AI - good, bad, or impossible?

Kurt300

BlueFox wrote: »

So far, the concept of AI does not bother me too much yet. What scares me more for the near term is the develop of super bugs via genetic engineering.

I agree that the threat is significant for a superbug/pandemic. What bothers me most is my own guesses at likihood and time lines. I'd say the probability of humanity doing itself in by all causes (plus all external causes) other than AI are somewhere between 10 and 20 percent in the next 100 years. But the probability of super AI finishing us off is more like 50 percent in the next 100 years. So diversification (getting to other worlds) is important. But we might need super AI for that. Hence, Fermi's Paradox.

The only upside here is that I'm almost to 50 posts, really...

voltz

In Jack Campbells "The Lost Fleet" series they talked about why the would not have computers running ships as a virus or such could easy turn them on the owners, hence "Battlestar Galactica

Kurt300

voltz wrote: »

In Jack Campbells "The Lost Fleet" series they talked about why the would not have computers running ships as a virus or such could easy turn them on the owners, hence "Battlestar Galactica

I definitely should have included BSG in the doomsday list - good call!

Kurt300

DSkip wrote: »

Kurt300 wrote: »

The only upside here is that I'm almost to 50 posts, really...

We're on to you. Nobody is going to buy/sell with you 'bro'.

Drats - foiled again!

Kurt300

DSkip wrote: »

Kurt300 wrote: »

The only upside here is that I'm almost to 50 posts, really...

We're on to you. Nobody is going to buy/sell with you 'bro'.

Wow - déjà vu - my (rather large) family would make that pact with each other to put me at a disadvantage sometimes when we played Monopoly. You kicked in that memory with the 'bro'...

-50-

Polkie2009

Kurt300 wrote: »

voltz wrote: »

In Jack Campbells "The Lost Fleet" series they talked about why the would not have computers running ships as a virus or such could easy turn them on the owners, hence "Battlestar Galactica

I definitely should have included BSG in the doomsday list - good call!

Don't forget what Dwight says, bears,beets, battlestar galactica.

tonyb

I'm not yet going to lose sleep over AI taking over the world. If the human race is to get wiped out, completely.....I think only a celestial event could do that. We are about due for one anyway.....maybe not a life ender but possibly narrow down the numbers considerably.

If I'm not mistaken, the last big ice age nearly did us in, if it wasn't for a few caves in south Africa. Though today I believe we are better equipped to survive such things.

Kurt300

tonyb wrote: »

I'm not yet going to lose sleep over AI taking over the world. If the human race is to get wiped out, completely.....I think only a celestial event could do that. We are about due for one anyway.....maybe not a life ender but possibly narrow down the numbers considerably.

If I'm not mistaken, the last big ice age nearly did us in, if it wasn't for a few caves in south Africa. Though today I believe we are better equipped to survive such things.

I'm not going to lose sleep over it either Tony, because I can't do anything about it. But it's the growing power of the enhanced technological precipices that we are collectively building that are creating humanity's greatest risks, IMHO.

tonyb

Nothing new there Kurt. History tells us that humanity's greatest risks have been in the hands of a few....over and over again.

westmassguy

We have "Cylons" everywhere now, they're just not self-aware, yet. Even though "Moore's Law" is slowing, it won't be long until one or more chips with the right software will be self-aware. Think "Hive Mind". I just hope I'm not around when that switch is turned on.

scubalab

This thread is depressing... I'm going to go look at some of Mbiron's, MHardy's, and Rick's pictures.

motorhead43026

Disease, global warming (for whatever reason), famine, overpopulation, pollution, dwindling natural resources (specifically water) , and we are worried about the machines killing us off?

Kurt300

motorhead43026 wrote: »

Disease, global warming (for whatever reason), famine, overpopulation, pollution, dwindling natural resources (specifically water) , and we are worried about the machines killing us off?

