PS3 Problems

cheddar

Demiurge wrote:

I owned PS1, and PS2 at launch, and I am not even 50/50 on a PS3 right now. The 360 offers way more options for gamers that the PS3 doesn't offer. The future of gaming is more important than just a 'kick **** console'. Of course that makes me a Microsoft Fan Boy despite only owning one of the two M-Soft console at current.

The true tale of the success of the PS3 will not be known for at least 2 years. The 360 has a year under it's belt at this juncture, and it's too soon to call on the success of that unit as well.

I think we'll know by this time next year. MS's goal was to sell what, 6 million units by last summer? They'll have another window with this Christmas since it looks like the PS3 will be far under demand with their first 2 million. But if at this time next year, the ps3 is roughly equivalent to the 360 in units shipped or ahead, I think it's obvious the ps3 will be a success. If it's far behind, then you can hammer a nail in sony's coffin...;)

cheddar

tommyboy wrote:

yes, but probably 98-99% of them payed retail price. And a lot of the people that will wait in line for the ps3 are going to pay $600 for their system and keep it. So you can prolly cut that 400,000 at least in half. So, imo, at most, about 200,000 will pay more than retail(between 1500 and 3000).

And lets not forget the ps2 was half the price ps3 was at launch... If your saying that the $600 price tag is not going to hurt ps3 sales, you gotta be crazy;)

Never said it would reach 100 million. But it also doesn't have to and still be considered a success. I think that over the next few years (dropping the price as production efficiencies come into play), if they sell 10-20 million, they would have succeeded in flooding the market with blu-ray players.

Edit: And I read your math again, and I still don't get how you're so sure that there's only 200,000 hard core gamers out there. The point is that they can't meet demand, so the true demand at $599 is not known. At $1500-$2000 it could be about 400,000.

krabby5

tommyboy wrote:

Thats for the true hardcore gamers.For the mainstream, I don't see people spending $600 for a system IMO. After the true hardcore fans get their system, the ps3 will have to drop their price to get more sales they want.

I bet you are wrong...especially in japan

krabby5

zombie boy 2000 wrote:

I think I'll just bust out the Sega CD tonight and play some Night Trap with Dana Plato:p

yer the one who bought that?:D

like i should talk....I had the 32x add on for the saturn

zombie boy 2000

krabby5 wrote:

I bet you are wrong...especially in japan

Only if because the average gamer's age has increased along with their earning power...

that being said, $600 is outlandish.

Demiurge

cheddar wrote:

I think we'll know by this time next year. MS's goal was to sell what, 6 million units by last summer? They'll have another window with this Christmas since it looks like the PS3 will be far under demand with their first 2 million. But if at this time next year, the ps3 is roughly equivalent to the 360 in units shipped or ahead, I think it's obvious the ps3 will be a success. If it's far behind, then you can hammer a nail in sony's coffin...;)

The success of a gaming system long term isn't in initial units sold, but rather in the titles the waring consoles can get the gaming companies to release on their platform. This plays a huge part in the long term. Trying to gauge success because knuckleheads will stand in line 4 days before launch to be the first to buy a system to use/ebay isn't an indicator of long term success. Neither side can claim victory for at least 2 business cycles.

Assuming that just because someone can presumably get $1,600 on eBay (I haven't seen any higher for JUST the console with bids, but that's beside the point) for a $600 for a system isn't an economic indicator for Sony. It's more of an indicator of the lack of patience on behlaf of gamers or parents who have no control over their brat kids.

When the pixie dust settles after Christmas people will have a choice to make between systems. That's where the real winners will start to be seen. Even then I stand by my remark that it'll take at least 2 business cycles by both companies before they'll know.

