Why do people assume that technology will take over?

exalted512

interesting topic btw

cheddar

exalted512 wrote: »

That's what I disagree about I guess.

I don't care who, what, where, when, or how it came about...go back to 2006 and ask people what an iPad is and what an iPhone is.

I'm assuming a large part of why the iPad wasnt brought about to now was technology-cost related.

3-D came about in theaters primarily in the 50s, it wasnt reasonably available to be in my house until the last couple years (NO IM NOT SAYING 3-D REVOLUTIONIZED ANYTHING). Just trying to say, regardless of when it was invented, it doesnt really revolutionize anything until its widespread
-Cody

I don't think we disagree that much. I was just making a point that giving all the credit to one product as revolutionary and another as only an incremental iteration is a bit over stated. Mass market penetration doesn't happen quickly or predictably. Which is why I think Jstas has a point in starting this thread. And over time, it probably takes a lot of different products from a lot of different companies to forge a new industry segment that actually replaces something.

BlueFox

Jstas wrote: »

Why are you lecturing me?

The only lectures I see are from you.

Only people who are looking through that toilet paper roll see it another way.

Why are you talking about yourself? :rolleyes:

Have fun living in denial.

drselect

Was just wondering if anyone as seen my Montgomery Wards, Sears and Roebuck, or Jcpenney catalogs. The last time I saw them they were sitting under the rotary dial phone next to my black and white tube tv.:biggrin:

danger boy

Resistance is futile..

On3s&Z3r0s

danger boy wrote: »

Resistance is futile..
__________________
vinyl isn't for wussies

LOL... that statement is beautifully ironic coming from someone who's sig is "vinyl isn't for wussies." That made my day. :biggrin:

kevhed72

Although I generally hate paper, I also hate staring at a computer screen to read news and the like. On the whole I-Pad, I-Phone thing....I refuse to keeping upgrading technology every few years.

I do wonder when educators is going to get with the times and eliminate all the paper and text books. My son is in 3rd grade and lugs a 20 lb. pack to and fro school every day.

kevhed72

Jstas wrote: »

You know that iPhone thing? Supposed to change the world, wasn't it? You know what? It didn't. Still hasn't. The iPad? Yeah, not doing it either. In fact, both technologies have been on the market for a decade or more from other companies. The Apple stuff doesn't even do it better. It's just in a pretty package with a fancy marketing campaign. But the Jesus Phone and the Jesus Tablet were supposed to revolutionize stuff. I'm not sure what but it didn't.

.

I agree. I am sure many of the columnists and bloggers have received their fair share of free I-phones and other gadgets they review or blog about. There is a large population of people in the US who will never be able to own an I-Pad, let alone afford the monthly service fees.

dkg999

I took an cyber-sercurity class as part of some recent training mandates. It was fascinating to see how really vulnerable the internet and electronic networks are to different types of large-scale attacks, from terrorist to country led military attacks. I love what technology can do and provide, however I worry about our over-reliance on it. I'm just glad that I grew up in a generation and in a part of the country where self-reliance and knowing how to survive without a lot of modern conveniences was the popular wisdom.

fatchowmein

kevhed72 wrote: »

I do wonder when educators is going to get with the times and eliminate all the paper and text books. My son is in 3rd grade and lugs a 20 lb. pack to and fro school every day.

It's already being looked at. My wife's school is currently testing the iPad by... Wait, are you sitting down? Ready? ... by handing out iPads to administrators.

I can see a not so distant future where they'll hand out some sort of ebook reader for certain classrooms to test out. At another school, they tried it with laptops but it was a failure because the equipment was badly abused.

Anyhow, it's being looked at but with the economic crunch, schools are having to cut teachers so it'll be awhile longer before they can justify handing out Kindles, Nooks, or iPads. Maybe some schools will start requiring an ebook reader as part of the school supply for the year?

