COVID-19

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  • shawn474shawn474 Posts: 3,121
    tonyb wrote: »
    What do you think charts represent, numbers.

    Sure we can deal with this again in a year from now, and guess what will also come back, the flu. Were any of you worried about the flu last year ? It's killed way more than the CV, yet you all went about your business just fine.

    Even if the worst comes, if you want to play worst case scenarios, 10 times more dead ? Whats your worst case ? Even at 10 times worse, it won't touch the flu.

    There are so many differences between the flu that you either seem to forget or ignore. THIS ISN’T the flu.....1. People who are sick with the flu stay home from work because they’re symptomatic and actually are only infectious for a short period of time. COVID-19 can occur even if asymptomatic infecting dozens without even knowing it. Ever see one of those STD charts in school.....kinda like that. Exponential potential for infection. 2. There is a vaccine for the flu. Some get it and some don’t. There’s no vaccine available yet.....so there’s no choice for people who are responsible enough to at least consider vaccination. 3. The flu DOES cause sickness and in some cases death - mostly to Immuno-compromised and otherwise vulnerable individuals. Covid-19 is killing otherwise healthy people and that IS scary and deserves reinforcement.

    My political views don’t matter but I can imagine we vote similarly. I have a masters degree is sports medicine and learned early on to separate fact from fiction in biased “studies”. There are plenty of ways to manipulate numbers to support varying arguments - problem is they often don’t matter until the threat is over unfortunately and restrained timely looking at ALL the data; not just bits and pieces.

    Shawn
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  • KexKex Posts: 4,270
    There is finally some good news out of Italy:
    • They had their highest daily death toll on Saturday, almost 800.
    • Yesterday, the death toll was down to 651.
    • Today, it was down further, to 601 (it is now Tuesday in Italy).
    Also, new case numbers are trending strongly downward at last. Yesterday there were almost 5,600 new cases in Italy. Today, that number is down to below 4,800.

    If that trend continues through the week, it's a good indication that their strict social distancing rules are finally starting to show results.

    🇮🇹 Viva Italia! 🇮🇹
    Alea jacta est!
  • shawn474shawn474 Posts: 3,121
    edited March 23
    The traffic accident argument holds no weight here man.....that’s an apples to oranges comparison. There is an inherent assumed risk EVERY TIME you step into an automobile. We all either consciously or subconsciously accept that. You can do EVERYTHING right in this case and still get a virus that has potentially long lasting and even tragic results. Yet there are people who choose to minimize, exploit partial statistics, overinflate others, make comparisons that have zero relevance and quote journals that have such a political bias that they become laughable. (Full disclosure: I am not necessarily saying I don’t disagree with some of them, but using them to support an argument is absolutely undermining any supportive argument you may have.)
    Shawn
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  • tonybtonyb Posts: 32,433
    shawn474 wrote: »
    tonyb wrote: »
    What do you think charts represent, numbers.

    Sure we can deal with this again in a year from now, and guess what will also come back, the flu. Were any of you worried about the flu last year ? It's killed way more than the CV, yet you all went about your business just fine.

    Even if the worst comes, if you want to play worst case scenarios, 10 times more dead ? Whats your worst case ? Even at 10 times worse, it won't touch the flu.

    There are so many differences between the flu that you either seem to forget or ignore. THIS ISN’T the flu.....1. People who are sick with the flu stay home from work because they’re symptomatic and actually are only infectious for a short period of time. COVID-19 can occur even if asymptomatic infecting dozens without even knowing it. Ever see one of those STD charts in school.....kinda like that. Exponential potential for infection. 2. There is a vaccine for the flu. Some get it and some don’t. There’s no vaccine available yet.....so there’s no choice for people who are responsible enough to at least consider vaccination. 3. The flu DOES cause sickness and in some cases death - mostly to Immuno-compromised and otherwise vulnerable individuals. Covid-19 is killing otherwise healthy people and that IS scary and deserves reinforcement.

    My political views don’t matter but I can imagine we vote similarly. I have a masters degree is sports medicine and learned early on to separate fact from fiction in biased “studies”. There are plenty of ways to manipulate numbers to support varying arguments - problem is they often don’t matter until the threat is over unfortunately and restrained timely looking at ALL the data; not just bits and pieces.