I predict Microsoft will do better. It's way too early to tell how Sony will fare. I think they'll be okay, but they took a huge leap on this system from a business perspective. Business is all about taking risks, and I applaud them for that.

cheddar

The PS3 will sell well in Japan. That's a given. It simply has no competition. They just don't buy xboxes in Japan, 360 or otherwise. The Wii may draw off sales, but if gamers want state-of-the-art, they'll have to pony up the cash.

polkatese

Last year when XBOX360 was released, I have to admit that I got caught up in the Hype, watching it went as high as $3000+ for the console, so by the time I shelled out $640 for one, I felt it was worthwhile, and the truth is, it was (had the system up and running around Christmas holiday time with the kids, priceless). This time around with PS3, I am completely content with 360, and COD3 is enough to keep me and the kids busy).

cheddar

Demiurge wrote:

The success of a gaming system long term isn't in initial units sold, but rather in the titles the waring consoles can get the gaming companies to release on their platform. This plays a huge part in the long term. Trying to gauge success because knuckleheads will stand in line 4 days before launch to be the first to buy a system to use/ebay isn't an indicator of long term success. Neither side can claim victory for at least 2 business cycles.

Assuming that just because someone can presumably get $1,600 on eBay (I haven't seen any higher for JUST the console with bids, but that's beside the point) for a $600 for a system isn't an economic indicator for Sony. It's more of an indicator of the lack of patience on behlaf of gamers or parents who have no control over their brat kids.

When the pixie dust settles after Christmas people will have a choice to make between systems. That's where the real winners will start to be seen. Even then I stand by my remark that it'll take at least 2 business cycles by both companies before they'll know.

I predict Microsoft will do better. It's way too early to tell how Sony will fare. I think they'll be okay, but they took a huge leap on this system from a business perspective. Business is all about taking risks, and I applaud them for that.

You and others didn't believe me when I said the first 2 million would fly off the shelves. Now you're saying that ebay prices don't mean much. *shrug* I've never said which format will win. I've always maintained that the Sony bashers on this forum have severely underestimated demand. Can't even give me credit for that, I guess. (I still don't own a playstation 2 by the way. But dismiss me as a fanboy if you must.) Believe what you want. We'll know for sure who's right by Christmas a year from now. If sales of the ps3 are equivalent or surpass the 360, will that be enough evidence for you? What mark are you waiting two business cycles for? If they sell an equivalent or larger amount at the higher pricepoint, why wouldn't that be enough evidence that the ps3 is doing well (unless the 360 sales are in the toilet, that is)...

Demiurge

cheddar wrote:

You and others didn't believe me when I said the first 2 million would fly off the shelves. Now you're saying that ebay prices don't mean much. *shrug* I've never said which format will win. I've always maintained that the Sony bashers on this forum have severely underestimated demand. Can't even give me credit for that, I guess. (I still don't own a playstation by the way. But dismiss me as a fanboy if you must.) Believe what you want. We'll know for sure who's right by next Christmas. If sales of the ps3 are equivalent or surpass the 360, will that be enough evidence for you? What mark are you waiting two business cycles for? If they sell an equivalent or larger amount at the higher pricepoint, why wouldn't that be enough evidence that the ps3 is doing well (unless the 360 sales are in the toilet, that is)...

I never said they wouldn't fly off the shelves. I said that a $600 price tag is hefty, and I am skeptical of their long term sales potential. Please don't put words in my mouth. I consider myself a gamer, and I am not going to be buying one of these until at least late spring, if at all. I can afford it. If it's keeping me at home at launch it's keeping others home as well. Might not mean a hill of beans in terms of initial sales, but I'm not even trying to get one.

I also said that the price tag helps the XBox 360s sales numbers this Christmas. It's cheaper unless you buy the HD-DVD player, which not everyone wants. Not everyone wants Blu-Ray either, which is also waring with the HD-DVD players, but that's a completely different discussion. The notion that Microsoft's XBox 360 sales will be jumpstarted by the release of the PS3 during the Christmas season makes all the sense in the world from a business perspective. The bottom line here is that you cannot possibly claim success on launch numbers. I don't claim that's what you're trying to do, but you're way more optimistic about their potential success than anyone I have ever talked to.

The PS3 is running on hype right now and nothing more. This was the same story for the XBox 360 last fall. That's why 2 business cycles is important. Do you run a business? I'm not patronizing you with the question, but perhaps it would be easier to understand the idea inflationary numbers if you did. It seems like it's getting lost on you in this whole discussion.

The market needs to settle before you can start calling winners and losers. That's not going to happen until each system has gone through 2 business cycles.

