3d tv.. or buy lcd tv?

Bernal

AeR0 wrote: »

what should i do wait for these new 3d tvs to come out or should i just get myself a 120hz or 240hz lcd tv now??


any input?

http://gizmodo.com/5440665/lgs-infinia-le9500-is-a-3d+ready-led-tv-with-picture+frame-depth

MANSKITO

cheddar wrote: »

This is sort of like saying if the government forced Intel to stop all production and sales, but you could have a starter AMD computer for almost free and a new AMD computer would be 3x as powerful, that AMD would grow at the same pace no matter if Intel was still in the market or not. If that's what you really believe, I suppose we'll just have to agree to disagree. It was an unprecedented gift to a fledgling technology courtesy of our federal government. I'm surprised you think it had so little impact. If Intel stayed in the market even with slower chips, but sold them cheaper, or marketed them differently, they could have done a lot to muck up the transition to AMD. Just like analog TVs would have done if there wasn't any penalty for continuing to buy and use them...

I m confused as to what you are saying? what do you mean transition to AMD?

(I currently am running a phenom II quad core because it was the best chip at the time for the money not because it was the fastest, Core I7 is the fastest, there are many reasons to buy chips from AMD or intel.)

anhchungdoan

Get the Samsung LED UN55B6000 to pleasure your eyes. The 3d stuff is still along way to go.

cnh

I think a simple question to ask here is what is 'your' socio-economic bracket because such optimism is not coming from the 'masses' in American society who can barely hang onto a good job at this point.

You speak as though you either live in an economic vacuum or have no contact with the common man/woman. The Digital Transition in TV was a real SCARE to a lot of the American public...a vast majority..they were afraid the Gov't was going to take away their TV or FORCE them to buy HDTVs...hence the MASSIVE multi-million dollar subsidies for converter boxes. A lot of the recent boom in HDTV sales is do to overproduction and drastic price drops which are actually LOSING money for most manufacturers because the margins are next to nothing...and this is the result of the Economic crisis continuing--it is NOT a sign of 'recovery'!

Also, for those of us who live in areas of the country that WILL NOT HAVE FIBER OPTIC upgrades for many years...most of what you're talking about is absolutely irrelevant and there is NO market for that here!

So what wonderland are you living in?? Some affluent suburb in Connecticut, Jersey or California, Chicago perhaps? I'm just curious because I find too much optimism above...especially in this current market.

And while we're speaking do you know what the average DSL speed is for Beijing....I have it and it's about 2.5 mbs/second.....does that sound like its ready for your techno revolution.

These things will happen but a lot slower than ANYONE can currently imagine because we are in an unprecedented slow down with regards to selling NEW tech..

I will even go so far as to predict that in the future don't expect to see AVR upgrades EVERY year but rather every 2 years because sales will be abysmal in the coming year!!

cnh

MANSKITO

my socio-economic class. I work at Ci-Cis pizza make sub 10k a year.

Go full time to college.

Mom makes maybe 60k year if I had to guess. (don't have a dad any more)

We get 6.0Mbs (according to http://speedtest.net/)

I just happen to have great faith in the future.( because from the perspective of a child of the 90s tech and its rapid advancement is all i know)

Also the average american is better off then most give them credit for.

The middle class life style contrary to what some say is actually super ultra awesome.

All my gear is paid for by Ci-Cis pizza checks (maybe 100-200 every two weeks depending on how many hours i get)

I live in the deep south (south Carolina) so ya you could say high speed internet was slow to make its way here.

(only old people, the AARP, red necks, and people who have sub average IQs wear scared by the digital transition AKA the government lol jk.)

Also remember the nature of exponential change, it gets faster as time progress. If you look at an exponential graph the first section of the graph looks linear and then it shoots straight upward. I believe that currently we are at or close too the turning point (the knee of the graph) wear the progress of tech will be mind blowing in the near future compared to what has happened in the past.

MANSKITO

on a side note we pay $40 a month for our ISP which is AT&T. And my mom me and my twin brother live in a 120k house (3 bed rooms) And we have 2 cars a 1991 nissan quest van and a 2005 ford escape.

I'm VERY WELL GROUNDED.

mom works for blue cross blue shield http://southcarolinablues.com/

She a marketing manager.

and the current average for the united states is 7.43Mbs your ISP must suck ****.