    Your missing the point, it doesn't matter how it kills, just that it does. So it can kill healthy people, rarely, but possible, so what. The amount of deaths it has chalked up, by hook or by crook, by any means it can muster, doesn't compare to the other killers we have year after year without anyone bating an eye at.....and we even have vaccines for that one. CV has no vaccines yet and still can't come close even on a world wide platform. It's not the killer, not the boogeyman everyone is being led to believe. We have bigger boogeymen taking lives, that nobody gives a hoot about.
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  • tonybtonyb Posts: 32,433
    Kex wrote: »
    There is finally some good news out of Italy:
    • They had their highest daily death toll on Saturday, almost 800.
    • Yesterday, the death toll was down to 651.
    • Today, it was down further, to 601 (it is now Tuesday in Italy).
    Also, new case numbers are trending strongly downward at last. Yesterday there were almost 5,600 new cases in Italy. Today, that number is down to below 4,800.

    If that trend continues through the week, it's a good indication that their strict social distancing rules are finally starting to show results.

    🇮🇹 Viva Italia! 🇮🇹

    Good, I think the people of Venice have a problem now, they like the canals have cleared up, but they also want the tourist money. They have choices to make. Fish and dolphins can now be seen in the clear waters of the canals.
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  • shawn474shawn474 Posts: 3,121
    edited March 23
    tonyb wrote: »
    shawn474 wrote: »
    tonyb wrote: »
    What do you think charts represent, numbers.

    Sure we can deal with this again in a year from now, and guess what will also come back, the flu. Were any of you worried about the flu last year ? It's killed way more than the CV, yet you all went about your business just fine.

    Even if the worst comes, if you want to play worst case scenarios, 10 times more dead ? Whats your worst case ? Even at 10 times worse, it won't touch the flu.

    There are so many differences between the flu that you either seem to forget or ignore. THIS ISN’T the flu.....1. People who are sick with the flu stay home from work because they’re symptomatic and actually are only infectious for a short period of time. COVID-19 can occur even if asymptomatic infecting dozens without even knowing it. Ever see one of those STD charts in school.....kinda like that. Exponential potential for infection. 2. There is a vaccine for the flu. Some get it and some don’t. There’s no vaccine available yet.....so there’s no choice for people who are responsible enough to at least consider vaccination. 3. The flu DOES cause sickness and in some cases death - mostly to Immuno-compromised and otherwise vulnerable individuals. Covid-19 is killing otherwise healthy people and that IS scary and deserves reinforcement.

    My political views don’t matter but I can imagine we vote similarly. I have a masters degree is sports medicine and learned early on to separate fact from fiction in biased “studies”. There are plenty of ways to manipulate numbers to support varying arguments - problem is they often don’t matter until the threat is over unfortunately and restrained timely looking at ALL the data; not just bits and pieces.

    Your missing the point, it doesn't matter how it kills, just that it does. So it can kill healthy people, rarely, but possible, so what. The amount of deaths it has chalked up, by hook or by crook, by any means it can muster, doesn't compare to the other killers we have year after year without anyone bating an eye at.....and we even have vaccines for that one. CV has no vaccines yet and still can't come close even on a world wide platform. It's not the killer, not the boogeyman everyone is being led to believe. We have bigger boogeymen taking lives, that nobody gives a hoot about.


    I am not missing the point; I choose to formulate my opinion based on fact and true statistics instead of conjecture and innuendo. And there’s the rub - how do you know? What do you know that the experts aren’t telling us? This isn’t over by a long shot. Until we have proven a way to stem the spread, we won’t know the true numbers or fallout for months to come. It seems you assume a lot in this thread. My momma always taught me that assume (in my best Mary voice) makes an A$$ out of U and ME . That is, if I chose to agree, which I most certainly do not. So as you can draw conclusions from the virus, draw conclusions from that statement. 😉
    Shawn
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  • GardenstaterGardenstater Posts: 920
    I'm glad it's starting to look better for Italy.

