Blu-ray turning the corner?

cheddar

Not predicting that hd-dvd won't be around much longer like some analysts in this article (rumor has it **** is on its side...:rolleyes:). But if the info in this article is mostly correct, the momentum is defintely on the side of blu-ray. And it also clears things up for any doubters out there that ps3 sales will have a significant effect on overall blu-ray sales. The spike in blu-ray software sales coincides with its release.

“Blu-ray sales performance surpassed HD-DVD for the first time the week of Dec. 24 and did so by an impressive 20%,” said Mike Dunn, worldwide president of 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment. He said by the end of the first quarter of 2007, “our research shows Blu-ray outselling HD DVD by a 3.5-to-1 ratio.”

Not surprising since the total HD-DVD players on the market including 360s with the add-on were only 175,000 in north america as of January 5th and the ps3 more than doubled that at launch last November.

For all the people who keep touting that we need both formats and that you should cover both of your bases or just wait, remember, only one studio produces exclusively for HD-DVD and that's Universal. So if you're waiting on Universal titles, then by all means, HD-DVD might be a necessity for you. But the biggest studios like Paramount and Warner produce for both. And studios like Disney and Sony and several smaller studios are exclusive for blu-ray. That's why there seems to be an avalanche of blu-ray titles coming out. They're getting releases from every studio except for Universal.

http://www.homemediaretailing.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?article_id=10136

scottvamp

Yep, I just bought my first couple Blu-Rays. All the reasons that i thought would make it the better format are quickly revealing themselves on the market. The PS3 will prove many wrong...............

Pepi28

Yeah I think Blu-ray will be the winner. One reason being that Dell computers just started using Blu-ray players in their systems. So idf Dell is behind Blu-ray I don't think they are going to want to see HD-DVD win.

goingganzo

got me a ps3 and the revews of the br player are good. just dont output at 40i and up conver to 720p. the edge efect is realey bad from all the de inter laceing

Kelley_Moore

Yet another thread about who will win or who has the upper hand.

Yawn.

With all due respect, do you really think Dell choosing blu-ray will be one of the reasons Sony wins? I don't think so, nor will it be decided by all of us that own either one format or the other. We'd like to think so since most of us laid down some serious coin to get what we have. Perhaps that is why these threads get so heated in forums all across the web. All we are really doing is keeping this High Def industry afloat while this pissing contest continues. One side claims victory because most of the major distribution houses are currently backing blu-ray. The other side came out clearly on top but has hit a sales plateau as of late and now their savior is ****?. The argument goes on from both sides. Both claim to release more than 300 titles this year.

hmmmm

Well, that’s just great for those of us that have one format or the other or both, but it’s not good for the High Def industry in general. You can have Sony win, and release 4000 titles next year, but as long as high quality players are being sold over $200.00, this industry simply will not grow like SD DVD’s have. And if it doesn't grow, we will have to continue paying ridiculous prices for players and movies. I know the difference between SD & HD. But you will not convince the majority of home movie watchers that HD is worth laying down $500 + or more for a player (Please hold replies indicating you found it cheaper).

The first side to come out with a reliable player that sells for under $200.00 that does not require any firmware upgrades would be the winner. Distribution houses\production companies on the opposite side of the reliable player would change formats in heart beat to keep their shareholders happy.

As for me, I consider myself blessed to be able to have one format and will most likely buy the other format sometime this year since there are movies on both sides that I would like to see. Sadly, this format war could be decided in the years to come by new technology making both formats useless.

With that said, we should all try to enjoy what we have for now. For those that are on the fence and don't want to blow money on a potentially doomed format, I suggest you feel good about your decision and invest in a good up-converting DVD player.

Larry Chanin

Kelley_Moore wrote:

Yet another thread about who will win or who has the upper hand.

Yawn.

With all due respect, do you really think Dell choosing blu-ray will be one of the reasons Sony wins? I don't think so, nor will it be decided by all of us that own either one format or the other. We'd like to think so since most of us laid down some serious coin to get what we have. Perhaps that is why these threads get so heated in forums all across the web. All we are really doing is keeping this High Def industry afloat while this pissing contest continues. One side claims victory because most of the major distribution houses are currently backing blu-ray. The other side came out clearly on top but has hit a sales plateau as of late and now their savior is ****?. The argument goes on from both sides. Both claim to release more than 300 titles this year.

hmmmm

Well, that’s just great for those of us that have one format or the other or both, but it’s not good for the High Def industry in general. You can have Sony win, and release 4000 titles next year, but as long as high quality players are being sold over $200.00, this industry simply will not grow like SD DVD’s have. And if it doesn't grow, we will have to continue paying ridiculous prices for players and movies. I know the difference between SD & HD. But you will not convince the majority of home movie watchers that HD is worth laying down $500 + or more for a player (Please hold replies indicating you found it cheaper).