Oh, there's also the issue of e-textbooks but I don't have any knowledge about that process. I only see the school side from what my wife is doing.

snow

dkg999 wrote: »

I took an cyber-sercurity class as part of some recent training mandates. It was fascinating to see how really vulnerable the internet and electronic networks are to different types of large-scale attacks, from terrorist to country led military attacks. I love what technology can do and provide, however I worry about our over-reliance on it. I'm just glad that I grew up in a generation and in a part of the country where self-reliance and knowing how to survive without a lot of modern conveniences was the popular wisdom.

I agree with you on this, I love my gadgets and the convience they offer dont get me wrong but especially where I live at if the power went out most people would be in trouble in short order if the electricity went out for any period of time in the winter. Most dont have a woodstove and or access to firewood, they dont have enough if any candles or kerosene lanterns etc, most dont have a clue how to hunt, fish, trap or smoke or can their their food if caught, they have no idea how to grow a garden or bake their own bread etc. Technology is fine but it its not a bad idea to have a plan and the knowledge to survive if these things went away even for a short period let alone an extended time.

I think that technolgy is creeping in on our lives and some will take over, perhaps not as fast as some may think but over time yes. Credit/debit cards is one of these that today most cant live without, I rarely carry more than $50.00 in my wallet anymore these days 90% of my bills and the places I shop at accept credid/debit cards which is convient for me rather than having to stop at a bank or ATM for cash I simply use a card.

I dont even use a landline phone anymore for personal use, when was the last time you used a pay phone? Cell phones have took over for personal use.

I think that eventually digital downloads will be the way most get their music, a lot of us still buy CD's but as time goes on the younger generations that are used to digital download will be the majority. I personally like the idea of buying one or two songs that I like from an album rather than buying a CD and having to deal with 10 songs I dont like and paying more for the privlege.


REGARDS SNOW

Jstas

fatchowmein wrote: »

It's already being looked at. My wife's school is currently testing the iPad by... Wait, are you sitting down? Ready? ... by handing out iPads to administrators.

I can see a not so distant future where they'll hand out some sort of ebook reader for certain classrooms to test out. At another school, they tried it with laptops but it was a failure because the equipment was badly abused.

Anyhow, it's being looked at but with the economic crunch, schools are having to cut teachers so it'll be awhile longer before they can justify handing out Kindles, Nooks, or iPads. Maybe some schools will start requiring an ebook reader as part of the school supply for the year?

Oh, there's also the issue of e-textbooks but I don't have any knowledge about that process. I only see the school side from what my wife is doing.

See, now that is an excellent use for an eBook because textbooks go outdated very quickly. Plus, they can stop bullets they are so dense. Having an eBook for a text book means you can, say, buy a license for the book. If the new version comes out, your license would allow for an upgrade to the new version for that text book. It's cheaper than schools having to buy new text books for kids to destroy and keeps things from getting overly out of date.

A single reader for eTextbooks could replace an entire locker full of text books and students wouldn't need to carry anything bigger or heavier than, say, a "Trapper Keeper" sized organizer. It could even be integrated with the eTextbook.

gmm141

I think the word "revolutionize" is overused.

For example, let us look at the two biggest technologies that have made their way into our lives in the last two decades, the cell phone and the internet.

They have certainly changed the way I do things, but I would not say they revolutionized my life. Added convenience is not revolutionary.

For example I recently bought a new receiver, I went online and bought a receiver. Fifteen years ago, I would have picked up a catalog and ordered a receiver. The end result is the same.

The closest I have ever seen is in the life of teenagers. How many of you have seen two teenagers walking together, heads down, texting each other? Like generations past, these kids not only don't talk to their parents, this generation doesn't even have to talk to their friends.

...Crap, I'm old.

I know it is just semantics but other words would be more apropos... but then again, this thread would be much more bland without the shots polarized by the use of "revolution".

So, nevermind.

