COVID-19

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  • GardenstaterGardenstater Posts: 920
    edited April 4
    daddyjt wrote: »
    anonymouse wrote: »
    daddyjt wrote: »
    Kex wrote: »
    of0s741ficn1.jpeg

    Maybe my 7th grade math is a bit rusty, but that chart sure does not look like exponential progression....

    There are some really decent courses on Khan academy.

    So you are saying that the posted chart IS an example of exponential progression? If so, I’m glad you know where to expand your math comprehension - good luck at the academy:-)

    I think the point is that it is definitely not linear. The slope of the curve is increasing. Whether it more precisely fits an exponential curve, a cubic curve, etc.. I don't see any point in arguing about that. We know that mathematically, without social distancing, masks, stay at home orders, etc.. the curve would definitely be exponential. Any deviation that makes the rate of increase of the slope less means those measures are helping. The increasing testing that is being done makes analysis a little more difficult and tends to increase the rate of increase of the slope in the short term, as Kex pointed out previously.
    George / NJ

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  • mrbigbluelightmrbigbluelight Posts: 7,876
    Gaawwwwwdddddaaammm Larry .....
    ....balloon......TP........ Sewer.......

    :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
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  • mrbigbluelightmrbigbluelight Posts: 7,876
    BTW in these troubling times I've invented a new drinking game: every time the word "exponential" is mentioned I take a drink.

    So Mewry chrissmush eberrybody !!
    🎅
    MrBigBlueLight
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    Shifting to Plan B+
  • muncybobmuncybob Posts: 2,297
    F1nut wrote: »
    anonymouse wrote: »
    The issue with this **** of a virus is that its hugely contagious before its symptomatic. So for example, you have this happy kid that has the virus, shows no signs and in a single day infects hundreds of others. Then we are screwed because those hundreds also keep infecting others.

    The "common flu" is spread the same way. Hello!!!

    Yes, but from the training I've had and the medical reports easily found, it appears COVID19 is at least twice as contagious. So. it's likely there will be apprx. twice as many sick and dead until a vaccine of some sort is developed.
    Yep, my name really is Bob.
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  • GardenstaterGardenstater Posts: 920
    muncybob wrote: »
    F1nut wrote: »
    anonymouse wrote: »
    The issue with this **** of a virus is that its hugely contagious before its symptomatic. So for example, you have this happy kid that has the virus, shows no signs and in a single day infects hundreds of others. Then we are screwed because those hundreds also keep infecting others.

    The "common flu" is spread the same way. Hello!!!

    Yes, but from the training I've had and the medical reports easily found, it appears COVID19 is at least twice as contagious. So. it's likely there will be apprx. twice as many sick and dead until a vaccine of some sort is developed.

    And 10x more fatal.
    George / NJ

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  • Dennis GardnerDennis Gardner Posts: 4,866
    Walmart is starting their big changes today. Our 160k sq ft superstore is only allowing 20 shoppers at a time. All areas other than food and pharma are blocked off. Lines will be long and frustrating for sure.
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  • Dennis GardnerDennis Gardner Posts: 4,866
    so4ats9sy8gc.jpeg
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  • BlueBirdMusicBlueBirdMusic Registered User Posts: 1,061
    I watched most of those hospital videos above. I believe the creators are being disingenuous and create a disservice to anyone who needs assistance due to COVID-19. I believe the videos were an organized undertaking to spread a predetermined message. I urge you not to read into their apparent messages.

    I don't believe I have read that Emergency Rooms are being overrun at hospitals. It is the ICU wards that are the major concerns.

    Most hospitals have implemented a "NO VISITORS" Policy. Most hospitals have provided instructions to the public on what to do if one suspects a COVID-19 infection. Most hospitals advise you to stay home (CDC); a telephone number is given for you to call and arrange the next step. If you are in really serious condition, I doubt you would be able to drive to ER; you would probably go by ambulance.

    The largest hospital (Kennestone Hospital Marietta GA) in the town I live has set up a series of outside tents to receive any patients who suspect COCID-19. They are separated from the "regular" ER patients.

    My personal doctors and hospital of choice are connected to the Piedmont Healthcare System and are in the downtown Atlanta location.

    On March 16, I received an "COVID-19 Urgent Message" from my Primary Care practice that included:

    COVID-19 Urgent Message
    Effective immediately and until further notice, we WILL NOT see sick patients in our office unless they have passed a rigorous screening process by our Physician Assistants and Nurse Practitioners. This has been a difficult decision, but patient safety and public health is the driving force behind it.