The first side to come out with a reliable player that sells for under $200.00 that does not require any firmware upgrades would be the winner. Distribution houses\production companies on the opposite side of the reliable player would change formats in heart beat to keep their shareholders happy.

As for me, I consider myself blessed to be able to have one format and will most likely buy the other format sometime this year since there are movies on both sides that I would like to see. Sadly, this format war could be decided in the years to come by new technology making both formats useless.

With that said, we should all try to enjoy what we have for now. For those that are on the fence and don't want to blow money on a potentially doomed format, I suggest you feel good about your decision and invest in a good up-converting DVD player.

Hi Kelly,

I strongly agree with every one of the points you've made.

In addition, I certainly wouldn't put too much credence in a "study" sponsored by a company with a vested interest in the outcome.

I've been following this "debate" in a number of forums, and it's interesting to note that folks who are neutral, and own both players, overwhelmingly prefer the performance of the HD DVD players.

Will this matter it the long haul? Maybe, maybe not. It's quite true that early adopters will not materially effect the outcome of this format war, rather the mass market will. We don't have to be Nostradamus to predict the primary factor that influences the mass market do we? It's price. While it's true that the Blu-ray camp currently has more exclusive studios, in the long haul price is the trump card.

The problem with all these "predictions" is people have a tendancy to view the current situation as static. "We're Blu-ray, we have more exclusive studios...we declare ourselves the winner!" "We're HD DVD, we have cheaper, more versatile players...we declare ourselves the winner!"

By the way, I followed your advice and invested in a really good upconverting DVD player. It's called a Toshiba HD-XA2 HD DVD player. It costs half the cost of the high-end upconverting DVD players, performs as well or better, and did I mention that it also provides an exceptional true high definition image?

Larry

Sherardp

I dont care which wins, I have the Panny BR player and the Tosh A1 so Im covered. If HD DVD loses the Tosh player does an outstanding job at upconverting standard DVDs. I'm out of the war, I WIN. HOOT HOOT

cheddar

Umm,

Upconverting DVD players aren't free. So everyone saying just invest in one instead of an HD player is also recommending that people blow their coin on something that may not be very useable in a few years since as people above have stated, most of the HD players are very good at upconversion as well. You can think of that upconverting player a person buys as a nice coupon for an HD player.

I'm not saying not to wait. Tech always gets better and cheaper. That's just the way of things in this hobby. But don't think that by waiting or being on the fence, you also aren't giving up something. These titles in either format come in stellar picture AND sound quality now. And with all the deals around, it's really easy to get blu-ray disks at a fraction of retail (google check out over Christmas, BB 2 for 1, $70 in rebate coupons included with Sony players).

And no, there has never been a history of media players making headway because of cheap hardware. DVD was very expensive when it first came out. And a lot of people, even in Japan, had a first experience with DVD because of the playstation. When stuff comes out, it is always expensive. The format war and competition will only benefit consumers in the end 'cause it forces the hardware vendors to compete on price too instead of just milking all the first movers with crazy prices. The cheap toshiba and ps3 players being a perfect example of prices we probably wouldn't have seen if hardware manufacturers were able to charge us the inflation adjusted prices of the first dvd players.

This war will be decided by software content, pure and simple. That's why I'm willing to give a nod to hd-dvd if they really have cornered the **** market. Although my guess is that **** will eventually make it onto whatever format wins and in the '80s, you certainly couldn't boot up your home computer and download unlimited free **** off the internet. Why would someone want to go to his local rental store and wave to his neighbors as he goes into the hd-dvd **** section? Is seeing all the poor boob job scar lines really worth it? This is something that would definitely find a better market on some sort of hardcore HD **** cable channel or through HD downloads.