Viva la revolucion! Viva la Polk!

cokewithvanilla

Well, think about this... think about a bookstore, a video store or a cd store... think about the massive space required (borders books, for example) to store all these obscure items that no one buys. Then think of how many are bought each day. Think about the staff, promotions, distribution... then think of what % of the market that store targets... and how many it would take to target the world...what's the cost of that?

Now think of me... downloading an entire book anywhere in the world at 1.5mb... downloading an entire album at 450mb... took me a few minutes, no going to the store, ect. It's faster and more convenient for me to download stuff than to go out and buy it (not to mention the selection, not having to worry about it being sold out). Sure, there is a cost of maintaining a server, but it's nowhere near the cost of distribution on a large scale.

Sure, there will be people who hang on to the "I want a physical item", but to be honest, it's much more practical to have a device that has 250k books, or 750 albums, or 250 movies than it is to store all that garbage in your own house. No worries with damaging physical media, or being able to find it.. no getting up from the chair to put in a new movie... there's too many benefits to streaming/downloading to list and there's only one of physical media... being able to hold up the disc and say, "I own this"

I believe that sooner or later, people, especially my generation, will give up their hold on individual physical media. Hell, we had a discussion in one of my management classes about blockbuster and almost unanimously the class said, "close all the stores" as a solution to their problems. That gives an idea of how much we care about physical media right now. In 10 years, when downloading 50 gigs will take 10 minutes and storing it will not even take a percent of the average drive.... and more importantly, it is simple as turning on your tv... I believe it will be safe to say that physical media will swiftly decline.

Oh, and I don't own a single book, movie or CD and my life is easier because of it.

exalted512

gmm141 wrote: »

I think the word "revolutionize" is overused.

For example, let us look at the two biggest technologies that have made their way into our lives in the last two decades, the cell phone and the internet.

They have certainly changed the way I do things, but I would not say they revolutionized my life. Added convenience is not revolutionary.

For example I recently bought a new receiver, I went online and bought a receiver. Fifteen years ago, I would have picked up a catalog and ordered a receiver. The end result is the same.

The closest I have ever seen is in the life of teenagers. How many of you have seen two teenagers walking together, heads down, texting each other? Like generations past, these kids not only don't talk to their parents, this generation doesn't even have to talk to their friends.

...Crap, I'm old.

I know it is just semantics but other words would be more apropos... but then again, this thread would be much more bland without the shots polarized by the use of "revolution".

So, nevermind.

Viva la revolucion! Viva la Polk!

Yeah, thats just a semantics thing. To me, revolutionary means something completely changed the way something is done.

Your internet example...revolutionary doesnt necessarily mean it cant be done another way. If that were the case, there would probably only be a handful of things considered revolutionary. Cars? Well, we could walk, etc.

-Cody

sucks2beme

Sometimes the marketplace forces change. If they all pull VHS, cd's, and books from
the shelves, what are you going to do? There's been a lot of that lately.
The big guys are all about control and DRM. If they could whack every hard copy
book, movie, and cd out there, it would all turn into a "pay per use".
Technology isn't always about better. It's about $$$$.

newrival

exalted512 wrote: »

And the kindle is another thing that didnt revolutionize, nor will ever revolutionize anything...its going to be outdated soon with the popularity of tablets...that can do stuff other than be a book...which coincidentally, I also attribute to the iPhone...
-Cody

It's already revolutionized the industry. National Ebook sales have surpassed paperbacks. Just because something gets phased out (yet to be seen) by other similar products doesnt mean it's not revolutionary. Was the Comodore 64, Apple IIe or Original ThinkPad not revolutionaryjust because theyre obsolete?

Kindles, Nooks, etc. have the benefit of being cheap. $140 now as opposed to $499 for an IPad. If I have no need for a tablet, why would I buy one if I'm looking for an EReader?

exalted512

newrival wrote: »

It's already revolutionized the industry. National Ebook sales have surpassed paperbacks. Just because something gets phased out (yet to be seen) by other similar products doesnt mean it's not revolutionary. Was the Comodore 64, Apple IIe or Original ThinkPad not revolutionaryjust because theyre obsolete?