...and yes whoever sells more units is obviously the winner. That was never in question. I think both units will be successful. I don't think Sony will hit the numbers they want, nor beat out Microsoft.

cheddar

Demiurge wrote:

I never said they wouldn't fly off the shelves. I said that a $600 price tag is hefty, and I am skeptical of their long term sales potential. Please don't put words in my mouth.

On May 11, 2006 I wrote:

cheddar wrote:

With Halo 3 delayed until Spring 2007 there's only going to be one must have during Christmas for the console gamer (or their parents) with cash. Let's face it, Sony will see millions of PS3s flying off the shelves this holiday season...

To which you replied:

Demiurge wrote:

How do you figure? I think you're wrong. Sony at a higher price point will only help Microsoft, it's obvious. Especially if there are shortages.

Sorry about the misinterpretation, but I certainly wasn't trying to put words in your mouth. Seems like an honest mistake to me.

In any case, I see plenty of 360s lying around on store shelves. I've already acknowledged that it offers the 360 another opportunity to move boxes since they will not be able to meet ps3 demand this Christmas making it the one must have that everybody will brag about scoring if they can get one. And that millions of ps3s will fly off the shelves. Not sure what it was, then that you found so completely wrong in my original statement...;)

scottvamp

Cheddar, i support everything you say and have said it myself. Defending the PS3 to XBox fans on this forum has been rough. Though the coversation is interesting. I am sure glad my parents have no control over my brat self. Looking forward to owning console myself and seeing many Sony bashers proved wrong yet again............ I don't care if it was Sony or Zenith. Three generations of games and consoles that i have never had an issues with.

Recently the Atari CEO bashed the PS3. I have no ideal why??????
Just because the PS2 destoyed the Jaguar system. (and all hope for any Atari console) Noone would make games for thier own competition.

Hey if your happy with what ya got - then good. I just wish i had more time to PLAY!!!!!

cheddar

Demiurge wrote:

The bottom line here is that you cannot possibly claim success on launch numbers. I don't claim that's what you're trying to do, but you're way more optimistic about their potential success than anyone I have ever talked to.

I have never, ever said that the long term success of the ps3 is guaranteed in the high launch demand. I've simply stated that we will probably know the viability of the ps3 quite well a year from now. I've even gone out of my way to say that I am not predicting success. If you think that's some sort of flaming optimism, I guess that's your opinion...

Demiurge wrote:

The PS3 is running on hype right now and nothing more. This was the same story for the XBox 360 last fall. That's why 2 business cycles is important. Do you run a business? I'm not patronizing you with the question, but perhaps it would be easier to understand the idea inflationary numbers if you did. It seems like it's getting lost on you in this whole discussion.

The market needs to settle before you can start calling winners and losers. That's not going to happen until each system has gone through 2 business cycles.

We couldn't call the success of the 360 'cause it's had no competition for an entire year. So the only thing you can say about the 360 is what it means to MS's internal book keeping. But, yes, we'll know for sure in a year how the two formats are selling against each other. And if it looks like demand for the ps3 is healthy, or even moreso if it's better than the 360 by comparison, then it doesn't matter how hard the machine is to program for...developers will start rolling out the second generation games...

And yeah, the comment about owning a business was condescending.

Demiurge wrote:

...and yes whoever sells more units is obviously the winner. That was never in question. I think both units will be successful. I don't think Sony will hit the numbers they want, nor beat out Microsoft.

Great, we now have a metric to use to determine success. Will Sony at some point surpass the 360 in sales? Right now, I'm still in the "Who knows?" camp. But you're squarely in the, "Overpriced ps3 can't outsell the 360 'cause it's got a year lead and is equivalent in power so the market forces lean towards the 360." Okay, we'll see.

PolkThug

scottvamp wrote:

Recently the Atari CEO bashed the PS3. I have no ideal why??????
Just because the PS2 destoyed the Jaguar system. (and all hope for any Atari console) Noone would make games for thier own competition.

