post. I took the time to respond. I think we all agree that the horse is dead.

Holydoc

Well I will throw my dice into the mix.

Sony has definitely not declared their PS3 game console a financial success at this time. AVS forums roundtable discussion on their podcast mentioned that Sony is blaming the monetary failure of their PS3 on the steep price for the unit. There are now rumors in the Sony camp that in order to stimulate sales of the PS3, that Sony may start producing the PS3 Lite. It is rumored that this machine will replace the Blu-ray player with a standard DVD player to reduce the costs.

Of course this is all rumors at this point (and can be heard in its entirety on the AVS Podcast Review of Gaming Consoles). But if the above comes to pass, I bet you will see a huge drop in the Blu-ray momentum.

It is just too early to predict a winner.

cheddar

No doubt that sony has missed its initial shipment targets. I'm actually surprised that more people didn't mention that sony is not meeting forcasts when trying to argue against my points.

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=12408

2 million may not be winning any sales records for game consoles as the wii has completely trounced both the ps3's and 360's launch numbers, but it is one helluva lot of blu-ray players and it only came two weeks late off their projections. And it's still ahead of ps2 sales at this point in its launch. Although, with the wii, this is a very different market, game console-wise.

Nomura has dropped their forcasts also from 6 million to 4.5 million by march. I believe that sony's gaming unit may very well be feeling the heat from the wii. But what may be somewhat dissappointing for console numbers is simply outstanding for hd player numbers if you figure that by the HD-DVD camp's own rosy estimates at CES they will only have an installed base of 2.5 million players by the end of 2007.

And although the article doesn't state it, it's been reported elsewhere that Nomura revised shipment numbers downward for the next two years to 10 million for 2007 and 11 million for 2008. So even with intense competition, if the ps3 meets these revised estimates, they will still be on par with the 360 which shipped at most 10 million units with no competition in its first year.

So I agree, probably some uncertainty in the final sales numbers for this year. But I certainly wouldn't blow all the rumors out of proportion. I mean there's a rumor that the 360 v2 is coming out with hdmi. Does that mean that the current 360 is screwed? I don't think so. MS, Sony, they're adjusting to a very complex market for consoles. But there are already 2 million blu-ray players out there via the ps3 with probably another 2-3 million by march. That's still a lot of momentum even if they do release another console at some point.

Yes it's still too early to tell a winner. Final sales numbers will be very important at the end of next Christmas season. Just saying there's no more first mover advantage for HD-DVD at the current time. And the installed base numbers just don't look too good moving into the summer. ****'s gonna have to start flooding the market soon if they want to have an impact by Christmas...;)

Edit: Here's the link to the whole nomura report citing troubling sales and lowered sales predictions.

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=12397

scottvamp

Actually, **** has sort of dropped mass production of HD. And it probably would not have happened anyway.
Does anyone know why the number one reality show for 8 years "Survivor" has never gone HD?
Same reason - too much detail. From recent adult shots, it is said that something as simple as razor burn is way too noticable. Who knew? ME!:D

cheddar

scottvamp wrote:

Actually, **** has sort of dropped mass production of HD. And it probably would not have happened anyway.
Does anyone know why the number one reality show for 8 years "Survivor" has never gone HD?
Same reason - too much detail. From recent adult shots, it is said that something as simple as razor burn is way too noticable. Who knew? ME!:D

Yeah, I've noticed that there seem to be two kinds of hd broadcast cameras. Some tv programs come out in great detail with every pit in someone's face exposed, while others seem to intentionally fuzz out the detail, like in game shows that have a daily shoot schedule. Some of the faces look very washed out.