    You are still comparing apples and oranges and I don't know why you won't try to at least do things on a per capita basis, which is the incidence rate. US has 5.3x the population of Italy.

    The two countries have different procedures for deciding who gets tested. Italy started out trying to test almost everybody but then they shortly switched to only testing those who were severely symptomatic. We started out too strict and now we are ramping up testing in a MASSIVE way and reducing the requirements to get tested.

    You said Italy has tested the same amount as us? How about on a per capita basis? What if they are only testing severely sick patients and missing a lot of the ones we are counting now?

    I just found this, which concurs with a lot of what I have been saying:

    VERIFY: US vs Italy coronavirus comparison leaves out important context

    https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/verify/verify-us-vs-italy-coronavirus-graphs-leave-out-important-context/507-2a93506b-1d8d-4424-a170-a034c9f3dc2c
    George / NJ

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  • shawn474shawn474 Posts: 3,121
    I'm glad it's starting to look better for Italy.

    You are still comparing apples and oranges and I don't know why you won't try to at least do things on a per capita basis, which is the incidence rate. US has 5.3x the population of Italy.

    The two countries have different procedures for deciding who gets tested. Italy started out trying to test almost everybody but then they shortly switched to only testing those who were severely symptomatic. We started out too strict and now we are ramping up testing in a MASSIVE way and reducing the requirements to get tested.

    You said Italy has tested the same amount as us? How about on a per capita basis? What if they are only testing severely sick patients and missing a lot of the ones we are counting now?

    I just found this, which concurs with a lot of what I have been saying:

    VERIFY: US vs Italy coronavirus comparison leaves out important context

    https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/verify/verify-us-vs-italy-coronavirus-graphs-leave-out-important-context/507-2a93506b-1d8d-4424-a170-a034c9f3dc2c

    And once we can test the population necessary to truly show a stagnation or decline in numbers, I agree. We have not tested at the rate or frequency of the other countries. Until then, we just don’t know.

    Shawn
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  • txcoastal1txcoastal1 Posts: 11,230
    shawn474 wrote: »
    I'm glad it's starting to look better for Italy.

    You are still comparing apples and oranges and I don't know why you won't try to at least do things on a per capita basis, which is the incidence rate. US has 5.3x the population of Italy.

    The two countries have different procedures for deciding who gets tested. Italy started out trying to test almost everybody but then they shortly switched to only testing those who were severely symptomatic. We started out too strict and now we are ramping up testing in a MASSIVE way and reducing the requirements to get tested.

    You said Italy has tested the same amount as us? How about on a per capita basis? What if they are only testing severely sick patients and missing a lot of the ones we are counting now?

    I just found this, which concurs with a lot of what I have been saying:

    VERIFY: US vs Italy coronavirus comparison leaves out important context

    https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/verify/verify-us-vs-italy-coronavirus-graphs-leave-out-important-context/507-2a93506b-1d8d-4424-a170-a034c9f3dc2c

    And once we can test the population necessary to truly show a stagnation or decline in numbers, I agree. We have not tested at the rate or frequency of the other countries. Until then, we just don’t know.

    Exactly, so need to compare
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  • GardenstaterGardenstater Posts: 920
    edited March 23
    The US has 5.3x the population of Italy but Italy's population is crammed into an area about the size of Arizona. And we are going to compare the numbers without considering these factors? OK I rest my case.
    George / NJ

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  • shawn474shawn474 Posts: 3,121
    edited March 23
    The US has 5.3x the population of Italy but Italy's population is crammed into an area about the size of Arizona. And we are going to compare the numbers without considering these factors? OK I rest my case.

    Let’s try this again - there is no case to rest until it’s over. There very well could be a million people walking around asymptomatic and not knowing it. Likely will never know if they were positive or not because of an inability to test. Wait until this plays out to make absolutes......nothing is over and numbers can lie. Either way testing is imperative and testing in mass. Once THOSE numbers are available, only then it is “accurate”.
    Shawn
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  • GardenstaterGardenstater Posts: 920
    edited March 23
    Shawn I'm a bit tired but you are trying to have a different argument than what I am saying. There is no need for you to "try again". Why don't you try addressing specifically what I am saying. Until then, I'm done.