So IMHO, the real winner will be decided the same as always, which shelf has the overwhelming choice for HD software titles. And this article makes a point to say that 83% of the big studios will release their titles on blu-ray and only 50% on HD-DVD. And the ratio gets worse for HD-DVD when you throw in the smaller blu-ray exclusive studios like lionsgate. And a ratio of current players at 175,000 hd-dvd to over 1 million for blu-ray (all according to their respective industry backers) just doesn't sound good for HD-DVD.

So could HD-DVD pull a fast one and have **** and cheap hardware come through in the end? Sure. Is it likely based on historical precedent? Not really. And considering HD-DVD came out with the early lead and the cheapest hardware and Blu-Ray software (where all the money is) still outsold HD-DVD by 20% speaks volumes. At the very least, all of the first mover advantage for the HD-DVD format has been lost and they are now playing a catch-up game eventhough they've always had the cheapest hardware around.

And I don't think this thread is heated at all. Just a bunch of people giving their POV on the latest HD format news. Nothin' wrong with that. .

JimBRICK

nice to see the new blurays that are being released are going to be under 800 bucks

cheddar

It's already possible to find the BDP-S1 for around $800 bucks with all the free blu-ray deals.

http://www.polkaudio.com/forums/showthread.php?t=48379

The Samsung is now around $600 in places. Blu-ray player prices are definitely starting to come down. Shouldn't be too long until the stand alones move to more reasonable prices. But the ps3 is already a bargain at $499 if you don't need analog outs or up-conversion. Sony is selling the hardware at a big loss.

Larry Chanin

cheddar wrote:

Umm,

Upconverting DVD players aren't free. So everyone saying just invest in one instead of an HD player is also recommending that people blow their coin on something that may not be very useable in a few years since as people above have stated, most of the HD players are very good at upconversion as well. You can think of that upconverting player a person buys as a nice coupon for an HD player.

I'm not saying not to wait. Tech always gets better and cheaper. That's just the way of things in this hobby. But don't think that by waiting or being on the fence, you also aren't giving up something. These titles in either format come in stellar picture AND sound quality now. And with all the deals around, it's really easy to get blu-ray disks at a fraction of retail (google check out over Christmas, BB 2 for 1, $70 in rebate coupons included with Sony players).

Umm,

I don't know if your reference to "everyone" was including my remarks, but you'll see I didn't recommend buying an upconverting DVD player in lieu of an HD DVD player, but rather buying an HD DVD player that happens to be a very good upconverting DVD player. Isn't it true that Blu-ray players are not backward compatible with DVD discs, nor can they upscale standard DVDs? Standard DVDs will continue to be the dominant media for a long time. So from an average consumer's point of view with an existing DVD collection, doesn't it make a lot of sense to be able to continue to be able to play his/her DVD collection as well and new high definition DVD discs on the same device?

It will work like this. The consumer decides to finally get that nice flat screen HDTV to replace the old analog set. The analog set with its standard DVD player gets moved to a new location in the home and the consumer decides he/she now needs a high definition player to go with the new HDTV. Does he/she buy a much more expensive Blu-ray player and forget about playing his/her existing DVD collection, or buy a more reasonably priced HD DVD player that can play both high definition discs and upscale his/her existing DVD collection? Seems like a no-brainer to me.

I believe this versatility, superior performance, and more attractive pricing shouldn't be underestimated for it's potential to significantly influence the mass market.

cheddar wrote:

The format war and competition will only benefit consumers in the end 'cause it forces the hardware vendors to compete on price too instead of just milking all the first movers with crazy prices. The cheap toshiba and ps3 players being a perfect example of prices we probably wouldn't have seen if hardware manufacturers were able to charge us the inflation adjusted prices of the first dvd players.

Yes, I agree that this initial competition is a good thing for the consumers in terms of pricing. It's certainly a good thing for gamers in terms of Sony subsidizing their PS3s, but I seriously question if average consumers are buying gaming consoles to play high definition movies.

cheddar wrote:

This war will be decided by software content, pure and simple. That's why I'm willing to give a nod to hd-dvd if they really have cornered the **** market. Although my guess is that **** will eventually make it onto whatever format wins and in the '80s, you certainly couldn't boot up your home computer and download unlimited free **** off the internet. Why would someone want to go to his local rental store and wave to his neighbors as he goes into the hd-dvd **** section? Is seeing all the poor boob job scar lines really worth it? This is something that would definitely find a better market on some sort of hardcore HD **** cable channel or through HD downloads.