    We are committed to doing what we can to help our patients who are ill. If you are sick, you will need to call the office. Our staff will route calls to our Physician Assistants and Nurse Practitioners to triage you over the phone. NO WALK-IN PATIENTS WILL BE SEEN! Those practitioners will work with your primary care provider to determine your treatment and you will be scheduled if you need to be seen. However, it is our goal to keep sick patients quarantined at home to prevent the spread of illness among the general population.



    Here is what Piedmont Hospital shows on its website:

    How Piedmont is Keeping You Safe

    Our top priority is the safety of patients, staff and visitors. To better protect everyone, Piedmont is not permitting visitors except for in rare circumstances.

    We work closely with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other agencies to stay updated, and our COVID-19 policies may change as new information becomes available.


    If You Suspect You Have COVID-19

    Please stay home and call 866-460-1119 from Monday to Friday, 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. If you meet the criteria for testing, you will be assigned an appointment at one of our four drive-through testing centers throughout the state. These are appointment-only and do not accept walk-ups.

    If you have emergency warning signs, seek medical attention immediately.



    Visitor Policies

    Visitors are currently not allowed at any Piedmont hospitals, except in special circumstances.

    The only visitors currently permitted are:

    essential family in cases like end-of-life care
    labor and delivery patients
    legal guardians of minors receiving care


    Now about the Emergency Rooms at Piedmont.

    From the website at 9:54 on Saturday April 04, 2020 here are the "wait times" at all of the Piedmont Hospitals through Georgia. It shows that the wait times are minimal at most Emergency Rooms which one would expect if the Emergency Rooms are reserved for non-COVID-19 patients. (The screen picture I made is cutoff and does not show all locations.) So you can take a look and see the wait time and make an appointment.

    elig10wqznzg.png

  • kevhed72kevhed72 Posts: 4,125
    anonymouse wrote: »
    Was there a point in that video? Some hospitals are empty, which is great. We should celebrate that, for now. Make no mistake, as with all exponential growth functions, when the effects start to matter, its too late. Perhaps those folks just went to hospitals at lower ends of the growth curve. In 10 days they should visit those same sites and report. If it is still the same, I'll celebrate.

    On the optimistic side, here is one data point that I'm excited about: This is not a good sample - it only measures readings from kinsa internet connected thermometers across the country https://healthweather.us/?mode=Trends, but it does show that with the exception of TX, TN, KY, ME, and some of CA, that social distancing seems to be resulting in lower numbers of abnormal body temperature readings from Kinsa thermometers. Now I imagine that Kinsa thermometers are owned by relatively sophisticated buyers who might also listen to social distancing news and warnings, but its still positive.

    The video is a compilation of conspiracy theorists showing up at parking lots, with no date stamp as to when the videos were taken. Also, families are being asked to stay away for obvious reasons....but none of that fits the hoax narrative which was started back in Feb. Also, WTF goes out during a pandemic to hang around a hospital!?!
  • tonybtonyb Posts: 32,433
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  • motorhead43026motorhead43026 Posts: 3,643
    BTW in these troubling times I've invented a new drinking game: every time the word "exponential" is mentioned I take a drink.

    So Mewry chrissmush eberrybody !!
    🎅

    Don't take a drink everyime " narrative" or "agenda" are mentioned, you will be dead in 24hrs or less.
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  • kevhed72kevhed72 Posts: 4,125
    edited April 4
    Fear...or reality. What people have to ask themselves is....if we had the other party in the WH, would I have the same opinions about the pandemic and our response as a nation.
  • tonybtonyb Posts: 32,433
    kevhed72 wrote: »
    Fear...or reality. What people have to ask themselves is....if we had the other party in the WH, would I have the same opinions about the pandemic and our response as a nation.

    A good way to judge that is by looking at the last pandemic that the "other party" was in charge of. I think those answers would be crystal clear.
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  • tonybtonyb Posts: 32,433
    Toolfan66 wrote: »
    bbdcivws1b68.jpeg

    Love this, but ya know it would never work on NY style pizza, all that cheese would be sliding down the dudes face. lol
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  • GardenstaterGardenstater Posts: 920
    tonyb wrote: »
    Toolfan66 wrote: »
    bbdcivws1b68.jpeg

    Love this, but ya know it would never work on NY style pizza, all that cheese would be sliding down the dudes face. lol

    Yep and also in NYC it is known as a 9.95 mask.
    George / NJ

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  • maximillianmaximillian Posts: 2,113
    What is it with posting short statements as an image in 72 point font? If we all did that it would ruin a forum. Lazy to type it out, or is it another form of virtual screaming. Yes, I know you "found" it like this, but the point is the same. Please stop doing it.
  • anonymouseanonymouse Posts: 2,640
    You want to celebrate what tonyb? If 50-60% of the US Population gets infected, which is what the models predict if we do not social distance, and we have a 98.54% survival rate, that implies a 1.46% death rate. Do the math and we end up with 2.4 to 2.9 million deaths. You call this fear mongering, but it is straight math based on the models.
  • tonybtonyb Posts: 32,433
    anonymouse wrote: »
    You want to celebrate what tonyb? If 50-60% of the US Population gets infected, which is what the models predict if we do not social distance, and we have a 98.54% survival rate, that implies a 1.46% death rate. Do the math and we end up with 2.4 to 2.9 million deaths. You call this fear mongering, but it is straight math based on the models.