I'm guessing UT2007 will be only on 360??

cheddar

scottvamp wrote:

Cheddar, i support everything you say and have said it myself. Defending the PS3 to XBox fans on this forum has been rough. Though the coversation is interesting. I am sure glad my parents have no control over my brat self. Looking forward to owning console myself and seeing many Sony bashers proved wrong yet again............ I don't care if it was Sony or Zenith. Three generations of games and consoles that i have never had an issues with.

Recently the Atari CEO bashed the PS3. I have no ideal why??????
Just because the PS2 destoyed the Jaguar system. (and all hope for any Atari console) Noone would make games for thier own competition.

Hey if your happy with what ya got - then good. I just wish i had more time to PLAY!!!!!

I'm actually an xbox fan that loves Halo. But since Sony included HDMI 1.3 blu-ray in the ps3, I'll probably get it as soon as I can find it at retail. I guess I'm part of the demographic Sony was gunning for when they included blu-ray in the package. But I'll probably get the 360 too when Halo 3 comes out.

I totally agree that Sony bashing seems to be the thing to do these days. I find it ironic since M$ used to be the evil corporate empire in the 90s, go figure :rolleyes:. Yeah, if you're happy with what you got, then all that matters is finding the time to play. :cool:

tommyboy

krabby5 wrote:

I bet you are wrong...especially in japan

Thanks zombie for the defending my quote.:)

It feels like I'm the only one that sees this. I will never buy the ps3 not because I wasn't a big fan of the ps2, but because people like you will buy the system at whatever cost causing casual gamers like us to pony up more doe to play any new video games. I have yet to buy the xbox 360(even though I would like one) solely cause of the $399 price tag. While much cheaper than the ps3, I still think its a little much for a video game console. If the ps3 becomes very successful, we will soon have to pay near $1000 for the next generation consoles...(You guys think that number is too high, how did you feel when you first heard the ps3 was double the price of the ps2). Successfull video hardware has been priced between $199-299 since the mid 80s, I expect a little inflation, now all of the sudden, the price doubling just scares me a bit.

Well, appearantly there are people putting a **** load of money into their computers so 1000 isn't that much... I just hope you worked for that and your parents didn't give it to you.

zombie boy 2000

Well... $600 is ridiculous. And before we get into any "pot and kettle" arguments with references to the world of audio, let's remember that the video-game industry is not one that caters to a precious few, but rather a vastly mainstream industry comparable to both the movie and music industry.

I'm an avid gamer (as our most of my friends) and not a one of them are even considering the PS3 at it proposed pricepoint. Now consider that every single one of us consider the PS2 our favorite console hands-down, and it starts to become very clear that Sony is about to step off a cliff.

cheddar

tommyboy wrote:

Thanks zombie for the defending my quote.:)

It feels like I'm the only one that sees this. I will never buy the ps3 not because I wasn't a big fan of the ps2, but because people like you will buy the system at whatever cost causing casual gamers like us to pony up more doe to play any new video games. I have yet to buy the xbox 360(even though I would like one) solely cause of the $399 price tag. While much cheaper than the ps3, I still think its a little much for a video game console. If the ps3 becomes very successful, we will soon have to pay near $1000 for the next generation consoles...(You guys think that number is too high, how did you feel when you first heard the ps3 was double the price of the ps2). Successfull video hardware has been priced between $199-299 since the mid 80s, I expect a little inflation, now all of the sudden, the price doubling just scares me a bit.

Well, appearantly there are people putting a **** load of money into their computers so 1000 isn't that much... I just hope you worked for that and your parents didn't give it to you.

Again, I have to state that I'm not predicting the success of one format over the other. I'm going to probably buy both. So maybe they just pulled a fast one on this particular consumer. But from 1980 to 1999, the buying power of the US dollar dropped to less than half:

http://www.sunshinecable.com/~eisehan/V80-10en.htm

You have to add even more inflation to get to where the dollar is today...:(

Edit: Another article with some prices:

http://www.mhinvest.com/newsbi/inflation.html

1980 middle of the line ford - $3,500, cheap haircut $5, today $20,000 and $15-$20.

At 4% inflation (lower than the long term trend), prices double every 18.1 years...

tommyboy

cheddar wrote:

.

At 4% inflation (lower than the long term trend), prices double every 18.1 years...