    PS: my original post was addressing Kex. Perhaps that is the confusion.
    George / NJ

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  • KexKex Posts: 4,270
    We don’t have access to the data to do what you ask, in part because the U.S. is providing very little of it, and there would be too many variables to control for in any case. At the very least, one would have to factor in people tested per million, as well as cases per million.

    Italy’s current new case rate per day is down to about 8%. In the U.S., it’s approximately 30%.

    Also, the U.S. recovered or dead numbers only add up to 2% of identified cases. Any portion of the remaining 98% could still die, or recover. In Italy, we have a clearer picture, because more than 10% have recovered so far, and fewer than 10% have died, but roughly 80% still have unknown outcome. The final death rate in either country is not knowable with any reasonable accuracy today.

    Every statistical analysis has it’s limitations, but the graph does show that we can expect numbers in the U.S. to far exceed those of Italy. The U.S. now has the second highest case load outside of China, behind only Italy. In all likelihood, the U.S. will exceed Italy within days, and probably China as well, by early April, if not sooner.
    Alea jacta est!
  • nooshinjohnnooshinjohn Posts: 22,677
    I am so friggen angry right now....

    Pharmacy "X", my wife's employer, told them today they will not be providing masks, sanitizer or other supplies to wipe down their pharmacies during this outbreak. They had the balls to tell them they are not considered front-line medical professionals and their risk of exposure is minimal. She sees 400 patients a day and administers 50 plus vaccines in a 9 hour day. How is this not considered front-line?

    In her district, two Doctors of Pharmacy are down, along with several technicians, and one store has been reduced to drive through only. My wife happens to be trained in immunology and infectious diseases, and they treat her like garbage when she should be the one helping them formulate a plan to keep their people safe.

    Their response??? If you don't feel safe, you can go home.
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  • GardenstaterGardenstater Posts: 920
    You do have the access to the data, which is population and land area. Now, if you say you're too lazy to do that work, well I wouldn't fault you because so am I LOL LOL. Good night gents.
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  • shawn474shawn474 Posts: 3,121
    I am so friggen angry right now....

    Pharmacy "X", my wife's employer, told them today they will not be providing masks, sanitizer or other supplies to wipe down their pharmacies during this outbreak. They had the balls to tell them they are not considered front-line medical professionals and their risk of exposure is minimal. She sees 400 patients a day and administers 50 plus vaccines in a 9 hour day. How is this not considered front-line?

    In her district, two Doctors of Pharmacy are down, along with several technicians, and one store has been reduced to drive through only. My wife happens to be trained in immunology and infectious diseases, and they treat her like garbage when she should be the one helping them formulate a plan to keep their people safe.

    Their response??? If you don't feel safe, you can go home.

    That’s awful and I am sorry that’s happening to your wife and family. I hope things change and change quick for her and she gets the necessary supplies to safely perform her job in a time of critical need.

    Shawn
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  • txcoastal1txcoastal1 Posts: 11,230
    Kex wouldn't even read the article I posted so don't feel bad GS
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  • msgmsg Posts: 5,558
    haha, she must've thought she disabled video
    I disabled signatures.
  • JstasJstas Posts: 14,181
    Electrical tape is your friend.
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  • daddyjtdaddyjt Posts: 1,460
    shawn474 wrote: »
    ....There is an inherent assumed risk EVERY TIME you step into an automobile. We all either consciously or subconsciously accept that...

    There is inherent assumed risk in being a human. You can be struck down anywhere, at any time, by a number of things - stroke, heart attack, aneurysm, criminal homicide, lightning strike, tornado, earthquake, and yes - the Wuhan Virus.

    You can choose to live in fear, or you can choose to live....

    Too much stuff to keep track of.

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  • msgmsg Posts: 5,558
    I swear I heard that last bit in Morpheus's voice.
    I disabled signatures.
  • vmaxervmaxer Posts: 4,694
    I am so friggen angry right now....

