COVID-19

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  • tonybtonyb Posts: 32,487
    teekay0007 wrote: »
    Kex wrote: »
    Ultimately, though, testing doesn’t matter as much as dying. Many deaths will not be properly counted (either in the U.S. or elsewhere), since the only deaths that are easy to count are (a) those that occur in a hospital or retirement hospice, and (b) those that are actually tested for a cause of death.

    I think you're trying to say, Kex, that the coronavirus deaths are underreported. It's believed that a lot of the death counts for coronavirus are actually inflated. The reported deaths in the United States this year for pneumonias are significantly lower than usual. Many who study and report on this sort of thing are of the belief that it's likely that quite a few of the pneumonia deaths this year - a number that has been pretty stable year-to-year over the past several years - are actually being incorrectly documented as coronavirus deaths. Others have stated that anyone that tests positive for coronavirus that dies of any cause (ie. heart attack, kidney failure, diabetes complications, etc.) are likewise, erroneously lumped into the 'coronavirus death' category.

    Bingo.

    Yet to be fair some do go unreported as well. How we report deaths, as well as any other country reports death, is all different. The criteria isn't the same, thus the numbers will always have a certain slant to them.

    I think someone brought up an example of getting hit by a Bus, and the coroner tests you for CV and puts that on your death certificate. No...pretty sure it was the bus that killed ya. People with influenza A carry many of the same symptoms also, betcha they are getting counted as CV deaths too.

    Point is, it goes both ways....which is why most times you have to take these numbers with a grain of salt.
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  • JstasJstas Posts: 14,223
    edited April 8
    Kex wrote: »
    Jstas wrote: »
    You have zero clue how to do statistical analysis.
    Maybe I’ll do a version for dummies later, but not today.

    So I'm a dummy now?

    I see.

    For a guy who is supposed to be fabulously wealthy you sure are a patsy willing to believe anything that's put in front of you as long as it jives with what's in your head as "right".

    None of this makes any sense:
    Kex wrote:
    Louisiana, with a population of about 5 million, has tested almost 75,000: more than any state, per capita, other than New York. Even more than most European countries (per capita), in fact, other than Switzerland and some countries in Scandinavia.

    Arkansas has tested fewer than 14,000 for a population of 3 million, which means it is toward to bottom for testing.

    Ultimately, though, testing doesn’t matter as much as dying. Many deaths will not be properly counted (either in the U.S. or elsewhere), since the only deaths that are easy to count are (a) those that occur in a hospital or retirement hospice, and (b) those that are actually tested for a cause of death.

    Louisiana is third in the nation in deaths per capita (after New York and New Jersey). Arkansas (officially, at least) has just under 1,000 deaths from COVID in total.

    There's no "for dummies" version here because this isn't even logically correct, forget factually correct.

    Your first mistake is that you make assumptions about the data and then further those assumptions to make false correlations to unrelated stats that you then claim are relevant without any further proof than your broken logic. That's an appeal to authority without actually establishing that authority other than alluding to yourself as the authority without, again, establishment of a case for your authority.

    75,000 tests out of 5M people is 1.5% of the population tested. Without actually knowing the sampling procedures or any demographics of the population, that 1.5% is so small that it could be a rounding error or a margin of error. If we had two data points, man or woman, for 5M people, a sample size of .5% would be adequate to represent the population. But we're not doing that. We're looking for infected people who have COVID-19. We're not even doing a differential against uninfected people. We're just testing for infection.

    The problem there is that if you have 75,000 cases tested. Well, "almost" 75K tested. You don't give us infected vs. not infected numbers. You only tell us it's more than any other country/state/whatever. Then, you go and tell us about Arkansas with only 14,000 tested. So what? I thought we were talking about Louisiana here?

    But that's where your stats stop. So I don't know what you're going on about for the rest of your post.

    You're holding up Louisiana as being better than Arkansas and the only difference that you've furnished is that Louisiana has more people than Arkansas. That alone, right there, accounts for the disparate testing numbers. There's over twice as many people there so it stands to reason that there would be over twice as many tests performed. But you fail to address further demographics that would account for things like distribution of population considering a large majority of Louisiana's population resides in a major U.S. city, New Orleans and that Arkansas is a very rural population with large swaths of land separating people. It's harder to reach the entire population of Arkansas quickly than it is to reach the entire population of Louisiana since at least a third of Louisiana's population lives in New Orleans.