MANSKITO

P.P.S if you want to street view my house, my address is 1531 willow creek ln 29212 columbia SC.

http://maps.google.com/

Only real thing you had right was i live in a suburb (which any one could guess because the majority of people live in suburbs or urban areas lol :P ) but it is certainly not affluent. but like others have said I think we agree more then we both believe.

cheddar

MANSKITO wrote: »

I m confused as to what you are saying? what do you mean transition to AMD?

(I currently am running a phenom II quad core because it was the best chip at the time for the money not because it was the fastest, Core I7 is the fastest, there are many reasons to buy chips from AMD or intel.)

It's just a FICTIONAL analogy. Intel (Analog TV almost everyone uses). AMD (Digital HDTV with a fictional AMD faster chip that will help it gain market share). Government comes along and basically shuts down the much larger Intel so the much smaller AMD can rapidly take over the market. The government just doesn't do things like shut down an entire product industry to give a new technology a chance, EXCEPT for analog TV by shutting down their only over the air method of getting content. That's a once in a generation event that you don't seem to think made any difference in the HDTV market. And IMO, it is the single most important event that drove HDTV sales during the past two years. The free marketing alone as every analog channel contained public bulletin after public bulletin about the impending switchover was priceless. If you can't see how it was a game changer for the HDTV market by now, I'm afraid we'll just have to agree to disagree.

A similar event will not happen for things like 3d or your 8k stuff. So I would expect that combined with buyer fatigue and the poor economy, any transition to these new features will be far more gradual than the last two years for general HDTV sales. IMO, just buy a good basic set at a nice price, sit back and enjoy it, and buy a 3d set only IF the tech takes off. You've got some time.

MANSKITO

cheddar wrote: »

It's just a fictional analogy. Intel (Analog TV almost everyone uses). AMD (Digital HDTV with a fictional faster chip that will help it gain market share). Government comes along and basically shuts down the much larger Intel so the much smaller AMD can rapidly take over the market. The government just doesn't do things like shut down an entire thriving product industry to give a new technology a chance, EXCEPT for analog TV by shutting down their only over the air method of getting content. That's a once in a generation event that you don't seem to think made any difference in the HDTV market. If you can't see how by now, I'm afraid we'll just have to agree to disagree.

Ah ok, No I understand that it made a difference. But I think you are right to "agree to disagree" because untill some one invents the crystal ball we can't know what the future holds.

But on that note I was not really arguing so much as i thought it was an intresting topic to put my 2 cents on.

I do understand what you are saying, basicly what I'm getting is your saying I m underestimating the complexity of the task, realisticly one couldn't expect such change in such a short period of time and even if i was not there are other circumstances (economic, gonvernment, social etc...) that are likely to intervene even if technology was able to keep pace with my vision of the future of HT.

The only thing left now is how much do you want to bet?

cheddar

Nothing wrong with youthful enthusiasm for the future. As dire as the economy is, we could sure use some. But I'm not going to bet someone because they believe in it. Please don't take this the wrong way, but you're coming from a very similar place to me when I first saw those HDTV sets around '93. I also thought that my world was changing at an exponential pace and that the fall of the Berlin wall meant that the world was coming together for an unprecedented change. No more nuclear weapons? Peace in our time with no war?

CNH is currently helping the Chinese to catch up to us with a landing on the moon. I'm not sure you can understand what that means to people who were actually alive at a time when it seemed the US aerospace industry would take off like a rocket (bending exponentially upward) with the apollo missions, moon landings, even the early days of the shuttle program. I think part of the misunderstanding we have could be because you have your own promising future events that you see will 'bend exponentially' upward. And maybe it's best if us old jaded guys got out of your way and let you take it as far as you can. Don't get me wrong, I've enjoyed our conversation and I sincerely hope your generation takes the new technology as far as it can go. I'm just not sure how constructive this is if we're now just betting on crystal ball futures without trying to understand the basic economic stuff.

tonyb

BET ?? Did someone say...BET???

Give me $20 on the midget in the corner with the DR. Seuss underwear.

cnh

MANSKITO wrote: »

my socio-economic class. I work at Ci-Cis pizza make sub 10k a year.