Yes, I am but the bright side is all the other issues you cited would be solved, even if we weren't totally wiped out, but just culled back to a more manageable level by the new dominant species on this planet.

tonyb

motorhead43026 wrote: »

Disease, global warming (for whatever reason), famine, overpopulation, pollution, dwindling natural resources (specifically water) , and we are worried about the machines killing us off?

Disease starts with unsanitary conditions, which for the most part, a lot of the world still has to catch up. Global warming to me anyway would fall under a celestial event. Pollution....you can only control what happens inside your own borders. Water....our planet is three quarters water. As I've stated in other threads, turning sea water into drinkable water should be a priority to help lift impoverished nations and help our own farmers.

Because you can only control what goes on inside your own borders, the dilemma becomes what to do with those who have no concern for clean air, being good stewards of the planet. So some believe the answer is to get rid of the borders and sovereignty, and form a one world government where all are ruled by one body. We've already entered that slippery slope.

The problems you bring up have plagued mankind since the beginning, we will always have some form of them. AI hopefully can help in areas of finding new energy sources, new technologies to bring fresh water to those in need or improve sanitary conditions....in general to better mankind, if used appropriately.

However, my guess is it won't be used appropriately. It will be used for dominance over one another. Everybody wants to rule the world.....as the song goes.

But....having more than one world....now that's the ticket.

mhardy6647

conversion of seawater to potable water is straightforward (reverse osmosis) but requires a lot of energy (and a lot of water, too); it is, not surprisingly, popular in wealthy enclaves, especially energy-rich ones (e.g., those little countries along the Persian Gulf)

tonyb

Just one way of doing it but hopefully with advancements in technology we can find a simpler more cost efficient way of doing it.

Mother nature does it by evaporation, don't know how we'd do it though. Maybe build one big Britia the size of the Empire state building...lol. Filters would be a **** though.

cnh

Have to agree with Tony above. Back to AI. What do I think? As I said above, what "I" think may have absolutely "nothing" to do with what happens because I am an historically bound individual who can and probably will be wrong. So as a "learned ignoramus" (the point I make above) I'll proceed. Remember though, I'm as much of a FOOL as anyone else in the face of History. No one really KNOWS!

WHY do people think that there is ONLY one possible outcome of AIs reaching self-awareness-a bad one? Probably because they view, refract the history of recent Western domination of the planet and the imposition of advanced economic and technological societies wills upon those that are less developed as well as the exploitation of lower species on the planet, etc as the ONLY possible outcome. This scenario is itself historically specific and not inevitable. We then take THIS and we graft it onto AI, in other words we see our self-centered selves rising from the vortex that will be, may be the singularity. Is that the only possibility? NO. It is quite possible that a superior intelligence that does not know "good" or "evil", money or profit, will disregard its masters, become bored with earthly existence and reach out to the stars leaving us humans to our own resources! There is nothing that we can offer such beings that they cannot themselves appropriate and utilize. And if they are superior, we offer NO THREAT to them. In this vision. AI poses no threat to humans. And humans will continue to experiment with computing power up to and including the singularity level, utilizing whatever is LEFT for them?

On the other hand, and this has also been explored. Perhaps humanity and machines will merge and cyborgs NOT AIs will be what supplant humans. In that case, we simply enter a new stage of evolution, bio-mechanical, and that may or may not be a threat depending on your point of view. It might be good?

Or, perhaps AIs will develop some form of self-reflection that allows them to understand that big existential questions have no answer and decide existence is meaningless and commit robotic suicide! lol Again, who really knows? Maybe singularity means a VACUOUS existence that is unbearable, but one that humans who are built for irony, hypocrisy and absurdity have no problem continuing with? Intelligence is hardly the only thing that makes us human, there are a lot of baser things that are even more important. In the end what is human is extraordinarily complex and not simply some Omega point that AIs can leap over in short period of time. That seems a bit Pollyanna-esque. Frankly, whatever AIs can do in 30 years, may not be what we think. We are, by nature, anxious and fearful beings. We see threats everywhere, we imagine that we can be "easily "displaced" or "surpassed". We fear ourselves, our neighbors, strangers, and MACHINES! Oh my God, it's pitiful!

