Scary virus outbreak in China

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  • Gardenstater
    Gardenstater Posts: 2,710
    edited March 2020
    George / NJ

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  • BlueFox
    BlueFox Posts: 15,240
    Interesting map. Thanks.

    Any stock rebound is to be expected, and is temporary.
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  • F1nut
    F1nut Posts: 47,074
    treitz3 wrote: »
    la2vegas wrote: »
    No offense, but your logic is faulty.
    Care to back that up with any intelligence?

    Tom

    That'll never happen.
    Political Correctness'.........defined

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  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,546
    erniejade wrote: »
    ... I run Karaoke and DJ in a few small bars. For the past few weeks, the bars that are usually packed during the winter ( 100+) have only had 10-15 customers all night on a Friday. Summertime they usually slow down a bit and loose some to places that have an outdoor patio but, not as bad as I have seen in the past few weeks.
    This is exactly why the market is spooked.

    Initially, the worry was about supply chain disruption (manufacturing shutting down in China), but now there is the potential for a full blown global recession. Those concerns will fade now that tens of thousands of Chinese workers have recovered and will return to work.

    But now, discretionary spending on the part of 401(k) millionaires could screech to a halt as they see their accounts dwindle, impacting things like dining out, Starbucks, or that new truck, etc. etc.

    Several companies have warned that they will not meet expected targets in Q1, even companies which raised their target guidance just weeks ago (hence the recent record highs). It seems unlikely that we’ll have any visibility for earnings until Q1 reporting starts in earnest, mid-April.
    Alea jacta est!
  • tonyb
    tonyb Posts: 32,617
    Bud, to quote one of my favorite movies, moonstruck....

    Everything is temporary !!
    🙂

    So what changed today that enabled the market to come roaring back ? The virus news is just as bad today as it was last week.
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  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,546
    Another reason the market is spooked is because of the high degree of uncertainty of the reality in the U.S.
    • As of Friday, the U.S. had tested fewer than 500 people - for a population of 330 million.
    • South Korea, OTOH, had tested 65,000 people - for a population of 52 million.
    • China can test 1.6 million people per week.
    • The W.H.O. provided testing kits to 57 nations. The U.S. decided to make its own testing kits. Fewer than 5,000 had been made by the end of last week. The FDA discovered that many of those kits were contaminated (unusable) just last Thursday.
    • Manufacture in the U.S. has now been outsourced from the CDC. 75,000 kits are expected to be available by the end of this week.

    In the meantime, France, Germany and the United Kingdom are providing thousands of testing kits and equipment to Iran so that testing can be accelerated in that country.

    The JHU CSSE tracker (map) is a bit behind. The number of cases in Italy has exceeded 2,000 today, as expected.
    Alea jacta est!
  • nooshinjohn
    nooshinjohn Posts: 23,499
    looks like the top level of Iran's government has been exposed to the virus. I call that a silver lining.
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    “If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.”
  • krazypolk
    krazypolk Posts: 732
    looks like the top level of Iran's government has been exposed to the virus. I call that a silver lining.

    I read that too. See the virus ain't that bad.
  • sucks2beme
    sucks2beme Posts: 5,249
    BlueFox wrote: »
    It amazes me how poor people know everything about the stock market.

    I pulled all my investments/401k out of stock last year.
    The investment guy was confused. I bet he now has a hint
    of why a long term bull market can't be maintained.
    It was going to happen. If not this, something else.
    "The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg." --Thomas Jefferson
  • Clipdat
    Clipdat Posts: 10,952
    edited March 2020
    daddyjt wrote: »
    I would submit to you that the VAST majority of Americans that contract this virus will never know it. They will feel sick for a few days, then recover and go on with their life.

    This has been the course of viral infections since the dawn of time. What has changed is the 24hr news cycle, that always needs a “crisis” to drive their ratings, and in turn advertising revenue.

    giphy.gif

  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,546
    That’s certainly a valid point (IMHO) @daddyjt, but the markets don’t care. All they care about is earnings growth and results vs. expectations.
    Alea jacta est!
  • tonyb
    tonyb Posts: 32,617
    sucks2beme wrote: »
    BlueFox wrote: »
    It amazes me how poor people know everything about the stock market.