    But you don't stop there. You jump to death stats and say that testing doesn't matter as much as dying and you couldn't be further from the truth. How are you going to get death numbers from COVID-19 without testing and confirming the deaths? You're not. You need to establish a baseline otherwise every death can be attributed to the disease. Whether you rode your bicycle into a pole and cracked your dome or you died of an acute respiratory infection and the complications it has, without testing you have two potential deaths from COVID-19. One that is plausible and one that is dubious at best.

    Then, for some reason, you go back to the testing numbers to illustrate that people in Arkansas are dying more often than people in Louisiana and ignore your previous inference that testing doesn't matter, death does and you further ignore every other demographic from population size and density to actual testing data on gender, health condition, age and so on.

    Not only are you making spurious correlations and hasty generalizations to build a straw man argument for your case that has no structure around it but you're begging the claim as well to make a red herring that makes a plea to the common man to get emotional based support for you stance from your peers.

    You're peddling fear and uncertainty to manipulate people into seeing your broken logic that ignores facts solely to win people to your side. Then when they question something you said, you gaslight them and tell them that's not what you said/happened despite there being written proof of it.

    Stop it with your fear mongering and pseudo-intellectual superiority campaign. You'll ill-equipped for it and it's gone beyond tiresome. Now it's loathsome. Not only that but your argument style is nothing more than scare tactics which is a logical fallacy in and of itself.
    Post edited by Jstas on
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  • tonybtonyb Posts: 32,487
    sucks2beme wrote: »
    This is like the 60's reporting of the Vietnam war.
    Giving daily death counts doesn't reflect the status of the war.
    When the cases slow down and stop, then it means something.
    I don't like people dying. But the whole obsession with daily
    death scores is a bit morbid.

    They don't peddle those being released, or conquering this virus. That might give hope to people, can't have that.

    I also find it funny that nobody last year was giving out daily death counts with the flu, or other diseases. Those numbers might have scared more, but...there wasn't an agenda to be played yet.

    Still a long way to go to reach those 240k death tolls they were predicting, which was lowered from around 1.7 million. I see now some are forecasting between 80-100k deaths now. The curves are flattening, more are being released than new cases taken in, and we are now in the second week of a 2 week period we were told was going to be the apex.

    Or are those goal posts now going to move too.

    Not even the experts know, all they can tell you is how to prepare and protect yourselves, research what may work to cure or slow down the virus. Everyone has a computer model for this thing and none have been correct so far. They just keep plugging in new data to make a new model to make new projections of what the future holds. We make policy off of these projections....because we don't know. We're trying to prepare for the worst and hope for the best, but sometime soon we're going to have to assume the worst is behind us and move forward.
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  • tonybtonyb Posts: 32,487
    edited April 8
    LMAO...dude, that wasn't meant as an actual event. Untwist those panties. :)

    Dr. Brix said it herself about the CV deaths and as long as you have the virus and die from other things, your counted as a CV death. That is not misinformation.

    Civil liberties are being tested by some who over extend their powers for the "health of the general public".

    When you get arrested for driving around in your car....you are not a threat to the general public.

    When you get arrested for playing ball with your daughter, in an empty park, the health of the general public is not threatened.

    Just 2 examples.

    The other day a group of us went over to my in-laws to celebrate their 56th wedding anniversary. We order food, brought some wine, sat in the driveway while observing social distancing rules. Cop drives by, says nothing and just keeps going. Why ? Because the health of the general public was not threatened. Some others though, want to act like little dictators and start arresting people when no apparent threats to anyone is prevalent. Wearing a mask , or not wearing a mask in public is a fine ? Right...

    Which....if all these masks are available for millions of people to purchase, how is it that we have a shortage for hospitals ?
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  • txcoastal1txcoastal1 Posts: 11,480
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  • shawn474shawn474 Posts: 3,134
    edited April 8
    That's actually NOT what Dr. BIRX said......IF the virus can exacerbate a condition and has potential to be a contributing cause of death, then yes you will be classified as a COVID19 casualty. If you die of something unrelated but are COVID19, you will not be classified as a COVID19 casualty (ie- getting hit by a bus or texting, driving and wrapping your car around a tree).