Well, it looks like with video games now, it doubles every 5 years;)

I'm not sure, but has the electronics industry have that much inflation? Tvs, audio, etc. were pretty damn expensive back then weren't they(I haven't been in electronics long enough to know)?

univera

http://articles.news.aol.com/business/_a/ebay-restricts-sale-of-playstation-3/20061115135209990003?ncid=NWS00010000000001

Demiurge

univera wrote:

http://articles.news.aol.com/business/_a/ebay-restricts-sale-of-playstation-3/20061115135209990003?ncid=NWS00010000000001

Ouch......

scottvamp

Demiurge wrote:

Ouch......

This started about 2 or 3 weeks ago when the pre-orders started. Before that they were taken off Ebay. This is one of the very reasons for the high prices that people are getting on ebay. Because of the critera that has to be met, including a photo of the pre-order reciept.
If Ebay did not do this than thier would be nothing but thousands and thousands scams posted.

On another note, EBgames personal are making alot of phone calls telling people that they are cancelling preorders. They pretty much have the units and it is not near the pre-order amounts...........
And EB is one of the only legit pre-orders PS3 merchantes.:eek:

krabby5

tommyboy wrote:

Thanks zombie for the defending my quote.:)

It feels like I'm the only one that sees this. I will never buy the ps3 not because I wasn't a big fan of the ps2, but because people like you will buy the system at whatever cost causing casual gamers like us to pony up more doe to play any new video games. I have yet to buy the xbox 360(even though I would like one) solely cause of the $399 price tag. While much cheaper than the ps3, I still think its a little much for a video game console. If the ps3 becomes very successful, we will soon have to pay near $1000 for the next generation consoles...(You guys think that number is too high, how did you feel when you first heard the ps3 was double the price of the ps2). Successfull video hardware has been priced between $199-299 since the mid 80s, I expect a little inflation, now all of the sudden, the price doubling just scares me a bit.

Well, appearantly there are people putting a **** load of money into their computers so 1000 isn't that much... I just hope you worked for that and your parents didn't give it to you.

LOL...people like me? Sorry life called and I won't even be in the country Friday. I won't be buying a PS3 anytime soon. I don't even have a HD tv.

$600 is a lot of money.

Sony will sell MILLIONS of PS3's

IF they have good games, they will DESTROY the 360 in sales...Japan doesnt buy MS

So dont blame me ....

scottvamp

We will see if you guys are right and no one wants the PS3 because $600 is insaneity. I live in a fairly small town. Will let you know if i can get my hands on one tomorrow night........:cool:

cheddar

Well bring a tent. I drove by BB, CC, and Frys on the way home and they all look like refuge camp sites right now :rolleyes:...except I think they won't let people pitch tents at Frys...

tommyboy

cheddar wrote:

Well bring a tent. I drove by BB, CC, and Frys on the way home and they all look like refuge camp sites right now :rolleyes:...except I think they won't let people pitch tents at Frys...

same here, I couldn't believe it. You got to be crazy waiting two days before it launches. Its been raining all day and is suppose to all day tomorrow as well.And the best part is, its for a video game ... Now if it was to get a chance to go out with jessica alba, I might consider:p

scottvamp

Dam, same here also. A co-worker said that thier are tents and inflatable beds in front of Wal-Mart.:eek:
I heard they only have two or three consoles. And at my local EB, some fat smelly guy thats employed thier already horded thier few units...........

PhantomOG

Hope your HDTV does 720p...

http://ps3.ign.com/articles/746/746282p1.html

I happen to have a TV that does 1080i native, not 720. But I always thought my TV could accept 720p and it would upscale to 1080i. I wonder what the PS3 would do on my tv.

I'm not willing to pay $600 (or $1500) to find out

Shizelbs

Ah, this is great. Real **** smart Sony. They had better hope they can fix this in some sort of firmware update.

You know what would be classic Sony? Release an update that finally would support upscaling to 1080i, but only on Sony TVs. Someone owes me a beer when this turns out to be true.

scottvamp

Everybody that does not have a tv/monitor that does not do a perfect 720p resolution, the PS3 will not function.:rolleyes: