Wow expensive! Blu-ray

unc2701

http://theinquirer.net/?article=30931

You're right about the $900- the article was way outdated. Looks like $500 is more in line with current rumours, which would also make it basically at-cost.

Anyhow, expect some seppuku from some sony exec's if they don't get the PS3 out in time for Christmas.

Edit: Merril lynch puts cost at around $800 (but drop to around $320 after 3 years), so anything less on the street will be at a loss:
http://rsch1.ml.com/9093/24013/ds/276873_0.PDF

Kris Siegel

sickicw wrote:

- The ps3 will not cost the consumer $900

This is probably true. Sony has released several press releases stating the PS3 would not cost below $599 when it is released. It's still possible for it to end up at $900 but I highly doubt it, especially if Sony wants to still be in the gaming market.

sickicw wrote:

- The studios are not stupid. They understand the market and that blu-ray will take a little longer to get started. This temporary momentum will not last too long. The age of 1080p movies are just about to get started, and blu-ray will be in the lead.

Why would Blu-Ray be in the lead? Again, the only advantage to Blu-Ray is the higher capacity. Both formats will be able to play movies at 1080p but there are almost no 1080p capable TVs so it doesn't really matter at this point anyway.

I am not sure you can dismiss the mementum of HD-DVD as it will have at least a 6 month head start. Many will purchase HD-DVD players and HD-DVDs. When Blu-Ray comes out, it'll be more expensive than HD-DVD players. I can't see why anyone would really go for the Blu-Ray player and discs unless they already have a PS3 (which will be considerably more expensive than its rivals).

I am going to wait before purchasing any HD-DVDs and Blu-Ray discs to see who comes out on top so I can buy into that technology. I honestly don't care which one wins as both have the same capabilities. I just don't see how HD-DVD won't win at this point.

Ron-P

Funny, on other forums people say HD-DVD will win and Blu-ray will die.

Once Blu-ray hits the $500 threshold, I'm in. I love this hi-def dvd stuff too much to wait.

drew spelts

I understand exactly what made BETA the superior format but I am fairly young and the war was prety well over by the time our family got a VCR player. Why on earth did VHS kick BETA's face in so badly. I just dont know what could have happened for an inferior product to take the market by storm.

Thanks, Drew

danger boy

I think Beta died because Sony didn't want to partner with other giant electronics companies.. VHS had support from most of the major players in home electronics at the time.. they basically squeezed Sony Betamax out of the market.

It was Sony's own greed that killed the superior audio and video format. Sometimes you win, and sometimes you get punched in the gut, and get the wind knocked out of ya.

unc2701

The biggest factor was that VHS had an intial recording time of 3 hours, vs Beta's 60 minutes. Momentum to VHS. As video sales & rentals started, they had the upper hand and soon began to dominate the rental market. At that point VHS had effectively won.

One thing to keep in mind, though. Sony made more money on Beta than any of its competitors on VHS and dominated pro/broadcast studios for years.

So the lesson here is that Blu-ray could vry well lose the home High-def player wars, but its status as a truly next gen technology could set Sony up to make more money in the long run.

sickicw

Kris Siegel wrote:

Why would Blu-Ray be in the lead? Again, the only advantage to Blu-Ray is the higher capacity. Both formats will be able to play movies at 1080p but there are almost no 1080p capable TVs so it doesn't really matter at this point anyway.

Blu-Ray will be in the lead because all of the blu-ray players can output 1080p at 60hz. At this time there is no hd-dvd player that can do this (they only do 1080i). Yes, the hd-dvd disks hold enough data for this, but the players do not support it. This is probably the reason the blu-ray players are more expensive. When the hd-dvd camp finally gets a player that can support it, it will cost about as much as a blu-ray player.

Blu-ray players are out in may or june.
1080p tvs with 1080p hdmi inputs are out june or july.
And at this point in time, it does matter to me. I will wait until the fall and pick up a new tv and blu-ray player.

Ron-P

Blu-Ray will be in the lead because all of the blu-ray players can output 1080p at 60hz.

All HD-DVD titles are 1080p so on the software side they're equally matched. This first gen A1 does only output at 1080i but I would guess that by 2nd gen or 3rd they'll be outputting 1080p and I highly doubt they'll be $1k. Your reason why blu-ray will lead doesn't hold much water.

Besides, are there even any displays that can accept a 1080p feed? How many people have one that can take advantage of that this year to justify paying twice as much over HD-DVD? Not many I'd guess.

unc2701

sickicw wrote:

Blu-Ray will be in the lead because all of the blu-ray players can output 1080p at 60hz. At this time there is no hd-dvd player that can do this (they only do 1080i). Yes, the hd-dvd disks hold enough data for this, but the players do not support it. This is probably the reason the blu-ray players are more expensive. When the hd-dvd camp finally gets a player that can support it, it will cost about as much as a blu-ray player.

Only reason why the current batch of HD-DVD players don't have 1080p is that the HDMI standard wasn't complete in time. All the HD-DVD discs are coming out 1080p native, and the next gen players will support 1080p. Next gen=cheaper, despite the 1080p costs.

But, I still think that doesn't matter- I'm still sticking with it all hinging on PS3 succeeding.

Really, I want Blu-ray to win. It's better, not question. But that's not the way the world works.