Kindles, Nooks, etc. have the benefit of being cheap. $140 now as opposed to $499 for an IPad. If I have no need for a tablet, why would I buy one if I'm looking for an EReader?

I'm not going to pretend like I researched this, because I haven't, but I highly doubt Ebook sales have been so high because of the kindle, but rather because of computers in general.
-Cody

newrival

Jstas wrote: »

10-15 years ago? None of them. Then again, barely any cellphones had cameras then either.

Now? They all have the option. I held a Compaq tablet PC in my hands with a CD drive in it as well as USB ports, a Firewire jack, wireless network card, touch screen and a PCMCIA port...in 2002. 5 years before the iPhone even hit market and 8 years before the iPad. Granted, at the time, it was a prototype we had for evaluation but it was fully functional. However, the touch screen didn't have a tracking capability like they do now so you couldn't drag icons around without the little stylus it came with.

I had tablets with much less functionality and far more chunkiness in 1998. They were essentially very thin notebook PC's with limited functionality but they were part of an inventory system we were using to track computing equipment.

I think what you site only makes his point. NOW all those things are commonplace. Before the IPhone came aroudnd how many were there? Had you ever heard of an app store before the iphone? hell they're the reason we even use the word app as we do. They ported OSX onto a touchscreen phone, this was HUGE. And multi-touch capacitive screens? How many had them before iPhone? How many now? How many had a reliable easy to use media player? How many youtube videos could you watch on your blackberry?

I've had an iPhone for 4 years and its been great. It changed the mobile experience as we know it. Thats what they DID. Have they changed the game since? Not in my mind. I'm now actually going to switch to Windows Phone 7, where I believe the current innovation is happening. Despite their apparent plateau, the fact the the iPhone changed the "smartphone" paradigm is undeniable

newrival

exalted512 wrote: »

I'm not going to pretend like I researched this, because I haven't, but I highly doubt Ebook sales have been so high because of the kindle, but rather because of computers in general.
-Cody

An interesting theory, but very unlikely considering that over 80% of ebook purchaces were made directly through ereaders (according to PopSci). Perhaps I dont understand your angle, but I dont see how computers have anything to do with it. Next to no one is reading ebooks on their desktops.

cfrizz

Jstas wrote: »

Another one is the "eReaders" like the Kindle, the Nook and that other one that's supposed to be coming out. Barnes & Noble released a press statement just before Christmas last year stating that e-Book sales have been much slower than anticipated. The people who push the Kindle are desperate to get buyers. They can't sell the damn things to save their lives. I think part of the reason is the pricing scheme is like DiVX was. You ":buy" a book but you only get it for a couple of weeks or something like that. Then it expires. At least some of them are like that, maybe not all, but more than a few are. Barnes & Noble showed some sales studies and customer surveys that show people are preferring the physical book because...well, it doesn't expire..

Ah no not quite. The only ebooks that expire in 2 weeks are library ebooks that you download to your pc then onto your reader. BTW, the Kindle cannot do this since it has a different format other than epub/pdf.

But AFAIK, the rest of the non-Kindle readers have the ability to download from librarys. And since you only have a 2 week limit on a borrowed book from the library it's the same.

Ereaders, tablets, & ebooks are slowly but surely climbing. The technology is still in its infancy and we will continue to see growth for quite some time.

cheddar

gmm141 wrote: »

The closest I have ever seen is in the life of teenagers. How many of you have seen two teenagers walking together, heads down, texting each other? Like generations past, these kids not only don't talk to their parents, this generation doesn't even have to talk to their friends.

...Crap, I'm old.