Go full time to college.

Mom makes maybe 60k year if I had to guess. (don't have a dad any more)

We get 6.0Mbs (according to http://speedtest.net/)

I just happen to have great faith in the future.( because from the perspective of a child of the 90s tech and its rapid advancement is all i know)

Also the average american is better off then most give them credit for.

The middle class life style contrary to what some say is actually super ultra awesome.

All my gear is paid for by Ci-Cis pizza checks (maybe 100-200 every two weeks depending on how many hours i get)

I live in the deep south (south Carolina) so ya you could say high speed internet was slow to make its way here.

(only old people, the AARP, red necks, and people who have sub average IQs wear scared by the digital transition AKA the government lol jk.)

Also remember the nature of exponential change, it gets faster as time progress. If you look at an exponential graph the first section of the graph looks linear and then it shoots straight upward. I believe that currently we are at or close too the turning point (the knee of the graph) wear the progress of tech will be mind blowing in the near future compared to what has happened in the past.

Ok in other words it's definitely NOT money talking but the exuberance of youth. That's OK but you wouldn't want to have a youngster forecast your long range economic goals or outcomes.

One of the most intelligent Economists I ever heard talk was the late John Kenneth Galbraith. He was well into his 80s at the time...and when he was asked to forecast or give his opinion about the next few years...he declined saying that that would be pure folly. Why? Because Economics cannot be understood in short cycles and bursts...Capitalism needs to be viewed from an historical perspective of many decades and epochs. Because age does bring wisdom with it. And although history does not repeat itself 'ever' in exactly the same way it does have patterns and continuities.

Never take the present and simply project it into the future without looking BACK in time before you do that! Or else you will most certainly be wrong.

Youth is great for all the energy and excitement it brings...but wisdom and age are not something we should forget.

It's no surprise that someone in your generation should think as you do...wait a little longer and the scene will change--but not quite in the way you, currently envision it.

I can tell you that from personal experience because the 21st century does not live up to the prognostications that were made for it in 'my' youth--it does NOT look like what it was supposed to. It's less developed and advanced than we were told it would be! The reason...mostly it is Economic....really!

But don't let us old-timers spoil your dreams...you hold onto those because without them there is no hope and no vision for that future...regardless of what it might actually be!

cnh

mystik610

cnh wrote: »

I think a simple question to ask here is what is 'your' socio-economic bracket because such optimism is not coming from the 'masses' in American society who can barely hang onto a good job at this point.

You speak as though you either live in an economic vacuum or have no contact with the common man/woman. The Digital Transition in TV was a real SCARE to a lot of the American public...a vast majority..they were afraid the Gov't was going to take away their TV or FORCE them to buy HDTVs...hence the MASSIVE multi-million dollar subsidies for converter boxes. A lot of the recent boom in HDTV sales is do to overproduction and drastic price drops which are actually LOSING money for most manufacturers because the margins are next to nothing...and this is the result of the Economic crisis continuing--it is NOT a sign of 'recovery'!

Actually if you want to get technical, the drastic price drops and boost in HDTV saleswere a result of a deflation in the retail sector, strengthening of the dollar against Japanese and Korean currencies, stimulus packages, cheap debt, and aggressive rate cuts from the fed. And you're right, none of these were signs of recovery in 08 and 09 (other than the strengthening dollar), but the economic environment we're in certainly did help bolster HDTV sales, moreso than the digital transition.

And again, anyone who was prompted to buy an HDTV by the digital transition still made the conscious decision to do so when they could have just as easily got a converter box for free. Most people were well aware that they could get a free converter box, and retailers were eager to sell them....it was all over the news, the ads were everywhere...you couldn't walk into a store to buy an HDTV without seeing a free converter box. Given the economic environment we're in, spending thousands of dollars on an HDTV is a big financial decision to make. The economic conditions we're in made that decision a little easier to make in some ways, but people still made decision to adopt the technology well before the madated digital transition.

HDTV sales had established a steady growth trend YEARS before the mandated transition, which occured less than a 6 months ago. I'm not denying that the digital transition had an effect on HDTV sales, only that the effect would represent a blip in the overall growth of its market penetration. The technology would have prevailed, and had been prevailing, without it.

cnh wrote: »

So what wonderland are you living in?? Some affluent suburb in Connecticut, Jersey or California, Chicago perhaps? I'm just curious because I find too much optimism above...especially in this current market.