Ron-P

It's better, not question

How?

sickicw

I guess you didn't understand my post. I'll try to break it down a bit more. I, personally, am looking for a new tv with 1080p inputs. Every major tv maker will have one out this year. Sony will have theirs out in june or july (so that they can demo the blu-ray player on them). I also want a high definition disk player. Now, I’m not going to buy a hd-dvd player because a blu-ray player outputs at twice the resolution. If I decide to wait for hd-dvd to build a player that supports this (and I have no idea when this will be), I might as well wait 6 months and pick up a ps3. By the time 1080p hd-dvds come out there should be a cheap blu-ray player.

Now you asked how many people have displays that can accept a 1080p feed? I would guess not too many. But ask yourself why would people want to buy a product that is going to be obsolete in one month? $500 - $700 for something that is cutting edge for one month? No thank you. I think it is rather funny that anyone would shell out $500+ to buy the current hd-dvd players that won’t even be much better than the current hd-broadcast signals. Anyway, Im done on this subject. I already made my decision to wait for the ps3 to come out.

unc2701

All things like cost and studio backing aside, blu-ray has higher throughput and more space. The only technological advantage for HD-DVD is that the discs are supposed to be more durable.

drew spelts

Are they a little more durable because they do not have as much info written in such tiny space. Like when a piece of dust sticks to the laser reading side could this cause a BIG glitch because it is reading an area smaller than the spec of dust?

Emlyn

drew spelts wrote:

Are they a little more durable because they do not have as much info written in such tiny space. Like when a piece of dust sticks to the laser reading side could this cause a BIG glitch because it is reading an area smaller than the spec of dust?

Blu-ray discs will actually be more durable than HD-DVD's, current DVD's and CD's thanks to TDK's (a backer of Blu-ray) development of a new coating system. Apparently, the coating has been well tested and is capable of withstanding attempts to scratch a disc with a screwdriver. There were strong concerns early on about Blu-ray discs because the initial design would have required the use of a protective caddy with each disc because the data layer is so much closer to the surface of the disc than with DVD, CD, or HD-DVD.

Overall, it seems Blu-ray may be more expensive initially. As far as which format proves to be more successful, my money would be on Blu-ray because of the companies backing it.

Lsi9

They will both thrive like SACD and DVD-Audio with the advent of universal HD players coming in fall-1stQ 2007, I'll wait for one of those.

Ron-P

universal HD players coming in fall-1stQ 2007

Got a link for that.

I want to pick up a Blu-ray machine but if one is coming that soon I'll try and wait. From what I last heard licencing is a huge issue and we won't see a univeral player for a very long time.

Kris Siegel

sickicw wrote:

I guess you didn't understand my post. I'll try to break it down a bit more. I, personally, am looking for a new tv with 1080p inputs. Every major tv maker will have one out this year. Sony will have theirs out in june or july (so that they can demo the blu-ray player on them). I also want a high definition disk player. Now, I’m not going to buy a hd-dvd player because a blu-ray player outputs at twice the resolution. If I decide to wait for hd-dvd to build a player that supports this (and I have no idea when this will be), I might as well wait 6 months and pick up a ps3. By the time 1080p hd-dvds come out there should be a cheap blu-ray player.

HD DVDs are already out. Like previously mentioned, you will see HD-DVD players outputting at 1080p within a few months, and they will be cheaper than Blu-Ray because Blu-Ray is more expensive to produce (the discs and the optical drives).

You will probably see HD DVD players with 1080p outputs before you even see any Blu-Ray players (the first Blu-Ray player will most likely be Samsung's and that's about 3 months away from release after being pushed back numerous times). Also, a Samsung player is coming out that can play both HD DVD and Blu-Ray, both outputting at 1080p. Sounds like a safer buy to me but it's expected to be very expensive.

Also, I wouldn't expect a cheap Blu-Ray player by the time the PS3 comes out. The PS3, Sony mentioned in several press releases, won't be lower than $500 and is expected to be priced around $599 to $699. Most Blu-Ray players will be released about 3 months before the PS3 (3 months from now) and are expected to cost around $1,000. There is no way a company can cust manufacturing costs to make a "cheap" Blu-Ray player by the time the PS3 comes out. It's just not possible.

sickicw wrote:

Now you asked how many people have displays that can accept a 1080p feed? I would guess not too many. But ask yourself why would people want to buy a product that is going to be obsolete in one month? $500 - $700 for something that is cutting edge for one month? No thank you. I think it is rather funny that anyone would shell out $500+ to buy the current hd-dvd players that won’t even be much better than the current hd-broadcast signals. Anyway, Im done on this subject. I already made my decision to wait for the ps3 to come out.

It's a good idea to wait for the PS3 to come out before making any decisions as it'll probably be the deciding factor in Blu-Ray's fate, but I wouldn't call 1080i "obsolete". All HD broadcasts are either in 720p or 1080i and I don't think we'll be seeing 1080p broadcasts for years. 1080i will last a long time.

Ron-P

universal HD players coming in fall-1stQ 2007

Doesn't look like it.

http://www.polkaudio.com/forums/showthread.php?t=40304

iworkfortweeter

hd dvd's are stupid. *shrug.* just so much unneeded controversy over such a trivial thing...

Ron-P

If they won't work together to come up with one format I highly doubt they give up their licensing for someone else to come up with a combo player.

wallstreet

I'm on the sidelines until the format wars are over. Anyone buying one over the other at this point has money to burn. You'll know when the format wars are over when one format overtakes the ubiquitous DVD at Blockbuster.