    Tell which models were actually proven correct, on anything. Certainly not this virus.
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  • anonymouseanonymouse Posts: 2,640
    F1nut wrote: »

    The "common flu" is spread the same way. Hello!!!

    Hi there F1. You are partly correct. There are 3 main differences:
    1) COVID19 sheds (and is contagious), more days before symptoms show. This makes it harder to isolate carriers. This is why we are all being asked to isolate, to save the herd, not ourselves.
    2) The death rate is above the common flu. 1.46% if we accept tonyb's celebration.
    3) We have no herd immunity as this is the first time around, so the infection is only expected to plateau when we get to 50-60% of the total herd.

    The death rate may be lower than 1.46%, since we are only counting tested and positive people in the numbers, but even then you end up with models in the several hundred thousand range.

    I hope these numbers are wrong, but it is what the math yields today with the observed data.
  • anonymouseanonymouse Posts: 2,640
    edited April 4
    tonyb wrote: »
    Tell which models were actually proven correct, on anything. Certainly not this virus.

    All models are wrong, some are useful.

    Here is what you may consider doing for yourself. Create a spreadsheet, change the assumptions. If you do not believe 50-60% of us will get infected - change that to 20%. If you do not believe 1.46% (your celebration happy dance), not mine, cut that in half. You still end up with nearly half a million deaths.

    Do the math. What you will realize is that the latest numbers being spouted by the WH represent the most optimistic scenario of how this could play out. If we end up with 200-300K deaths before the fall, that will be reason to celebrate. So many things have to go right to keep the death count that low.

    What is irresponsible is spouting statistics when you do not make the models.
  • tonybtonyb Posts: 32,433
    Hmmm, haven't seen any country with losses in the hundreds of thousands. I know we lost 400k in WW2, I'm highly doubtful we'll lose 4-5 times as many as a world war.

    Italy, obviously one of the hardest hit countries, only has around 15k. World wide, since Italy isn't an apples to apples comparison, so lets take the whole rest of the planet..........total so far is around 60-70k. Did those same models account for the population of the planet assuming a 50-60% infection rate ? Then your models are just guesses, nothing more, and not exact science. Same computer models used predicting climate change I bet, which none have come true also.

    I am willing to concede though, China probably has way more deaths they haven't reported. Most likely in the tens of thousands under reported.

    All we can do is wait and see, take the proper precautions. In the end, the numbers will tell a more complete picture.
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  • msgmsg Posts: 5,558
    Walmart is starting their big changes today. Our 160k sq ft superstore is only allowing 20 shoppers at a time. All areas other than food and pharma are blocked off. Lines will be long and frustrating for sure.
    Dennis, is that store offering pickup or delivery services as well?
    I disabled signatures.
  • gmcmangmcman Posts: 1,560
    This mimics what Joey said in the beginning, don't think it was posted. Video is a few weeks old, wife showed me this so thought I would share.

    Some mild language

  • verbverb Posts: 10,155
    Grandpa busting a move with his granddaughter! Social distancing, and love, at it's finest! Awesome! :smile:

    4jcnrzj33kow.png
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  • verbverb Posts: 10,155
    F1nut wrote: »
    Nightfall wrote: »
    I'd even take a pack of Scott's 600 grit at this point.