    I pulled all my investments/401k out of stock last year.
    The investment guy was confused. I bet he now has a hint
    of why a long term bull market can't be maintained.
    It was going to happen. If not this, something else.

    Goes without saying, what goes up must come down eventually. The dips are short lived though. The markets as a whole over long periods of time continue to go up and up.

    You know how California is waiting for "the big one" to happen....same for the markets. To me, a crash aka...the big one...is gonna happen sooner rather than later. Why do I say that ? Because in spite of our booming economy, we are still broke with mountains of debt, while everyone else also has mountains of debt, negative interests rates, and no booming economies. There has to be a reset somewhere, that wipes out all debt. Only a crash can do that, and usually it's the middle class, middle investors, that are told to bend over.

    I know that's not very optimistic, but we are long overdue for a worldwide plunge.
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  • krazypolk
    krazypolk Posts: 732
    tonyb wrote: »
    sucks2beme wrote: »
    BlueFox wrote: »
    It amazes me how poor people know everything about the stock market.

    I pulled all my investments/401k out of stock last year.
    The investment guy was confused. I bet he now has a hint
    of why a long term bull market can't be maintained.
    It was going to happen. If not this, something else.

    Goes without saying, what goes up must come down eventually. The dips are short lived though. The markets as a whole over long periods of time continue to go up and up.

    You know how California is waiting for "the big one" to happen....same for the markets. To me, a crash aka...the big one...is gonna happen sooner rather than later. Why do I say that ? Because in spite of our booming economy, we are still broke with mountains of debt, while everyone else also has mountains of debt, negative interests rates, and no booming economies. There has to be a reset somewhere, that wipes out all debt. Only a crash can do that, and usually it's the middle class, middle investors, that are told to bend over.

    I know that's not very optimistic, but we are long overdue for a worldwide plunge.

    I thought we had that 12 years ago. Or are you suggesting worst?
  • nooshinjohn
    nooshinjohn Posts: 23,499
    Twelve years ago was a warning shot that went unheeded.
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    “Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book has been rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered…History has stopped. Nothing exists except the endless present in which the party is always right” — George Orwell

    “If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.”
  • tonyb
    tonyb Posts: 32,617
    I'm suggesting worse, something catastrophic that will force a rewire of the financial institutions around the globe. Debts will have to be wiped out in order for growth to happen again. Like a game of musical chairs, who will be left standing with no chair ?

    I can tell you this, it won't be the elites, and certainly won't be the poor, they never had a chair to begin with. That leaves the middle class again to take the brunt of the losses.

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  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,546
    edited March 2020
    • The number of deaths in the U.S. is now 5, in King County, WA + one more in Snohomish County, WA. WA has declared a state of emergency.
    • The number of cases identified in the U.S. is now 100 (keep in mind that we haven’t tested very many people - see previous comment above).
    • The U.S. hopes to be able to test 10,000 per day by the end of the week. China is already able to test 1.6 million per week.
    Post edited by Kex on
    Alea jacta est!
  • nooshinjohn
    nooshinjohn Posts: 23,499
    6 deaths now, all in Washington.
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    In retirement...TriangleArt Reference SE with Walker Precision Motor Drive,

    “Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book has been rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered…History has stopped. Nothing exists except the endless present in which the party is always right” — George Orwell

    “If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.”
  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,546
    Some of those latest comments really are doom & gloom!

    The 2008-9 crisis was severe, in some measure, because of fixed assets that banks did not know how to offload (foreclosed homes). That in turn created a huge drop in house prices, which led to a massive reversal in home building. Booming markets like Las Vegas reversed course etc. etc., so the downturn lingered in people’s minds far beyond any actual technical recession as measured by GDP growth.