So IMHO, the real winner will be decided the same as always, which shelf has the overwhelming choice for HD software titles. And this article makes a point to say that 83% of the big studios will release their titles on blu-ray and only 50% on HD-DVD. And the ratio gets worse for HD-DVD when you throw in the smaller blu-ray exclusive studios like lionsgate. And a ratio of current players at 175,000 hd-dvd to over 1 million for blu-ray (all according to their respective industry backers) just doesn't sound good for HD-DVD.

So could HD-DVD pull a fast one and have **** and cheap hardware come through in the end? Sure. Is it likely based on historical precedent? Not really. And considering HD-DVD came out with the early lead and the cheapest hardware and Blu-Ray software (where all the money is) still outsold HD-DVD by 20% speaks volumes. At the very least, all of the first mover advantage for the HD-DVD format has been lost and they are now playing a catch-up game eventhough they've always had the cheapest hardware around.

I agree that having available content is very important. However, if the average consumer is not willing to pay the price of a player it's merely academic IF Blu-ray has more HD titles. With regard to that 20% figure, as I mentioned earlier I don't find it credible when coming from a source that is not impartial.

On the other hand, in reading the current issue of Widescreen Review Blu-ray doesn't have more available content.

Blu-ray Disc Update
Blu-ray disc currently has 65 movie titles available and another 50 additional titles soon...

HD DVD Update
...more than 1.5 million HD DVD discs have shipped since launch. 110 HD DVD titles are available today, with more than 150 expected by year-end.

With regard to pornography, I wouldn't credit the HD DVD camp as being shrewd, just that the Blu-ray camp was incredibly stupid to ignore the potential influence of this market. Yes, today there are other competing delivery methods that exist for pornography that didn't exist during the VHS - Betamax war, but it's all about gaining early momentum and I wouldn't throw away any legal potential market.

Speaking of momentum, with all due respect, I simply don't buy your argument that HD DVD has lost first mover advantage. They have already actually released two second generation players, while all Blu-ray has done is announced that a second generation Samsung player will be released in March. (They really had no choice in coming up with a new player since the first generation player performed rather poorly.)

Because HD DVDs are so similar to DVDs, it will be very easy to ramp up production of HD DVD with minimal "retooling" of existing production capacity. On the other hand Blu-ray production facilities are limited and all their studios have to get in line to get floor time. So the advantage of initially having more Blu-ray exclusive studios is eroded in the all important initial rollout stage. (I believe that it is also cheaper to produce HD DVDs than Blu-ray.)

I'm sure we have no illusions about what motivates studios. Is it their altruistic devotion to a techical standard, or is it their desire to gain market share over other studios? So, if you were a studio waiting in line to release Blu-ray discs and saw that other studios were cashing in by releasing HD DVDs would you "stay the course" with your fellow Blu-ray brethern, and wait for them to steal your production time, or would you decide to become format neutral?


As a consumer here's what I've decided to do to hedge my bets. I've purchased the best HD DVD player that I could. I plan to stop buying standard DVDs and only purchase HD DVDs. I'll probably do this for about a year while I see how the format war plays out. I'm guessing that HD DVDs will easily survive during this period because there will be a number of Blu-ray exclusive defections to a format neutral posture. In which case I will continue to exclusively buy HD DVDs indefinately while still being able to play my old DVD collection on the same player.

In the unlikely event I discover that there are insufficinet HD DVDs being released, I may start buying selected standard movies from Blu-ray exclusive studios, knowing that my player will do an excellent job of upconverting them. I will probably continue in this mode for an other year monitoring how the format war is proceeding.

Finally, in the extremely unlikely event HD DVD proves not to be viable after two years, then and only then would I consider buying a Blu-ray player. By then, regardless of whether HD DVD is viable, I'd probably be buying a new player anyway due to technological obsolesence.:rolleyes:

cheddar wrote:

And I don't think this thread is heated at all. Just a bunch of people giving their POV on the latest HD format news. Nothin' wrong with that. .

Absolutely.

Larry

Larry Chanin

cheddar wrote:

Sony is selling the hardware at a big loss.

No question about that, they are bleeding red ink on PS3s! And with the huge loss they are taking with notebook battery recalls, I seriously doubt they will be in a financial position to indefinately continue to fund an all out marketing assault.