That's pretty funny, 'cause they could just as easily be 'talking' to each other by text as to many friends someplace else. And either way they're still 'talking' to their friends. Rather than previous generations that strapped a walkman or radio to their hip and put on ear phones 24/7 or put a boombox on their shoulder and didn't even have to walk with a friend 'cause they were a party all by themselves...

cokewithvanilla

I just finished reading the OP's post (it was long, sorry :biggrin:). You say things like "sales have not been as much as expected", though you don't say there has been a drastic increase in physical media purchases. Keep in mind, with ebooks being 1.5mb or so, to pirate the entire public library takes only a day or so. Same goes for music. Currently, we lack high res mainstream distribution channels for music and movies, that's true... the only one I can think of is 'illegal'. That doesn't mean someone won't come along with the brilliant idea at some point to charge for what is currently being given away.

The internet access thing based on your home town is irrelevant. I think most surveys put internet access around 75% in the U.S... hell, with almost any new phone you buy, you are required to have a data plan... the device can then be tethered, or used as a wifi hotspot.

I think you are taking statements too hard. I don't think these people are saying that it is "taking over", but they are noticing a trend. It doesn't take a genius to realize that technology is progressing. If you think things like Netflix, itunes (as much as I hate to say it) and ereaders have not changed the way many people acquire media, then you are being naive.

As far as the iphone goes... sure, it wasn't new technology... but you can't deny that it changed the way people think of phones. Windows mobile 5 phones could do a lot that the iphone can do. And touchscreens were nothing new... however... putting a phone that can do as much as the iphone can do into the hands of the average person... that was an accomplishment. Making technology easy enough for grandma to use. Besides that, it started a mobile phone race that is really picking up speed. Dual core phones that double as netbooks? come on... that's progress. Can't you see that some point in the near future, my phone might be as powerful as the laptop I am typing on... the average user might not need a computer, just a monitor/keyboard/mouse and a phone. The iphone started this... it made us rethink phones.

Printing and physical media WILL go out of style... when you cut economic costs greatly while greatly increasing convenience and reducing waste, it's hard to stop that kind of change. Remember when people thought email wouldn't catch on? You sound like that.

On3s&Z3r0s

cokewithvanilla wrote: »

... The iphone started this... it made us rethink phones.

I don't think it made us rethink phones. It made us rethink devices, and there's a difference. The iPhone (especially on AT&T, but even Verizon remains to be seen) was/is garbage as a phone. But it's an amazing computing platform that provoked some pretty cool competition and advancements in the handheld space.

It's an interesting sidenote to this conversation to consider what people actually want out of their technology. Apparently, they didn't want a really good cell phone. What they wanted was something that could be a cell phone if you were willing to put up with poor performance in that regard, but could also do a ton of other things, in many cases better than anything else by virtue of its portability and the way it was able to interact with its environment. But the point is, people were willing to pay a lot for it and make compromises around the primary function of the thing!

It's kinda like audio. How much money has been spent by designers and consumers trying to chase the sound that has been available for, what, 70 years, in tube amplification. And can DVD-Audio or SACD beat a really good vinyl rig for sound quality? And does a microwave make a chicken breast as tasty as slapping the sucker on a good old fashioned open flame? Not by a mile.

I think what technology changes most is the cost, portability, utility, and convenience of things, and the market really likes improvements in those areas. What kinda sucks is when quality goes out the door because the majority of the market wants cheap and easy and barely good enough.

BlueFox

Overall, good post.

cokewithvanilla wrote: »

ICurrently, we lack high res mainstream distribution channels for music and movies, that's true... the only one I can think of is 'illegal'.

Actually, there are legal high-rez download sites.

https://www.hdtracks.com/index.php
http://www.itrax.com/Pages/PostSignUp.php
http://bravurarecords.com/intro.html

There are probably more. I found those at
http://www.computeraudiophile.com/

cokewithvanilla

BlueFox wrote: »

Overall, good post.