And while we're speaking do you know what the average DSL speed is for Beijing....I have it and it's about 2.5 mbs/second.....does that sound like its ready for your techno revolution.

These things will happen but a lot slower than ANYONE can currently imagine because we are in an unprecedented slow down with regards to selling NEW tech..

I will even go so far as to predict that in the future don't expect to see AVR upgrades EVERY year but rather every 2 years because sales will be abysmal in the coming year!!

cnh

The worst of the recession is over ....the financial markets bottomed out in March of last year, and had rallied close to 20% for the rest of the year. Main street (the job market) has historically lagged the financial market by about 6 months. Whatever the case is, 2009 was the year the financial markets started to recover, and 2010 will be the year the job market starts to recover.

The fact is, HDTV sales managed to grow amidst a very harsh economic climate. There's no reason to beleive that as the economy recovers, those trends wouldn't continue. Television manufacturer's know this, which is why they're constantly re-inventing their technology, even as they take massive losses. Hell, throughout the 3 years since this recession really hit us, we've seen a lot of improvements in display technology, and have many more ahead of us.

As for what part of the country I'm in, I live in a suburban area just outside of Houston, TX. The lending laws here aren't upside down like the rest of the country, and the local housing market has always been very stable (you can still buy more house for the money here than most of the country). The oil & gas/energy industry warded off the recession for a while, until oil prices and production spiked in 08, consequently leading to a sharp decline in prices and production in the latter end of 08 until now. From a relative stanpoint, things are better here than the rest of the world, but the effects of the recession, although delayed, are very much felt.

cheddar

Now I think you're just arguing for argument's sake. You're starting to just restate your old arguments again, going around in circles, ignoring points I made earlier about the digital transition being the primary cause for the increase of the last two years in HDTV sales. And don't seem to understand what it may be like to loose a job you've held for 20 years and how with 10% unemployment (the official figure grossly underestimates actual under and unemployment by the way) or with regional unemployment much higher that things just don't come down to some simple mathematical concept like 'exponentially exponential' or financial markets bottoming. I guess you'll just have to experience 'real life' more before some of this starts to make sense to you. For those who are unemployed, or have had a pay cut, or have had their hours slashed, the worst of the recession is definitely not over. Those people now face home foreclosures and not being able to make ends meet to provide for themselves and their families.

In any case, enjoy your arguing. I think we've derailed the thread long enough. I'm out.

mystik610

cheddar wrote: »

Now I think you're just arguing for argument's sake. You're starting to just restate your old arguments again, going around in circles, ignoring points I made earlier about the digital transition being the primary cause for the increase of last two years in HDTV sales.

In any case, enjoy your arguing. I think we've derailed the thread long enough. I'm out.

Well here's the million dollar question.

Is it really unfathomable that people would adopt a new technology without government intervention?

Look how far cell phone technology has come in the last decade, without any major government intervention.

You mentioned processor chips....Look how far processor chips progressed in the 90's when intel dominated the game, and they were doubling in speed every couple of years. Look how the technology progressed through the bursting of the tech bubble in early 00's, and look how they continue to progress even today.

I'm not denying that the mandated intervention had an effect on HDTV sales, but to argue that HDTV adoption rates are at the level they are now purely because of the fedearal mandate is a one-track argument. There are so many other factors that have affected where they are now.

cheddar wrote: »

And don't seem to understand what it may be like to loose a job you've held for 20 years and how with 10% unemployment (the official figure grossly underestimates actual under and unemployment by the way) or with regional unemployment much higher that things just don't come down to some simple mathematical concept like 'exponentially exponential' or financial markets bottoming. I guess you'll just have to experience 'real life' more before some of this starts to make sense to you.

They aren't 'simple mathematical concepts'....they're financial trends that help give us an idea of where we're headed. The same financial trends that pointed to the housing market meltdown and credit crunch when the dow broke 14,000 and the media was clamoring about how great the economy was.

I'm not trying to take a away from the human part of getting laid off. But looking at things from a broad perspective (which we are), we shouldn't get so caught up in the negativity and lose sight of the fact that a recovery is going to happen.