    The fear mongering goes both ways as well. The issue at hand is this - in poker terms we are "pot committed" at this point. We are all in on this and wherever you fall on the question of whether or not we reacted too early or too late, whether the response was too involved or not involved enough is not important.....YET. There will be time to pick this apart and hopefully be better in the future for similar events. The WORST thing that could happen is we all get lulled into a complacency, stop listening to the experts (whether you want to admit it or not this IS the way scientific studies work - the evolution of rates are calculated as interventional measures are put in place. SOOOOOOO, the fluctuation actually happens ALL the time. Why people want to harp on that in this case to further a narrative that "these people don't know what they are doing" is laughable and demonstrates an extreme ignorance of scientific studies. I have heard the phrase "I would rather go back month too late than a day too early." Our economy cannot absorb another spike if we were to lift the recommendations.....

    And I wear boxer briefs..... :D
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  • tonybtonyb Posts: 32,487
    Re-read your first paragraph, it contradicts itself. "potential to be a contributing", it has that potential in just about anyone. Next claim is if you have the virus but die of something else, you won't be counted. I'm calling B.S.

    We have cases here that people die from pneumonia, have not been tested for CV, but attributed to the count on the death certificate. That's from ICU nurses in the field, front liners as Joey would call them.

    Scientific studies are all well and good, skewed depending on who's paying who for the results....just look how the FDA operates. However when we make policy that will affect the whole country, peoples lives and well being, I for one would want a little more accuracy. If they don't know, then say they don't know, instead of computer models that don't work. Science and guessing are 2 different things.



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  • JstasJstas Posts: 14,223

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  • shawn474shawn474 Posts: 3,134
    edited April 8
    tonyb wrote: »
    Re-read your first paragraph, it contradicts itself. "potential to be a contributing", it has that potential in just about anyone. Next claim is if you have the virus but die of something else, you won't be counted. I'm calling B.S.

    We have cases here that people die from pneumonia, have not been tested for CV, but attributed to the count on the death certificate. That's from ICU nurses in the field, front liners as Joey would call them.

    Scientific studies are all well and good, skewed depending on who's paying who for the results....just look how the FDA operates. However when we make policy that will affect the whole country, peoples lives and well being, I for one would want a little more accuracy. If they don't know, then say they don't know, instead of computer models that don't work. Science and guessing are 2 different things.



    Tony, you can call BS all you want. That's not actually what I said if you were to break down what I actually said instead of what you chose to hear. I am not going to get into a back and forth with you again. There is NO WAY that people are having CV19 as cause of death on their death certificate without having a positive test. Not one coroner would get away with that. Period. That's anecdotal at best - especially for someone who prides themselves on FACTS.

    Your view of science and mine will differ altogether; I work in the medical field for 25+ years and am an evidence based practitioner. Take that for what it's worth. We can agree to disagree on the merits of science and how these studies evolve.

    At the end of this, we will have a MUCH MORE accurate picture of the facts. I choose to follow the trends as they come instead of playing an "I told you so" game throughout every hour of this. The truth will lie somewhere in between both camps.
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  • tonybtonyb Posts: 32,487
    Of course....Shawn, your not the only one working in the medical fields or have family in those fields. You can doubt all you like, no skin of my nose, all I can do is repeat what my family on the front lines see and hear.

    I do pride myself on facts, but most the time in this thread they are ignored. Computer models, which I have a problem with obviously, are not based on facts but guesses. A better example would be making charts from past data we've taken from other diseases....facts, then chart them. Making charts before the facts come in is basically inciting fear.

    Since this is a new virus, we have no facts or data points to go on, everything is a guess or a comparison to similar viruses. I get that, but real science has to study things for awhile, test subjects over a period of time and draw some conclusions. We are doing that on the fly today, which is why info seems so scattered about. We are the test subjects, but we are not in a controlled environment, opinions will vary.

    It may take years before some real data is represented in charts. My criticisms come from a point of fear mongering for agendas, real world applications, preparedness or lack there of, responsibility, media , actions taken and when, and by whom. It will be even more interesting to see how we prepare for the next virus because we all know this won't be the last we'll experience. While it's impossible to predict which virus will hit us next, it is imperative to have a world wide cooperation and clamp down of the source/area asap. This B.S. trying to cover it up for whatever reason cannot be allowed to happen down the road. Consequences need to be harsh and swift to discourage the behavior.
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  • shawn474shawn474 Posts: 3,134
    Tony,
    Again I think we certainly have common points to agree on here. Well said
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  • BlueFoxBlueFox Posts: 13,784
    More data is becoming available, and it appears the government was warned in November of 2019 that something was occurring in China.