Actually, there are legal high-rez download sites.

https://www.hdtracks.com/index.php
http://www.itrax.com/Pages/PostSignUp.php
http://bravurarecords.com/intro.html

There are probably more. I found those at
http://www.computeraudiophile.com/

yes, i've seen sites like this. That's why i said mainstream. I mean a site that you can get anything you want in lossless that most people can recognize. most sites that have lossless audio onnly have a handful of cds.

Many torrent trackers have far more in lossless than those pay sites. and movies in BD50?? don't think you'll find that anywhere but usenet... and maybe something like rapidshare

On3s&Z3r0s wrote: »

I don't think it made us rethink phones. It made us rethink devices,

you're right... the iphone is crappy as a cell phone. I hardly ever make phone calls on my phone...texting mostly... I use the device for internet way more often than for it's phone.

It made us think of a phone as an everything device...and they might become just that... credit card, computer, alarm, gps., car key, house key..... ect

exalted512

newrival wrote: »

An interesting theory, but very unlikely considering that over 80% of ebook purchaces were made directly through ereaders (according to PopSci). Perhaps I dont understand your angle, but I dont see how computers have anything to do with it. Next to no one is reading ebooks on their desktops.

Ok...I've done my research now.

EBooks have out sold hardcover (announced last year) and paperback books(announced this year) when you buy them FROM Amazon.

Meaning, out of Amazon's sales, EBooks have outsold regular books...but ONLY Amazon. Which makes sense...as Amazon makes the Kindle.

From this article:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/richard-adams-blog/2011/jan/28/amazon-kindle-ebook-paperback-sales

"Amazon's ambiguous use of figures suggests that the online retailer still sells 120 print books for every 100 ebooks sold. "

From this article:
http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100916/23094211059/don-t-be-confused-by-amazon-s-ebook-sales-claims.shtml

"Amazon covers 90% of ebook sale and that it only represents 19% of the overall book market"

So, from article 1, 55% of Amazons sales are print books. (even though they are 90% responsible for eBook sales).

So of Amazon's 19% market share in book sales, only 45% of that is eBooks. Which means eBooks account for 8.5% of the total market share for book sales. Then, you said 80% of those are for things like the Kindle. So the Kindle (and similar products) represent 6.8% of the total market share for books.

I also wasnt suggesting theres a big market for eBooks on your desktop, but rather laptops. And with the increasing popularity of smart phones and tablets, I see the Kindle as nothing more than a small stepping stone from the book to a computerized version. I had college books on my computer years before the kindle came out.

So, I stand by statement of Kindles are not revolutionary. I do think, eBooks will someday be the standard, but not for viewing on something like the Kindle. Tablets are coming down in price too fast and the Kindle not enough for it to last very long (in my mind).

I DO think the Kindle has potential (though not in its current state) to replace text books in public schools. It needs to add the ability to make notes with a stylus or something. They should probably make it bigger too. I couldnt think of a better use for it. (and so it has the possibility of revolutionizing textbooks in public schools)

It also has great features over a tablet, like no glare and a month-long battery life...but it kind of ends there. I certainly think it has its place, but I dont think its going to revolutionize anything other than what i already mentioned.

eBooks on the other hand, I feel will eventually become the 'norm', but not anytime soon, and it'll be on computers (tablets) and smart phones, not on things that ONLY do books.
-Cody

exalted512

And to elaborate on the Kindle as a textbook...it has soo many possibilities.

What I'm thinking:

Get to class. Everyone turns their kindle on. The teacher tells her Kindle to open to pg 130 of their text book. All the students' Kindles automatically turn to pg 130. If the teacher makes a note(via keyboard or stylus...it needs both) or highlights something, she can do so on EVERYONES kindle. Of course, as a student you have the ability to erase/add/edit those remarks.

Homework time! Remember those questions at the end of the chapter? Teacher circles those questions she wants answered, you write in your answer and submit it all electronically. Which could also grade automatically if it was multiple choice or something of that nature. Imagine finishing your homework the night before, submitting it online, and knowing your grade immediately. If you dont have internet at home, thats fine, youll find out as soon as you go to school the next day.