    I've got a few hundred sheets of 600 grit wet/dry here. Want some....lol

    New, or, ahem, used? :smile:
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    Office: PC,EAR Acute CD Player,EAR 834L Pre,Northstar Designs Intenso DAC,PASS ACA Monoblocks,Denon UDR-F10 Cassette,Acoustic Technologies Classic FR Speakers,SVS SB12 Plus sub,MIT AVt2 speaker cables,IFI Purifier2,AQ Cinnamon USB cable,Groneberg Quatro Reference IC's
    Spare Room: Antique Sound Labs Wave AV-8 Monoblocks,Tisbury Mini Passive Pre,Tjoeb 99 tube CD player (modified Marantz CD-38),Analysis Plus Oval 9's,Zu Jumpers,AudioEngine B1 Streamer,Klipsch RB-61 v2,SVS PB1000 sub,Blue Jeans RCA IC's
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  • verbverb Posts: 10,155
    Basement: Polk SDA SRS,Cary SLP-05 Pre,Enlightened Audio Designs CD Transport,Northstar Designs Excelsio DAC,Cambridge 851N streamer,Marantz SA-14 SACD,McIntosh MC300 Amp,Silnote Morpheus Ref2 Digital Cable,Furman 15PFi Power Conditioner,Pangea Power Cables,Wireworld Oasis 8 RCA IC's,MIT Shotgun S3 IC's,MIT Shotgun S1 Bi-Wire speaker cables
    Office: PC,EAR Acute CD Player,EAR 834L Pre,Northstar Designs Intenso DAC,PASS ACA Monoblocks,Denon UDR-F10 Cassette,Acoustic Technologies Classic FR Speakers,SVS SB12 Plus sub,MIT AVt2 speaker cables,IFI Purifier2,AQ Cinnamon USB cable,Groneberg Quatro Reference IC's
    Spare Room: Antique Sound Labs Wave AV-8 Monoblocks,Tisbury Mini Passive Pre,Tjoeb 99 tube CD player (modified Marantz CD-38),Analysis Plus Oval 9's,Zu Jumpers,AudioEngine B1 Streamer,Klipsch RB-61 v2,SVS PB1000 sub,Blue Jeans RCA IC's
    Living Room: Peachtree Nova Integrated,Cambridge CXN v2 Streamer,Rotel RCD-1072 CD player,Furman 15PFi Power Conditioner,Polk RT265 In Wall Speakers,Polk DSW Pro 660wi sub
  • verbverb Posts: 10,155
    Basement: Polk SDA SRS,Cary SLP-05 Pre,Enlightened Audio Designs CD Transport,Northstar Designs Excelsio DAC,Cambridge 851N streamer,Marantz SA-14 SACD,McIntosh MC300 Amp,Silnote Morpheus Ref2 Digital Cable,Furman 15PFi Power Conditioner,Pangea Power Cables,Wireworld Oasis 8 RCA IC's,MIT Shotgun S3 IC's,MIT Shotgun S1 Bi-Wire speaker cables
    Office: PC,EAR Acute CD Player,EAR 834L Pre,Northstar Designs Intenso DAC,PASS ACA Monoblocks,Denon UDR-F10 Cassette,Acoustic Technologies Classic FR Speakers,SVS SB12 Plus sub,MIT AVt2 speaker cables,IFI Purifier2,AQ Cinnamon USB cable,Groneberg Quatro Reference IC's
    Spare Room: Antique Sound Labs Wave AV-8 Monoblocks,Tisbury Mini Passive Pre,Tjoeb 99 tube CD player (modified Marantz CD-38),Analysis Plus Oval 9's,Zu Jumpers,AudioEngine B1 Streamer,Klipsch RB-61 v2,SVS PB1000 sub,Blue Jeans RCA IC's
    Living Room: Peachtree Nova Integrated,Cambridge CXN v2 Streamer,Rotel RCD-1072 CD player,Furman 15PFi Power Conditioner,Polk RT265 In Wall Speakers,Polk DSW Pro 660wi sub
  • verbverb Posts: 10,155
    Basement: Polk SDA SRS,Cary SLP-05 Pre,Enlightened Audio Designs CD Transport,Northstar Designs Excelsio DAC,Cambridge 851N streamer,Marantz SA-14 SACD,McIntosh MC300 Amp,Silnote Morpheus Ref2 Digital Cable,Furman 15PFi Power Conditioner,Pangea Power Cables,Wireworld Oasis 8 RCA IC's,MIT Shotgun S3 IC's,MIT Shotgun S1 Bi-Wire speaker cables
    Office: PC,EAR Acute CD Player,EAR 834L Pre,Northstar Designs Intenso DAC,PASS ACA Monoblocks,Denon UDR-F10 Cassette,Acoustic Technologies Classic FR Speakers,SVS SB12 Plus sub,MIT AVt2 speaker cables,IFI Purifier2,AQ Cinnamon USB cable,Groneberg Quatro Reference IC's
    Spare Room: Antique Sound Labs Wave AV-8 Monoblocks,Tisbury Mini Passive Pre,Tjoeb 99 tube CD player (modified Marantz CD-38),Analysis Plus Oval 9's,Zu Jumpers,AudioEngine B1 Streamer,Klipsch RB-61 v2,SVS PB1000 sub,Blue Jeans RCA IC's
    Living Room: Peachtree Nova Integrated,Cambridge CXN v2 Streamer,Rotel RCD-1072 CD player,Furman 15PFi Power Conditioner,Polk RT265 In Wall Speakers,Polk DSW Pro 660wi sub
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