    “US intelligence officials were warning as far back as late November that the novel coronavirus was spreading through China's Wuhan region and posing a threat to its people and daily life, according to ABC News.

    The US military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) compiled a November intelligence report in which "analysts concluded it could be a cataclysmic event," one of the sources of the NCMI's report told ABC News.

    The source told ABC News that the intelligence report was then briefed "multiple times" to the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon's Joint Staff and the White House.”

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/us-intelligence-report-china-coronavirus/index.html
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  • huggieshuggies Posts: 143
    Kex wrote: »
    • U.S.A. exceeds 400,000 cases.
    • Almost 2,000 deaths in a single day. The worst ever for any country.
    • Deaths now at 3.2% of total cases tested.

    rbfnmhocnb05.jpeg

    I think the most important numbers here are the amount of new cases reported. It's been fairly flat over the last 5 days. That's highly encouraging. No exponential growth there.
  • KexKex Posts: 4,329
    huggies wrote: »
    I think the most important numbers here are the amount of new cases reported. It's been fairly flat over the last 5 days. That's highly encouraging. No exponential growth there.
    Joey_V wrote: »
    I believe social distancing has been working.

    Well said @huggies, and thank you 🙏 for noticing!

    That was the whole point in posting the week long progression numbers that seem to have provoked heated discussion, and claims of fear mongering.
    Alea jacta est!
  • sucks2bemesucks2beme Posts: 5,116
    The issue here is there were two schools of thought.
    Some were concerned, others weren't. WHO wasn't
    very helpful. That was supposed to be their main purpose.
    I'm sure the opinion at the white house was split as well.
    And some of the response was based on not panicking, and
    only doing the shutdown when needed. Shutting down last
    November would of server no purpose.
    Early March would of been about right. But until the poo hit
    the fan, nobody was going to go along with it.
    Even after it was plainly an issue, people still were dragging
    their feet. That's why NYC got hit hard.
    I'm sure we could find 100's of people saying it was trouble back then.
    My sister in law says every flu season is the end of the world.
    That and I need to repent.
    "The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg." --Thomas Jefferson
  • huggieshuggies Posts: 143
    Kex wrote: »
    huggies wrote: »
    I think the most important numbers here are the amount of new cases reported. It's been fairly flat over the last 5 days. That's highly encouraging. No exponential growth there.
    Joey_V wrote: »
    I believe social distancing has been working.

    Well said @huggies, and thank you 🙏 for noticing!

    That was the whole point in posting the week long progression numbers that seem to have provoked heated discussion, and claims of fear mongering.

    Well, I don't know if those bullet points are yours or part of the chart. They put the emphasis on the deaths. Which causes some of the angst.
  • KexKex Posts: 4,329
    That could be 🤔 but I’ve also posted more than once about how significant progress was being made in both Italy and Spain. Those numbers mean that we can expect similar progress, and it’s already starting to happen, as you pointed out.
    Alea jacta est!
  • sucks2bemesucks2beme Posts: 5,116
    CNN has taken some really lopsided positions on things.
    Fox is biased to the right, but they don't make a secret of it.
    I have to go elsewhere to get honest reporting.
    I miss Walter Cronkite.
    "The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg." --Thomas Jefferson
  • muncybobmuncybob Posts: 2,402
    Sometimes it is interesting to view facts/opinions from a foreign source. I still check UK sources since coming back to the states. Here's an interesting tid bit:
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8199719/Dr-Tedros-Ghebreyesus-career-politician-running-China-centric-WHO.html
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  • tonybtonyb Posts: 32,487
    You have to remember too, different sources of information have to be collaborated in order to draw a consensus leading to a course of action. You just don't fly off the handle over everything you hear....as a government anyway. Make sense ?

    Great.....now we are into the 3rd week of January and the WHO is telling us, Dr. Fauci is telling us......nothing to see here, don't worry, blah blah. These are the people and organizations whose very word dictates policy within governments. Can't prepare for an event not suppose to happen. Then all of a sudden it was def con 4 and why don't we have what we need.

    Somebody missed that 911 alert....and now the whole planet suffers.
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