Also have a calendar function that your teachers can add to so you always know when your homework is due. It can list all your grades your teacher has inputted so you always know where you stand.

It will have limited email functions, so your teachers can email you and you can email your teachers and students (but there needs to be limits on when you can send/receive to limit 'texting' in class).

All your class notes and homework would be in one place. I would also imagine itd be a good idea to give the schools the ability to back up all your work as well.

And it'd eliminate your 7 yr old carrying around 50 lbs of books, binders, and journals.

Maybe I should start making these things, I could make millions.
-Cody

cokewithvanilla

Everything has it's purpose. If you do a whole lot of reading, a kindle will have an advantage over any tablet. Mainly battery life, size, weight, screen type. I have my iphone, which is a media player, a 32 gig one at that...but I still have 2 others for various purposes. If I use my iphone to listen to music, I can expect that it will last maybe 6 hours... MAYBE. For that reason alone I have a dedicated player.

Also, keep in mind when you say the kindle isn't revolutionary... if a book takes 10 hours to read, and back in the day when kindles were developed... a tablet weighed a crap ton and battery life was around 3 hours (not to mention the cost)... that wasn't a solution for reading books. The kindle literally allowed you to throw out books. Just because you can do it, doesn't mean something didn't change the way people do things. Right now, I can DO a lot with a bucket of computer parts and some wires... but when you make it so the average individual can do all that with the press of a button... then you've changed things.

cnh

cokewithvanilla wrote: »

Well, think about this... think about a bookstore, a video store or a cd store... think about the massive space required (borders books, for example) to store all these obscure items that no one buys. Then think of how many are bought each day. Think about the staff, promotions, distribution... then think of what % of the market that store targets... and how many it would take to target the world...what's the cost of that?

Now think of me... downloading an entire book anywhere in the world at 1.5mb... downloading an entire album at 450mb... took me a few minutes, no going to the store, ect. It's faster and more convenient for me to download stuff than to go out and buy it (not to mention the selection, not having to worry about it being sold out). Sure, there is a cost of maintaining a server, but it's nowhere near the cost of distribution on a large scale.

Sure, there will be people who hang on to the "I want a physical item", but to be honest, it's much more practical to have a device that has 250k books, or 750 albums, or 250 movies than it is to store all that garbage in your own house. No worries with damaging physical media, or being able to find it.. no getting up from the chair to put in a new movie... there's too many benefits to streaming/downloading to list and there's only one of physical media... being able to hold up the disc and say, "I own this"

I believe that sooner or later, people, especially my generation, will give up their hold on individual physical media. Hell, we had a discussion in one of my management classes about blockbuster and almost unanimously the class said, "close all the stores" as a solution to their problems. That gives an idea of how much we care about physical media right now. In 10 years, when downloading 50 gigs will take 10 minutes and storing it will not even take a percent of the average drive.... and more importantly, it is simple as turning on your tv... I believe it will be safe to say that physical media will swiftly decline.

Oh, and I don't own a single book, movie or CD and my life is easier because of it.

Obviously a generational difference here! Imagine a 'writer' siting in a barren office....no books, no CDs, no Vinyl, no art on the walls! Nothing of obvious human manufacture or creativity except a small stark tablet and maybe an iphone on his/her desk. Not even a good sound system--because that's not a biggie for the earbud/itunes generation? It would feel like being in solitary confinement to me, personally. Everything in digital form on a SS drive? Convenient yes. Inspiring, not so much. I find most of my ideas wandering amongst these 'things' I own or borrow from a library. My office is a space shared by some of the greatest minds of all time--I can see each one on the shelf and have a sense of their corporeality. That space itself is amazing, uplifting and inspiring. And I can't imagine giving it up for an ebook? Although that has its place as has been well documented above. It would be like asking a painter to give up his/her canvas, brush and oils, and only paint using an app on an ipad?

cnh