Larry

cheddar

Larry Chanin wrote:

Umm,

I don't know if your reference to "everyone" was including my remarks, but you'll see I didn't recommend buying an upconverting DVD player in lieu of an HD DVD player, but rather buying an HD DVD player that happens to be a very good upconverting DVD player. Isn't it true that Blu-ray players are not backward compatible with DVD discs, nor can they upscale standard DVDs? Standard DVDs will continue to be the dominant media for a long time.

Larry, not trying to accuse you of anything. You seem to have thought this issue out very well. However, it's misinformation like this that propagates through these threads and makes it very difficult to separate the fact from inaccurate rumors. This rumor of blu-ray not being backwards compatible is very very old. The fact is that only the ps3 lacks upconversion. However, all the blu-ray players are backwards compatible with DVDs and, except for the ps3, will upconvert 480p disks. 480p dvds on my console look great. I think blu-ray and standard dvd will be more than enough to satisfy the masses as long as they can get the content they want on the hd format. Although I'm sure there are videophiles who will want to argue the finer points of PQ on upconverting players, from sony to samsung to toshiba, upconversion will be upconversion. A $500-$600 upconverting samsung will be almost the same in the masses eyes as a $500 upconverting toshiba. And at that price, a lot of them will just spring for the ps3 since it's a next generation gaming console. And FYI, I was referencing you in the people that think most HD players do a fine job of upconversion as well. But since you didn't even know about blu-ray's ability to do this, I guess I was a little mistaken there.

Larry Chanin wrote:

I believe this versatility, superior performance, and more attractive pricing shouldn't be underestimated for it's potential to significantly influence the mass market.

In all the ways that matter to the mass market, you've perfectly described the ps3.

Larry Chanin wrote:

Yes, I agree that this initial competition is a good thing for the consumers in terms of pricing. It's certainly a good thing for gamers in terms of Sony subsidizing their PS3s, but I seriously question if average consumers are buying gaming consoles to play high definition movies.

That's why it is a 'trojan horse' in the article. I don't think that the masses are just going to have collective amnesia and just forget that there's a blu-ray player in there. If you've got the coin to get a ps3, you've got the coin to buy all the other necessities of high-def gaming and they just happen to be the same as those for watching blu-ray. So most will be like my friends and after playing the few good games out there at launch will scratch their heads and go, "Wonder what this blu-ray stuff is all about, hey they got a 2 for 1 at best buy, I'm gonna get underworld and black hawk down and try it out."

Larry Chanin wrote:

I agree that having available content is very important. However, if the average consumer is not willing to pay the price of a player it's merely academic IF Blu-ray has more HD titles. With regard to that 20% figure, as I mentioned earlier I don't find it credible when coming from a source that is not impartial.

On the other hand, in reading the current issue of Widescreen Review Blu-ray doesn't have more available content.

We'll just have to agree to disagree here. You believe that people will buy cheap players even if more than half the studios aren't even releasing for the player yet. Paramount, Warner, Sony (MGM, Columbia), 20th Century Fox, Disney, Lionsgate vs. Paramount, Warner, and Universal. I believe that readily available titles will bump the masses to the format just as it's done in the past with VHS and DVD. I certainly wouldn't want players from Shinco taking the lead in showing the masses what my format was all about. If the player breaks after the short warranty period and is otherwise flimsy and full of cheap electronics, people will flock back to the quality players as they inevitably drop in price. And with the lead in studio support, IMHO that's blu-ray.

Also, the 20% just refers to the recent reversal in fortunes for the HD-DVD sales. No doubt before the ps3 came out, HD-DVD had a big lead in all areas. My point is that it is now either almost gone or completely reversed in blu-ray's favor. The following site is a hoot. It tracks amazon.com ranking figures for each format so we can get an idea of what joe internet consumer is buying these days. You will see from the graphs a clear reversal going on as blu-ray catches up to and passes HD-DVD in key categories. Of note:

Of the top 10, the top 8 blu-ray titles are ranked higher than their hd-dvd counterparts with the top selling disk being blu-ray.

The top blu-ray title is the just released and higher priced SAW III while the top hd-dvd title is the week old discounted Slevin.

Blu-ray had a top 100 item on the 12th. Nothing for hd-dvd in the past 30 days.

And although hd-dvd has the most in-stock titles at the moment, blu-ray has the most titles available (197 to 170). That means that blu-ray disks are either sold out or soon to be released. Both a good sign for the blu-ray format.