    Pharmacy "X", my wife's employer, told them today they will not be providing masks, sanitizer or other supplies to wipe down their pharmacies during this outbreak. They had the balls to tell them they are not considered front-line medical professionals and their risk of exposure is minimal. She sees 400 patients a day and administers 50 plus vaccines in a 9 hour day. How is this not considered front-line?

    In her district, two Doctors of Pharmacy are down, along with several technicians, and one store has been reduced to drive through only. My wife happens to be trained in immunology and infectious diseases, and they treat her like garbage when she should be the one helping them formulate a plan to keep their people safe.

    Their response??? If you don't feel safe, you can go home.

    That’s just wrong.
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  • krazypolkkrazypolk Posts: 698
    I am so friggen angry right now....

    Pharmacy "X", my wife's employer, told them today they will not be providing masks, sanitizer or other supplies to wipe down their pharmacies during this outbreak. They had the balls to tell them they are not considered front-line medical professionals and their risk of exposure is minimal. She sees 400 patients a day and administers 50 plus vaccines in a 9 hour day. How is this not considered front-line?

    In her district, two Doctors of Pharmacy are down, along with several technicians, and one store has been reduced to drive through only. My wife happens to be trained in immunology and infectious diseases, and they treat her like garbage when she should be the one helping them formulate a plan to keep their people safe.

    Their response??? If you don't feel safe, you can go home.

    Well at least you'll all be safe at home from now on. She did go home, right?
  • Tony MTony M Posts: 9,024
    Does she work for CVS?
    Most people just listen to music and watch movies. I EXPERIENCE them.
  • nooshinjohnnooshinjohn Posts: 22,677
    krazypolk wrote: »
    I am so friggen angry right now....

    Pharmacy "X", my wife's employer, told them today they will not be providing masks, sanitizer or other supplies to wipe down their pharmacies during this outbreak. They had the balls to tell them they are not considered front-line medical professionals and their risk of exposure is minimal. She sees 400 patients a day and administers 50 plus vaccines in a 9 hour day. How is this not considered front-line?

    In her district, two Doctors of Pharmacy are down, along with several technicians, and one store has been reduced to drive through only. My wife happens to be trained in immunology and infectious diseases, and they treat her like garbage when she should be the one helping them formulate a plan to keep their people safe.

    Their response??? If you don't feel safe, you can go home.

    Well at least you'll all be safe at home from now on. She did go home, right?

    Nope.... she learned the Marine mentality from me. She's gonna fight.
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  • Tony MTony M Posts: 9,024
    edited March 24
    John, Do you have a "Harbor Freight" near you?

    They could maybe mail you some masks and gloves if you don't.
    Most people just listen to music and watch movies. I EXPERIENCE them.
  • krazypolkkrazypolk Posts: 698
    krazypolk wrote: »
    I am so friggen angry right now....

    Pharmacy "X", my wife's employer, told them today they will not be providing masks, sanitizer or other supplies to wipe down their pharmacies during this outbreak. They had the balls to tell them they are not considered front-line medical professionals and their risk of exposure is minimal. She sees 400 patients a day and administers 50 plus vaccines in a 9 hour day. How is this not considered front-line?

    In her district, two Doctors of Pharmacy are down, along with several technicians, and one store has been reduced to drive through only. My wife happens to be trained in immunology and infectious diseases, and they treat her like garbage when she should be the one helping them formulate a plan to keep their people safe.

    Their response??? If you don't feel safe, you can go home.

    Well at least you'll all be safe at home from now on. She did go home, right?

    Nope.... she learned the Marine mentality from me. She's gonna fight.

    Keep safe.
  • KexKex Posts: 4,270
    Agence France Presse (AFP) is announcing that the quarantine is being lifted in Hebei province in China, after two months.

    This is probably the most positive news about COVID-19 since January. Maybe it will impact the markets, too, as it confirms the possibility of an end in sight for everywhere else that’s struggling to comprehend the potential duration and economic impact of quarantines and social distancing.
    • DJIA = November 2016 levels.
    • S&P 500 = December 2016 levels.
    • Nasdaq = November 2017 levels.

    anw1cnxi803x.jpeg
    Alea jacta est!
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