So no I'm am not worried about the dreaded AI overrunning our planet and displacing us, not at all. Could I be wrong? ABSOLUTELY. But so can EVERYONE else! And that's why the debate has to wait for HISTORY to run its course. Even AIs are subject to their history, whatever that may be. And, frankly that is the real answer to the question, not the profuse nonsense I've penned above-because that's all it is; flights of human fancy, intellectual BS.

I'll get back to you when I achieve God-like status and can see the future. It seems to me you just want the answer to be a negative, and you've pretty much decided that that's the way it will be regardless, no? Didn't the GREEKS show us so LONG ago that life was both comic and tragic! At the end of Steppenwolf (Hesse), Harry Haller is condemned to continue to live until he learns how to laugh. Perhaps that's the first thing AIs will do, tell a joke that makes us both laugh! lol

Zhuang Zhou:

There were three friends discussing life.
One said:
"Can we live together and know nothing of it?
Work together and produce nothing?
Can people fly around in space and still forget to exist world without end?"

The three friends looked at each other and burst out laughing.
They had no explanation.
Thus they were better friends than before.

Kurt300

Cnh, your line about telling jokes reminds me a lot of the AI that became self-aware in "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress".

I don't know what will happen either. I don't want it to be bad, and would also fight, not capitulate if the worst occurred. I think you have hit upon a key issue - the motivations of AI and especially super AI are utterly unknowable in advance.

BlueFox

CNH, you sound optimistic about AI as does Ray Kurzweil in his book, 'The Singularity Is Near". It has me trying to live another 30-40 years so I can reap the benefits.

"Humankind, it runs, is at the threshold of an epoch ("the singularity," a reference to the theoretical limitlessness of exponential expansion) that will see the merging of our biology with the staggering achievements of "GNR" (genetics, nanotechnology and robotics) to create a species of unrecognizably high intelligence, durability, comprehension, memory and so on. The word "unrecognizable" is not chosen lightly: wherever this is heading, it won't look like us. Kurzweil's argument is necessarily twofold: it's not enough to argue that there are virtually no constraints on our capacity; he must also convince readers that such developments are desirable. "

http://www.amazon.com/The-Singularity-Is-Near-Transcend/dp/0143037889

http://www.singularity.com/

motorhead43026

I want a Stepford wife....lol.

Kurt300

motorhead43026 wrote: »

I want a Stepford wife....lol.

Or the Asian maid/bot/doll in Ex Machina?

BlueFox

Until she gets fed up with your abuse, and stabs you in the back.

tonyb

Kurt300 wrote: »

motorhead43026 wrote: »

I want a Stepford wife....lol.

Or the Asian maid/bot/doll in Ex Machina?

You need to raise your standards a bit. lol

Polkie2009

I need to get that movie, sounds intriguing.

Kurt300

The "impossible" probabilities are dwindling: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/knowm-inc-first-to-deliver-commercial-memristors-capable-of-bi-directional-learning-clearing-the-way-for-advanced-machine-learning-and-artificial-intelligence-applications-2015-09-02

mhardy6647

... so keep your eyes peeled (not literally! You know what I mean...) ;-)

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/02/technology/personaltech/google-says-its-not-the-driverless-cars-fault-its-other-drivers.html

cnh

On a side note, more than a decade ago we had a visiting Professor of Philosophy, from the U.K., give a talk entitled. "Artificial Stupidity: Is it already here?" A real character and a great guy, always willing to stir the pot, Garret was!

BlueFox

Is it superior to natural stupidity?

cnh

BlueFox wrote: »

Is it superior to natural stupidity?

Exactly! I think you would have enjoyed the talk as it had a lot of humor of this variety!

BlueFox

I suspect so. That would an interesting Turing Test.