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

Larry Chanin wrote:

With regard to pornography, I wouldn't credit the HD DVD camp as being shrewd, just that the Blu-ray camp was incredibly stupid to ignore the potential influence of this market. Yes, today there are other competing delivery methods that exist for pornography that didn't exist during the VHS - Betamax war, but it's all about gaining early momentum and I wouldn't throw away any legal potential market.

Speaking of momentum, with all due respect, I simply don't buy your argument that HD DVD has lost first mover advantage. They have already actually released two second generation players, while all Blu-ray has done is announced that a second generation Samsung player will be released in March. (They really had no choice in coming up with a new player since the first generation player performed rather poorly.)

Because HD DVDs are so similar to DVDs, it will be very easy to ramp up production of HD DVD with minimal "retooling" of existing production capacity. On the other hand Blu-ray production facilities are limited and all their studios have to get in line to get floor time. So the advantage of initially having more Blu-ray exclusive studios is eroded in the all important initial rollout stage. (I believe that it is also cheaper to produce HD DVDs than Blu-ray.)

Doesn't this all boil down to momentum? HD-DVD was first out of the gate and had months of no competition to gain a foothold and gain the all important momentum. By their own admission, the half a year of lead time and bad blu-ray press amounted to just 175,000 players sold of ALL types including stand alones, computer drives, and 360 add-ons. That's just plain too few to say that they have all the momentum you seem to be implying above. The ps3s have already sold close to 1 million in the north american market alone. That's the installed base that's driving the amazon numbers and whether or not companies will make the extra investment and continue to support the format. So if just 1 in 5 ps3 owners pick up blu-rays, the worst that can happen is that the two formats are roughly equal. But I don't think the eventual attach rates will be that low. After playing the games, they'll go out and try some disks and be blown away at the improved quality. They'll buy more. Saw III is exactly the type of title I would expect a ps3 owner to pick up. You have to remember that early on, the studios were split 50/50 for exclusivity. Pundits were saying it was a toss-up studio-wise. It's not that the blu-ray camp has moved, it's that the previous hd-dvd supporters have. By all measures except ****, momentum seems to have shifted toward blu-ray. And after looking at the amazon numbers, I can't see how you can come away saying that hd-dvd has a lead in momentum. It's gone. They're just trying to hold on to what they have left as far as software sales go. A single studio just can't make up for the output of Sony, 20th Century, Disney, and Lionsgate. Eventhough Lionsgate doesn't have the library, they certainly have the recent hits of the big studios. So hd-dvd is going to get swamped at least in the short term until they can get their player numbers up over a million. And that's the momentum that's currently working against them.

So here's my solution. I got a ps3 next gen player. The way I see it, that's $250 for the blu-ray player and $250 for the game console. Well, ok, $300 each, but I could have gotten the 20 gig version. That's cheap for the quality of blu-ray player that rivals the $1000 stuff. New audio components this summer should negate any disadvantages from no analog outs since I was planning to upgrade anyways.

Most of the old dvds will take quite a bit of remastering voodoo to take out all the flaws in the original prints. So I'm only really concerned with the new releases. I'll buy the standard versions from universal, no biggie, just one studio and it's certainly not the largest. And I will otherwise enjoy my fully universal player compatible with the other studios.

Works for me. .

cheddar

Larry Chanin wrote:

No question about that, they are bleeding red ink on PS3s! And with the huge loss they are taking with notebook battery recalls, I seriously doubt they will be in a financial position to indefinately continue to fund an all out marketing assault.

Larry

No doubt the production delays and battery recalls hurt. But the longterm effect that's most important is the success of the blu-ray format. And I think that's where the focus has been with the ps3 all along. The licensing fees and movie sales will more than make up for these bumps in the road long term if the format succeeds. I'm sure they're already subsidizing these difficulties even now.

cheddar

Lol, in the time it took me to write the above replies, the just released Guardian overtook Saw as the top HD disk on Amazon.com. Now that's momentum...:cool:.

Edit: Guardian is a blu-ray release too, if you were wondering...

PhantomOG

cheddar wrote:

The format war and competition will only benefit consumers in the end 'cause it forces the hardware vendors to compete on price too instead of just milking all the first movers with crazy prices.

Nope. Even if there was only one high-def format manufacturers would still compete on price in order to gain marketshare. In fact, the presence on two formats actually hinders adoption by the manufacturers since no one wants to be holding the bag if and when one format loses. Same goes for consumers. I guarantee you I (and many others) will not risk purchasing a player and titles for a format that might eventually die and I will be left with no recourse but to repurchase titles in the other format (the losing format player will eventually stop working and there will be no replacements available).