    I do not expect this to be even half as bad. It could get worse than last week, certainly, but not that bad IMHO. There’s a good chance we’ll enter bear market territory before long. Many stocks are already experiencing a bear market.

    Without those same underlying issues, however, this correction and/or bear market could be short lived.

    If the Chinese workforce continues to recover by the tens of thousands, the supply chain will return to normal before long. Earnings guidance will recover quickly, either during Q1 earnings calls, or during Q2 earnings calls. By then, the earnings losses will have been priced in. If guidance is reassuring, the markets will also recover.

    There are always unknowns. Europe has been suffering from diminished GDP growth since the Brexit referendum because of uncertainty. GDP growth there has been further restrained because of tariffs (this is open to discussion, but that is the general consensus). If Europe enters recession (Italy almost certainly will), then that will increase the chances that the U.S. will also enter recession.

    If there is a global recession for more than one quarter, then all bets are off. IMHO.
    Alea jacta est!
  • mrbigbluelight
    mrbigbluelight Posts: 8,722
    I figure most of the people dying are Chinese and I'm over here and I'm making BIG money from all the brouha and isn't that's what most important how much money I can make ? Yeah money that's THE most important thing. :ME. and MY MONEY.
    I see there are a number of fellow traellers with the same mindset in this thread because WE know what's most important in life: money.
    Sal Palooza
  • BlueFox
    BlueFox Posts: 15,240
    tonyb wrote: »
    I'm suggesting worse, something catastrophic that will force a rewire of the financial institutions around the globe. Debts will have to be wiped out in order for growth to happen again. Like a game of musical chairs, who will be left standing with no chair ?

    I can tell you this, it won't be the elites, and certainly won't be the poor, they never had a chair to begin with. That leaves the middle class again to take the brunt of the losses.

    I actually agree with this. Will wonders never cease? :)
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  • daddyjt
    daddyjt Posts: 1,611
    I figure most of the people dying are Chinese and I'm over here and I'm making BIG money from all the brouha and isn't that's what most important how much money I can make ? Yeah money that's THE most important thing. :ME. and MY MONEY.
    I see there are a number of fellow traellers with the same mindset in this thread because WE know what's most important in life: money.

    Well,... yea.

    Certainly not the most important, but pretty close. I like to be able to feed my family. And clothe them. And provide them a safe place to sleep. I like to have reliable transportation. And medical care. And audio gear.

    That all takes money. The demonization of wealth perplexes me, especially on an audio forum where so many spend so much on a hobby.
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  • mrbigbluelight
    mrbigbluelight Posts: 8,722
    Oh I'm not demonizing money.
    In fact I've discarded all moral values becuse I'v seen how I can increase my moneys by doing so.
    Sal Palooza
  • krazypolk
    krazypolk Posts: 732
    nvlmhdiwalcs.jpg

    Anti-Corona virus spray,
    Spray throat three times a day.

    Now you're speakin my language.
  • Joey_V
    Joey_V Posts: 7,884
    krazypolk wrote: »
    So much for the gloom and doomers. Stocks are roaring back!

    For one day. That’s a little premature
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  • Joey_V
    Joey_V Posts: 7,884
    6 deaths now, all in Washington.

    How many sick in Washington?
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  • Viking64
    Viking64 Posts: 5,735
    Joey_V wrote: »
    6 deaths now, all in Washington.

    How many sick in Washington?

    Back in the early 90s, everyone between the ages of 16 and 32 in Washington was sick.
  • Kex
    Kex Posts: 4,546
    edited March 2020
    Joey_V wrote: »
    How many sick in Washington?
    Statistics from JHU CSSE are not updated all that frequently (but more than once a day). Currently, they show 14 cases in King County, Washington; and 4 in Snohomish County, Washington.

    That number includes the 6 deaths, and 1 recovery (7 total).

    However, very few people have actually been tested. For example: only 32 people tested in the entire state of New York. The supply of test kits will not be normal until the end of the week.
    Alea jacta est!
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