I'm really afraid that the competing formats will screw each other (and high-def in general) and relegate the whole market to a niche as SACD's/DVD-Audio. Sure, we know and want the best picture, but the average Joe with his brand new HDTV pops in a regular Widescreen DVD and it fills up his screen... he's happy. The longer the format war goes on, the less of a chance either will competely "win".

I don't care which format wins. But I won't spend a dime on either format until I know it will be supported for many years to come. The format war is of NO benefit to me.

cheddar

PhantomOG wrote:

Nope. Even if there was only one high-def format manufacturers would still compete on price in order to gain marketshare. In fact, the presence on two formats actually hinders adoption by the manufacturers since no one wants to be holding the bag if and when one format loses.

For most manufacturers, this is true. But for Toshiba and Sony, they will be holding more than the bag if their format goes down in flames. That's why the lowest price players come from these two manufacturers. They are "all-in" so to speak. They've got no option other than to pack features into their players and slash prices as low as they can. And last I checked, Toshiba is still the only manufacturer of stand alone hd-dvd players. All the competition within a format so far is on the blu-ray side. So I guess you're saying that if Toshiba would just throw in the towel, we would be better off...

Edit: Guardian is currently #144 in sales rank on Amazon. These blu-rays seem to be doing just fine even with everybody 'waiting' on the format. This should only improve as more ps3s move out the door and people finish playing the few release gaming titles and notice the flood of blu-ray titles out there. So it seems that there are fewer people all the time who, "will not risk purchasing a player and titles for a format that might eventually die." The actual data out there seems to go against what you're saying.

cheddar

Oops,

Saw is now #118. One of these disks could pop up into the top 100. These things seem to be flying off the shelves at Amazon...:D

Kelley_Moore

Cheddar –

Wow... those are some responses you have. They are almost as long as watching the movie "The English Patient." You seem to have a lot invested in the success of Blu-ray. Perhaps, you took out a home equity loan and went “all in” on Sony stock or maybe its just pride. Whatever the case may be, it’s all good. Any good hobby has passionate people involved in it and you have definitely displayed that so my hats off to you.

I do have a question… If I told you that I would never, ever buy Sony…. Batteries, what would your response be? I’m just curious to find out what drives your passion for Sony. It is Sony, or is it just blu-ray?

PhantomOG

rah rah rah! PS3 RUL3Z!! :rolleyes:

Yeah... these thinly veiled cheerleading comments are pretty lame.

But if it helps one side die quicker I guess its for the greater good.

cheddar

Can't win with data and logic, attack the messenger. Thought this was a friendly conversation until all the sarcasm showed up. I'm actually an xbox fan. I've never owned a playstation until now and bought a 360 first. What drives my passion is when people make comments that are unsupported by good evidence. For now, that seems to be on the anti-sony side. Not sure what drives that. I'd be far more interested to know why people seem to pile on the anti-sony bandwagon with misinformation and 'personal' observations not grounded in real national sales figures. Is it 'cause it's a Japanese company? I always thought microsoft was the evil empire. Go figure :rolleyes:.

I haven't been wrong in any of my predictions yet, but people keep trying to label me a fanboy for nothing more than logical deductions from good data mined from the internet. When the attacks get personal, I know my arguments are making sense .

Edit: For an example of the kind of misinformation and outright lies about sony's products, checkout this exchange I just had with powerlord:

http://www.polkaudio.com/forums/showthread.php?t=36322

Not the sharpest knife in the microsoft camp. Like I said, I'm not so much passionate about sony, just trying to get the right information out there so people can make informed purchasing decisions.

BIZILL

viva hd-dvd!!! god bless my camp!

PhantomOG

Both Sony and Toshiba/M$ screwed the entire consumer base when they couldn't get their $hit together years ago. Both camps suck for putting the consumers through this war in the first place.

If I wasn't such a cheapskate I guess I wouldn't care. But the fact is both of these technologies were being mulled over 4 years ago and if the mega-corps like Sony/Toshiba/M$ had been a little smarter we wouldn't be in this mess right now. We'd have more companies making players by now for cheaper prices, with more studios willing to put out movies on a unified format. But nope, they couldn't compromise and now we are left with current situation.

cheddar

BIZILL wrote:

viva hd-dvd!!! god bless my camp!

Now loyalty is something I can respect...:D.

BIZILL

i've been keeping up on the battle over at avs. more battles to be had over there. reluctantly, and regrettably, i feel both formats will survive. and we consumers get poo'ed on by the industry.

cheddar

PhantomOG wrote:

Both Sony and Toshiba/M$ screwed the entire consumer base when they couldn't get their $hit together years ago. Both camps suck for putting the consumers through this war in the first place.

If I wasn't such a cheapskate I guess I wouldn't care. But the fact is both of these technologies were being mulled over 4 years ago and if the mega-corps like Sony/Toshiba/M$ had been a little smarter we wouldn't be in this mess right now. We'd have more companies making players by now for cheaper prices, with more studios willing to put out movies on a unified format. But nope, they couldn't compromise and now we are left with current situation.

I understand your frustration. The first HDTVs I saw were in Japan over a decade ago when I went there fresh out of college. They were beautiful then as they are now. But the idiots coming up with national standards made sure that we wouldn't see hdtvs in the US consumer space until the last couple of years. It sucks, but it does seem to be the way of things. We might have had some decent players a little earlier, but it's hard to imagine how we could have gotten really good stuff without the hdmi 1.3 standard being worked out and an installed base of HDTVs.

But you can think of us as being screwed, or like me, put a positive spin on things and just say there's a convergence of hdmi 1.3 audio components, hdtvs, and hd players that will be available by next Christmas breathing new life into one of my favorite hobbies, home theater. Like I said, I understand the frustration, but to date, all I've bought is a $600 ps3 and I'm already enjoying the fruits of the new tech. Yeah, $600 really stung, but not replacing my 3803 for so long is going to finally pay off when I score a new pre/pro when they come out.

Yeah, I know AVS has more commentary, but I like the company here at polk better as people have steered me in the right direction more than once. Just adding what I know to return the favor.

PhantomOG

let's beat this dead horse some more

HD DVD vs. Blu-ray: Netflix says no winner yet

Monster Jam

I already got burnt big-time with my Rear-Projection 1080i monster TV that features DVI connections. I aint getting burned on HD.

See that fence? I'll be sitting on it until one format dies. By that time, I might be downloading my content.

cheddar

You might want to prepare for a bad case of fence butt, 'cause it might take a while .

The lesson I learned from this whole thing is always stay just a bit behind the curve, even if you want to be a first mover. 6 mo. to a year is just about right. I didn't get an hdtv until 1080p came out. And I didn't get a player until hdmi 1.3. And I'm still waiting on my pre/pro upgrade for the same reason. I think it's saved my bacon as far as buyer's remorse...:D.

cheddar

PhantomOG wrote:

let's beat this dead horse some more

HD DVD vs. Blu-ray: Netflix says no winner yet

Okay, what the heck, let's throw some wacks at the dead horse.

I called Netflix (NFLX) to see what kind of trends the subscription movie rental service is seeing in HD movies – since I'd be more likely to use that service for HD movies than to buy my favorite films all over again. Spokesman Steve Swasey said the numbers are still too low, so he can't say one has an edge.

It would have been nice if he'd just said which one has the highest recent rental rates. But I think he just punted the question. He could be saying that the vast majority of their business is still done in standard DVDs so he can't say until one starts giving DVDs some competition. Who knows? I think the amazon numbers are far more revealing and still back up the only claim I'm making along these lines, that HD-DVD has lost all its first mover advantage. The top ten blu-rays are still outselling the top ten hd-dvds. And the number of blu-ray titles available for purchase still outnumber hd-dvd by 201 to 173.

I'm not declaring a winner, just showing people that hd-dvd is no longer the leader in software sales from its early days as a first mover...

People should be making buying decisions knowing that blu-ray has a lot of momentum because of the reversal of software situation. If people still want to wait, I can completely understand. But hd-dvd is sure looking a lot riskier than it did at launch and when blu-ray got all the bad press.

Horse is looking pretty beat...:o.

PhantomOG

If DVD titles' Amazon ranking number points to the demise of HD-DVD, what does it mean that there are 2 HD-DVD players with higher ranking numbers than the first Blu-Ray player?

Anywhoo, as I said before screw both sides. Costly punishment dealt out by both sides hurts the industry as a whole. Sony and Toshiba were presented an Ultimatum Game years ago... they both failed to make the correct decisions and everyone else has to pay for it now as well.